Redskins on NFL Live Monday 2/19

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by sportscurmudgeon

The problem here seems to me that if Randle-El had signed for a $1M signing bonus and $1M a year salary, everyone would be falling all over themselves saying what a great value he was. And that would be absolutely true if he had signed for such a paltry number.

The fact is that he's a $10M bonus purchase plus annual salary increments. That's what he is; so you kind of have to evaluate him and the value he brings to the team against what he cost. It's kind of like the Mark Brunell situation; if Brunell was making the veretan minimum with no signing bonus money to amortize, he'd be a lot better value as "quarterbacking depth" than he is now.

Randle-El is much better than Archuletta who also got $10M to sign a contract here. But being better than Archuletta last year is hardly a form of high praise.

So in order to try not to be offensive, might I suggest that Randle-El's performance on the field - taking into account all of his field position contributions and receptions and gadget plays - did not merit a $10M signing bonus.

And by the way, all of his accomplishments yielded a 5-11 record... Had he not signed here and had the Skins kept that $10M in the bank, would the record have been all that much worse? I don't think so...

Why do we complain about "lack of continuity" then complain about a player's performance after just one season.

GTripp, here's a project for you. Find out how Wide Receivers did in their first year playing for a new team following a trade or free agent move the past few years. See if there's a significant drop-off, on average, when a receiver has a new system to play in

[724Skinsfan]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

Why do we complain about "lack of continuity" then complain about a player's performance after just one season.

GTripp, here's a project for you. Find out how Wide Receivers did in their first year playing for a new team following a trade or free agent move the past few years. See if there's a significant drop-off, on average, when a receiver has a new system to play in

GTripp, here's a project for you. Find out how ANY PLAYER did in their first year playing for a new team following a trade or free agent move the past few years. See if there's a significant drop-off, on average, when ANY PLAYER has a new system to play in

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by 724Skinsfan

GTripp, here's a project for you. Find out how ANY PLAYER did in their first year playing for a new team following a trade or free agent move the past few years. See if there's a significant drop-off, on average, when ANY PLAYER has a new system to play in

Drew Brees?

[724Skinsfan]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

Drew Brees?

Daunte Culpepper?

[Beemnseven]

And again, the point is not to bust on ARE because maybe he did the best he could for the action he saw.

It's more of a critique of the front office for paying that type of money for a guy with such a limited role, on a team that's supposedly committed to the run, when they already tossed a 3rd and 4th round draft picks for Brandon Lloyd. Plus you had Thrash (who everyone SAYS is immeasurably valuable to his team both as a player and a "leader") and David Patten doing practically nothing.

It's not so much the players that they choose, it's the hideous misallocation of available resources that make these decisions so potentially damaging to the team in the long run.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by 724Skinsfan

Daunte Culpepper?

Donte Stallworth? Jeff Garcia?

[724Skinsfan]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

Donte Stallworth? Jeff Garcia?

Those two seem to help justify. Garcia from the 49er's to the Browns did terrible and even worse with the Lions. Stallworth's yard per catch shot up with the Eagles in 2006 but he had less receptions, yards and TD's with the Eagles than he did with the Saints in 2005.

Here's some more:]Edgerrin James, Deion Branch, Lavernues Coles (to the Jets), David Patten, Jevon Kearse, Aaron Brooks, Marty Booker, Alvin Harper (I had to put that one in there).

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by 724Skinsfan

Those two seem to help justify. Garcia from the 49er's to the Browns did terrible and even worse with the Lions. Stallworth's yard per catch shot up with the Eagles in 2006 but he had less receptions, yards and TD's with the Eagles than he did with the Saints in 2005.

Here's some more:]Edgerrin James, Deion Branch, Lavernues Coles (to the Jets), David Patten, Jevon Kearse, Aaron Brooks, Marty Booker, Alvin Harper (I had to put that one in there).

Oh, come on. Garcia's got everyone wondering if there's going to be an open camp for quarterbacks in Philly. Stallworth was widely regarded as a solid pickup for the Eagles.

I've got more too ... Steve McNair, Javon Walker, Jabar Gaffney, Steve Hutchinson, Terrell Owens (his 1st year in Philly).

And your example of Daunte Culpepper works against your own argument. Lumping ARE with him doesn't help your stance. After all, we know that it's rare when a first year free agent steps right in and does well in their first season with a new team.

My point was to illustrate that it DOES happen -- just not to the Redskins.

[brent]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

Oh, come on. Garcia's got everyone wondering if there's going to be an open camp for quarterbacks in Philly. Stallworth was widely regarded as a solid pickup for the Eagles.

I've got more too ... Steve McNair, Javon Walker, Jabar Gaffney, Steve Hutchinson, Terrell Owens (his 1st year in Philly).

And your example of Daunte Culpepper works against your own argument. Lumping ARE with him doesn't help your stance. After all, we know that it's rare when a first year free agent steps right in and does well in their first season with a new team.

My point was to illustrate that it DOES happen -- just not to the Redskins.

