What will your reaction be to: "With the 6th Selection, The Redskins pick...

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Originally Posted by That Guy

by stats, you'd never take a WR in the first round. or a running back. but look at LT, look at how productive randy moss was for minnesota. some players are better than good. fitz wasn't nearly as highly regarded, though he was a safe pick. mike williams is a joke, he ran a 4.6 and he's extremely lazy. should i show you the list of busts at DL? 50% of DEs in the top 10 are busts, so what makes that any safer? would they not be a "marginal" improvement over what we have in the same way as CJ would be a "marginal" improvement over lloyd or randle el?

their outcome on a game is minimal? should teams ONLY draft QBs in the first round then? come on.

I never said anything about "making the safe pick". I was talking purely about positional value. For wide receivers, there is NO benefit to taking one in the top 10 as opposed to between 11-20. None. On top of this, the positional value of a WR is lower than any other player on the offense, and arguably all of the defense also. It's the only position on the field that will be a realtive non factor on more than 1/3 of offensive plays.

Calvin Johnson is (presumably) a far better receiver than Randle El or Lloyd. But are we a better offense with Johnson starting instead of Randle El. Yes, but only by a very very slim margin. There just isn't much significance in the position.

Conversely, if we were to replace Saleve'a with Branch (assuming of course that Branch will be a dominant player just as we presumed Johnson would be), the defense will be SIGNIFICANTLY stronger vs the run. The team would be much better off.

That's positional value. I don't think any position is "safer" than another position. I think that (4 year starting) seniors are always safer picks than underclassmen, simply because there is so much film on them. If a senior has bust potential, surely there will be red flags that scouts will find. If an underclassman has bust potential, there might not be adequate film on him, and some red flags may sneak beneath the scouts observations. I don't think Larry Fitzgerald was a safe pick though. He came out of school early, and thats never a "safe" thing. I remember him being regarded as the "best player in college football," and he was the 3rd pick--so don't say he wasn't highly regarded.