Football Outsiders Picks Redskins to Make Postseason

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Except he really didn't say "if," he essentially said "when." And at this point things are not that certain. If the young guys end up taking the roster spots, then Tanier's argument is deeply flawed.

Well I think he could have doubled the essay size and wrote something that looked at the other side of the Redskins plight if things start to unexpectedly turn upward in the player development category, and then his piece probably wouldn't have come off on such a negative slant.

The biggest problems are that 1) the pure quantity of young talent isn't that high because of traded draft choices and also because of Vinny's curious tendency to spend mid and late round picks on special teams projects who end up not being able to keep Byron freakin Westbrook off the roster, and 2) the young talent that was drafted under Vinny (outside of Orakpo) appears unlikely to develop. There's still time, of course. It's just not very promising, which is why I don't have my faith invested in the outcome of Devin Thomas/Malcolm Kelly/Chad Rinehart/Kevin Barnes anymore. We could theoretically still get four quality starters from that group. If we got two quality starters, everyone on the board would take that average return from those two 2s and two 3s.

I think it's likely we'll get just one of the four: Kelly.

Barnes and Rinehart are blocked by vets right now (Buchanon and Artis Hicks) which is why I say the team appears uninterested in developing talent when it's so easy to sign a cheap vet and ignore that you ever used a draft choice at the position. Thomas and Kelly are still blocked by the promise of each other, but at least no longer by Randle El. If one or the other can play, we will certainly know by year's end.