2024 Early Bird Draft Thread

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by mooby

I wanna expand on this line Quake so bear with me. Let's look at all the Super Bowl winning qb's since the year 1999 (which can be argued is a turning point in modernizing passing offenses).

99 - Kurt Warner (HOFer, undrafted, original team)
00 - Trent Dilfer (backup, HOF defense, 1st round, 2nd team)
01 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
02 - Brad Johnson (solid, HOF defense, 9th round, 3rd team)
03- Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
04 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
05 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
06 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, original team)
07 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense, 1st round, original team)
08 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
09 - Drew Brees (HOFer, 2nd round, 2nd team)
10 - Aaron Rodgers (HOFer, 1st round, original team)
11 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense,1st round, original team)
12 - Joe Flacco (above average, clutch, good defense, 1st round, original team)
13 - Russell Wilson (elite qb, good defense, 3rd round, original team)
14 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
15 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, 2nd team)
16 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
17 - Nick Foles (backup qb, clutch, 3rd round, original team)
18 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
19 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
20 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, 2nd team)
21 - Matt Stafford (elite, good defense, 1st overall, 2nd team)
22 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
23 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)

Let's remove Brady from the equation because he's the GOAT and an anomaly - the odds of another qb winning 7 titles is slim because Brady took care of himself/seeking every competitive edge well into his 40's). The odds of drafting the next Brady are incredibly slim (as of 2021 there were 721 qb's who played in the NFL and Brady is 1 of 721, meaning you have a roughly 0.13% odds of finding the next Brady).

Highlights - With Brady out Mahomes is 2nd in line to the throne with 3 titles. He was drafted 11th overall. Out of the 25 year sample size (remove 7 for Brady) the other 18 years 11 of those titles came from 1st round qb's still with their original team.

Let's expand on that a bit. How many teams won titles with a qb they drafted in the 1st round? Of those 18 non-Brady years, 11 titles were won by teams with original drafted qb's in the first round (Both Manning brothers - 3 titles, Mahomes - 3 titles, Roethlisberger - 2 titles, Flacco/Wilson/Rodgers - 1 title ea). So that's a roughly 60% chance of winning a title with the qb you drafted in the first round. Good odds, but not overwhelming. Obviously you need a solid to great defense and some playmakers who can perform in clutch moments.

Looking at this from another angle in the last 6 years Nick Foles was the only non-first round qb to win a title. Stafford was on his 2nd team but they paid a premium for him. Mahomes and Brady are the other winners.

Yet another angle: 19 out of 25 years a qb won the SB with their original team. Remove Brady from the equation and it drops to 12/18.

Just to summarize - qb is one of those positions you gotta keep swinging at. I wasn't a fan of this approach but if you don't have a good qb you are wasting seasons in this league. If you know your guy isn't the guy you gotta keep swinging until you find the guy. I believe Daniels or Maye will be the choice and we'll also take a developmental guy at the end of the draft. The odds of you winning a SB with some other guy's QB are slimmer than finding the guy, whether that be in the first round or otherwise. But if you are gonna win with a qb that wasn't drafted in the first round he better have an amazing complimentary defense.

first round definitely makes a difference but what is interesting how many of the 23 you listed were or were not the darlings of their draft class say in the top 3 or 5 picks; basically who the media drooled over before the draft like (JD CW and DM)

Mahomes and Josh Allen definitely were not debated before their drafts as the next great things

I also say SB wins probably isn't the absolute measuring stick of QB success; I be very happy with Josh Allen or i suppose Lamar right now and competing for a chance at a SB ring