What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[30gut]

Imo the draft is about probability as much as it is about evaluation.
Anytime you pass/give away a pick or multiple picks to make 1 pick you're reducing the opportunities to improve your team or a acquire a great player.
In short 4 chances are better then 1 chance.

Unless of course Luck will be the last great QB prospect ever.
Case in point trading up: the Jets traded up to get Sanchez but don't you think they would have been better off drafting Freeman and keeping the picks they traded?

It doesn't make sense to trade picks for Luck or anyother draft pick unless you believe in that player is all you need to win the Super Bowl.