The point is that ARE wasn't worth the contract for what he did in Pittsburgh, let alone what he did in Washington. He wasn't worth $10M in Pittsburgh, so that he's not worth $10M in Washington is no surprise at all. He's not a free agent bust in the sense that he had production that disappeared after he was acquired.

[SmootSmack]

Here GTripp, you can start with this

Chris Smith - Wide Receivers That Change Teams

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

GTripp, here's a project for you. Find out how Wide Receivers did in their first year playing for a new team following a trade or free agent move the past few years. See if there's a significant drop-off, on average, when a receiver has a new system to play in

Will do.

I used Football Outsiders DVOA metrics to try to keep it simple.

One stat that attempts to be all inclusive. It's not perfect because wide receivers don't handle the ball as much as RBs or QBs do, nor can this stat show how efficient a guy is at blocking. Just receiving and getting upfield after the catch.

One thing I have to point out; this is a per play statistic. Therefore a ranking of 18 doesn't necessarily mean the 18th best receiver in the league. It means on the plays he had, he did better than all but 17 guys in the league (In 2006, Devery Henderson finished no. 1 in WR DVOA. No one in their right mind thinks that Devery Henderson is the leagues top WR right now, but he was the best per play [as a 3rd WR] in 2006. So by this metric, 3rd receivers are going to be overvalued.). Don't pay attention to the ranking number itself, pay attention to the ranking relative to the other players in the study. That's where the accuracy is. Any ranking in the top 20 is top of the league caliber. League average is about rank # 40, but varies by year.

2006
Terell Owens PHI->DAL 2006 rank: 28, 2005 rank: 32
Antwaan Randle El PIT->WAS 2006 rank: 76, 2005 rank: 77
Brandon Lloyd SF->WAS 2006 rank: 80, 2005 rank: 82
Mike Furrey StL->DET 2006 rank: 27, 2005 rank: N/A
Javon Walker GB->DEN 2006 rank: 30, 2004* rank: 22
Reche Caldwell SD->NE 2006 rank: 32, 2005 rank: N/A
Donte Stallworth NO->PHI 2006 rank: 35, 2005 rank: 44
Joe Jurevicius SEA->CLE 2006 rank: 29, 2005 rank: 10
Eric Moulds BUF->HOU 2006 rank: 37, 2005 rank: 64
Deion Branch NE->SEA 2006 rank: 53, 2005 rank: 13
Keyshawn Johnson DAL->CAR 2006 rank: 60, 2005 rank: 52
Antonio Bryant CLE->SF 2006 rank: 57, 2005 rank: 31

2005
Santana Moss NYJ->WAS 2005 rank: 5, 2004 rank: 8
Derrick Mason TEN->BAL 2005 rank: 25, 2004 rank: 43
Joe Jurevicius TB->SEA 2005 rank: 10, 2003* rank:
Randy Moss MIN->OAK 2005 rank: 36, 2004 rank: 15
Travis Taylor BAL->MIN 2005 rank: 42, 2004 rank: 80
Laverneus Coles WAS->NYJ 2005 rank: 56, 2004 rank: 71
Plaxico Burress PIT->NYG 2005 rank: 66, 2004 rank: 4
Ike Hilliard NYG->TB 2005 rank: 58, 2004 rank: 81
Mushin Muhammad CAR->CHI 2005 rank: 78, 2004 rank: 16
Az Hakim DET->NO 2005 rank: 18, 2004 rank: 19
Koren Robinson SEA->MIN 2005 rank: 55, 2004 rank: 48
David Patten NE->WAS 2005 rank: 89, 2004 rank: 30

2004
Justin McCareins TEN->NYJ 2004 rank: 23, 2003 rank: 4
Terrell Owens SF->PHI 2004 rank: 17, 2003 rank: 43
Marcus Robinson BAL->MIN 2004 rank: 36, 2003 rank: 19

These results show that a receiver rarely suffers a significant drop in production in his first year in a system. Generally a good receiver is a good receiver, and a bad receiver is a bad receiver.

Notice what happened to David Patten (or Mushin Muhammad) in 2005 though...ouch.

Also, Santana Moss is some sort of ridiculous outlier. Admittedly, he was already a top of the class receiver in New York who flew under the radar (and these numbers show that trading Coles for him was great any way you slice it), but to finish among the top 5 in per play value in his first season here is freakin unbelievable.

*-prior year lacked adequate sample size

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

Here GTripp, you can start with this

Chris Smith - Wide Receivers That Change Teams

That could have saved some time.

[SmootSmack]

LOL. You actually did it! You're like Tattoo to my Ricardo Montalban, Abu to my Aladdin, Boo Boo to my Yogi...and so on

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

LOL. You actually did it! You're like Tattoo to my Ricardo Montalban, Abu to my Aladdin, Boo Boo to my Yogi...and so on

Ricardo Montalban?

Seriously though, were you expecting me not to or something?

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Ricardo Montalban?

Seriously though, were you expecting me not to or something?

Damn you're young. Somewhere JoeRedskin is crying that you don't know who Mr. Corinthian leather is. Maybe you know him better as Mr. Rourke

I'm impressed you got it done so quickly