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Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Old 03-19-2009, 02:41 PM   #1
GTripp0012
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat View Post
this will be campbells 5th nfl season and third as a full time starter. he played significantly his 2nd season. for the past 4 years hes improved in some areas while remaining stagnant in others. every year, theres a new excuse made for his lack of becoming the elite pro-bowl quarterback we thought he would be when we drafted him. do we really have to make him play out his entire contract before acknowledging that we made a mistake?... before we accept the fact he's just another trent dilfer?

at some point, when you make a bad decision, you have to cut your losses, get what you can for a player (ie trade him) and move on. committing to campbell another year only ensures we let campbell go without compensation and sets us back another year when it comes to finding a long term solution at quarterback.

sticking to jc another year is no different than mopping the decks on the titanic. weve invested too much him already. its time to "abandon ship"
Just ran a very simple regression equation on Campbell using only his prior stats, and of course, assuming 16 starts.

Campbell 09 - 350/557, 3790 yds, 17 TDs, 9 INTs

Yards per Attempt = 6.8
Completion Pecentage = 62.8%

Sacks taken = 31
QB Rating = 86.2

This, of course, assumes the quality of offense around him is on par with the average offense he's had over the past 3 years, which is to say, very sucky.

Abandon ship!
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:26 PM   #2
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
Just ran a very simple regression equation on Campbell using only his prior stats, and of course, assuming 16 starts.

Campbell 09 - 350/557, 3790 yds, 17 TDs, 9 INTs

Yards per Attempt = 6.8
Completion Pecentage = 62.8%

Sacks taken = 31
QB Rating = 86.2

This, of course, assumes the quality of offense around him is on par with the average offense he's had over the past 3 years, which is to say, very sucky.

Abandon ship!
is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:01 PM   #3
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat View Post
is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.
Zorn has a year left to prove himself, I don't think he's going to want to risk it by teaching another QB his system all over again. And you overlook the fact that Cutler's 2nd year was under the same offense and coach.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:47 PM   #4
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat View Post
is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.
You mean, in this offense, with Moss and Randle El as the only targets on the outside, and with no more help on the OL and at TE, 86.2 isn't good enough?

Look, Cutler's a career 3 to 2 TD/INT guy. His career completion percentage is about two points higher than Campbell, but they were equal last year. If I ran Cutler's stats in the Redskins' regression equation (which I can't, accurately at least, because there's zero Cutler on Redskins data), but they'd look something like:

Cutler 09 - 361/575, 4025 yds, 20 TDs, 16 INTs

Yards per Attempt = 7.0 (this is down from Cutler's career average, Skins adjustment)
Completion Pecentage = 62.8%

The QB rating with these numbers would be = 83.6


Which is actually less valuable in the current offense, because the huge increase in INTs would outweigh the TDs and Yds increase pretty significantly.

Cutler is actually really good at not getting sacked, but Campbell is no slouch.

Cutler/Campbell are really no different as prospects. They have basically the same record (16-20 vs. 17-20), and Cutler snuck into the pro bowl in the weaker conference this year, but there's no objective reason to assume one has a low ceiling, and the other could improve forever. That's just perception.
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Old 03-19-2009, 08:11 PM   #5
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

[QUOTE=BigHairedAristocrat;538386]is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.[/QUOTE]

J.C. will never be more than average but he improved dramatically under Zorn? In his first year right? I don't know how he can improve dramatically in one year and be doomed to never be more than average. I'm not ready to put a ceiling on J.C. myself. Not yet.
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