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Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Old 01-07-2010, 09:00 PM   #1
44 70 chip
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

He is an improved QB however his poor fundamentals by them selves will keep him from ever being the guy his supporters want him to be.

As far as the Sanches/Campbell/Cutler thing goes, I noticed a marked lack of allowances for either of the other guys, that Campbell enjoys from his supporters.

Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...
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Old 01-07-2010, 09:15 PM   #2
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...
You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:24 PM   #3
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better.
No he isn't... "you like him better" and "he is better" are two different things man.
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:42 PM   #4
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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No he isn't... "you like him better" and "he is better" are two different things man.
Correct, but in this case, pointing that out is just sour grapes.
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:55 PM   #5
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Career numbers both have played almost the same number of games.

Code:

        Comp % TD%  Int % Yards/attempt Yards Completion QB rating
Campbell 61.2   3.4  2.3      6.6          10.8               82.3
Cutler   61.9   4.6  3.5      7.1          11.6               83.8


Last minute disclaimer: I'm not saying Cutler is the second coming of Brett Favre, but Favre had a season in which he threw 19 TD's and 24 Int's IMO anyone who calls Cutler a failure over this past season is doing it without much basis in reality.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:04 PM   #6
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
Career numbers both have played almost the same number of games.

Code:

        Comp % TD%  Int % Yards/attempt Yards Completion QB rating
Campbell 61.2   3.4  2.3      6.6          10.8               82.3
Cutler   61.9   4.6  3.5      7.1          11.6               83.8


Last minute disclaimer: I'm not saying Cutler is the second coming of Brett Favre, but Fave had a season in which he threw 19 TD's and 24 Int's IMO anyone who calls Cutler a failure over this past season is doing it without much basis in reality.
Not calling Cutler a failure over this season.

I see two very similar quarterbacks statistically, Cutler with a slight edge in most stats, definitive edge in Y/A.

Anecdotally, though, there's some sort of a discount rate that should be applied to Cutler's Denver numbers just because the talent around him definitely could carry the day. I'm not going to dictate what that should be, only that when you consider that Cutler played three seasons in Denver, you'd expect him to have a very large edge in conventional statistics. At least as large as the gap that say, Ben Roethlisberger, has on Campbell.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:00 PM   #7
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).
Cutler had a bad year. It's happens, even to the best guys. One year doesn't define the guy. On top of that he just didn't have any type of supporting cast and he was trying to do too much. His best wr's are the TE's. Kurt Warner had some less than average years and he came back to be a top QB. Cutler rebounded pretty well the last few weeks. I still believe Cutler holds more value around the NFL than JC does.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:06 PM   #8
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Cutler had a bad year. It's happens, even to the best guys. One year doesn't define the guy. On top of that he just didn't have any type of supporting cast and he was trying to do too much. His best wr's are the TE's. Kurt Warner had some less than average years and he came back to be a top QB. Cutler rebounded pretty well the last few weeks. I still believe Cutler holds more value around the NFL than JC does.
Perhaps he does. I think the evidence is clear that Campbell is better, but those who mis-valued Cutler last year are certainly going to be slow to admit the mistake. I mean, just look around here.

Cutler should rebound next season and get back to the top half of quarterbacks in the league, which is where Campbell is right now. I'm sure there's hope that Cutler will eventually regain his probowl form in Chicago, possibly legitimate hope, but I'm not sure why that would be a better bet than Campbell blossoming under Shanahan. Seems like a lot of hoping on both ends.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:21 PM   #9
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Perhaps he does. I think the evidence is clear that Campbell is better, but those who mis-valued Cutler last year are certainly going to be slow to admit the mistake. I mean, just look around here.

Cutler should rebound next season and get back to the top half of quarterbacks in the league, which is where Campbell is right now. I'm sure there's hope that Cutler will eventually regain his probowl form in Chicago, possibly legitimate hope, but I'm not sure why that would be a better bet than Campbell blossoming under Shanahan. Seems like a lot of hoping on both ends.
I disagree, Cutler's passing ability has been appearent IMO even while he was making poor decisions. Jason Campbell's short coming are the same as when he had protection last season and the one before... Campbell has overthrown far too many open receivers to think he's just going through growing pains... When a guy has his good completion % but so few long TD's a very low number of TD passes in general, and such low yard per completion averages... It says he's not an effective down field passer... His Int rate would be stellar if it wasn't for the fact that is it clearly a product of overly conservative decision making.

This conservative decision making is appearent in the stat someone brought up about Campbell being 2 and 16 in games where he's tied or behind by a TD with six minutes left... He's thrown 2 TD's and 4 Int's in those 18 games... When he HAS to make bigger throws he's not mediocre... he's terrible...

Honestly I wish it wasn't the case, he's clearly a likable, tough and personable guy.
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Old 01-08-2010, 11:44 AM   #10
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).


Good article:
Jay Cutler + Red Zone = Disaster
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