Data Post #2...

[sportscurmudgeon]

There is plenty of sentiment here for Rex Grossman to be the Skins' QB come opening day of the 2011 season - - if there is a 2011 season. Many folks also seem to believe that his starting role should be accompanied by the acquisition of a young QB to be groomed for the future. So be it..

I have THREE data postings to place here on The Warpath.

There is no hidden agenda; these are data. I have no expectation that these data will make a significant impression on the folks who live on hopes and dreams. But data are data...

Drafting a "Top Rated QB"

Since the Skins' disillusionment with Donovan McNabb is the cause of the current Skins' QB discussion, I went back to 1999 when McNabb was drafted into the NFL. Here are the first round and second round QBs taken since then:

1999:

Tim Couch - - wasted pick
Donovan McNabb - - 5 NFC Conference game appearances
Akili Smith - - wasted pick
Duante Culpepper - - mediocre career possibly due to serious knee injury.
Cade McNown - - wasted pick
Shaun King - - wasted pick

2000:

Chad Pennington - - neither a wasted pick nor a great pick


2001:

Michael Vick - - great pick some seasons; horrid pick other seasons.
Drew Brees - - great pick; a steal in the second round
Quincy Carter - - wasted pick
Marques Tuiasosopu - - wasted pick


2002:

David Carr - - not a great pick; cut some slack given the sacks he took.
Joey Harrington - - wasted pick
Patrick Ramsey - - wasted pick


2003:

Carson Palmer - - good pick not great
Byron Leftwich - - good pick not great
Kyle Boller - - wasted pick
Rex Grossman - - good pick not great


2004 (a vintage year):

Eli Manning - - great pick
Philip Rivers - - great pick
Ben Roethlisberger - - great pick
JP Losman - - wasted pick


2005:

Alex Smith - - wasted pick
Aaron Rodgers - - great pick
Jason Campbell - - good pick not a great pick


2006:

Vince Young - - great pick some days; wasted pick on other days
Matt Leinart - - wasted pick
Jay Cutler - - wasted pick till this year; now looks like a great pick?
Kellen Clemens - - wasted pick


2007:

JaMarcus Russell - - wasted pick (maybe worse than Ryan Leaf???)
Brady Quinn - - wasted pick so far
Kevin Kolb - - wasted pick so far
John Beck - - wasted pick so far
Drew Stanton - - wasted pick so far


2008:

Matt Ryan - - great pick
Joe Flacco - - great pick
Brian Brohm - - wasted pick so far
Chad Henne - - wasted pick so far


2009 (another vintage year?):

Matthew Stafford - - good pick if injuries stop
Mark Sanchez - - good pick so far
Josh Freeman - - good pick so far
Pat White - - wasted pick so far


2010:

Sam Bradford - - great pick
Tim Tebow - - who knows?
Jimmy Clausen - - who knows - but not looking so good so far.


By my count 45 QBs have been taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft since 1999. There are some Super Bowl winners here; there are some very productive QBs here; there are some solid starters here.

There are ALSO 21 QBs that I have to give the comment "wasted pick" or "wasted pick so far". Statisically, 47% of these picks do not turn out to have been good moves.

Remember, EVERY QB taken in the first two rounds had to have someone in the scouting department of the team that took him wildly enthusiastic about his prospects in the NFL. Even if Danny Boy ran the draft himself, he would not throw darts at a draft board to determine his selections.

Drafting a QB early is a risk from a financial/salary cap standpoint and from a performance on the field standpoint. Therefore, is it worth a risk to spend other draft picks to trade-up? How "certain" would you have to be that the guy you are trading up to take is a Matt Ryan and not a JaMarcus Russell?

By the way, look at the QBs who were the first QBs taken in the draft. (I have listed them in drafting order above.) Vick, Palmer, Manning, Ryan, Stafford(?) and Bradford either turned out great or appear to be headed for stardom. That is only 6 out of 12 or 50%. Half of the QBs taken first in the draft have been wasted picks or just "Meh!"