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[Lotus]

Originally Posted by GMScud

washingtonpost.com

Boswell made several good points in that article. My expectations are tempered at around the 8 win mark. Anyone thinking more is pretty much setting themselves up for disappointment. Some highlights:

In the last 20 years, 18 teams that went 4-12 switched coaches. Their average record the next season was 7-9.

Is there even a chance the Redskins could make the playoffs? Sure, there is. Unfortunately, it's just not much of a chance - less than 20 percent. Since '90, there have been 54 teams that lost 11 or more games, then got a new coach before the next season. How many made the playoff the first year? Ten of 54, or just 19 percent.

For the Redskins to reach 9-7 this season - a winning record and a mark that might get them into the playoffs - they would have to win five more games than last year. How rare is that? You guessed it: Darn rare. In the last 20 years, 115 NFL teams have changed coaches after the season. Just 17 of them - or 14.9 percent - improved by five wins. That should be sobering. But it gets worse. Of the 17 teams that showed big jumps, how many went backward in the new coach's second season? Answer: 13 of the 17.

Washington plays seven games against teams that won 11 to 14 games last year and four more against .500-or-better teams. That's not a schedule. It's a 113-day final examination.

You want me to tell you that the history book says that everything will be dandy by 2011. Sorry, another wrong answer.
Let's go back to those 115 coaching changes since '90. How many of those franchises had improved by five wins - which it would take to get the Redskins to 9-7 - by the end of Year Two? Only 22 teams - or 19 percent - met that high standard.

Expectations are premeditated resentments folks. Don't expect more than .500 from this team. Hell, that would would be twice as many wins as 2009.

Or you could drink Kool-Aid only to be horribly defeated. I for one am done going that route.

Although I appreciate the sobering numbers, Boswell would have been better off looking at teams which changed coaches AND GMs. Situations like Matt Millen changing coaches should not count here - we got rid of Cerrato.