Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter
It's really not just as simple as BPA. I do think teams go into the draft with the players ranked and the BPA strategy in mind, and they try to stick to that, but no team sticks to that exclusively when it’s time for them to execute in reality. Ultimately, if they decide another position is more valuable, or another player is more of a fit for the system and they believe he will turn into a productive player, they will stray from the BPA strategy.
For example, if the highest rated player on their board when they pick at #19 is a defensive end, I guarantee you they won't draft him. They'll take the next highest ranked player at a position of need, who fits their system (or they'll try to trade out).
Last year it was easy in the first round. Chase Young was the best player in the draft. For Jacksonville this year, it's easy. Trevor Lawrence has been the #1 pick in the 2021 draft for about four years now.
It's not always that cut and dry though. That's why they get 10 minutes to make a selection, and most of them take it all.
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If highest rated DE, you trade down, as you noted. But the truth is taking a player at any position except DL would be okay with 1st round pick this year, so odds are a player you can use is there.
If player ranked #10 or #12 on board sitting there at 19, you take them. If players ranked 18,19,20 are, and minor difference in talent grade, need factors in. Good teams don't pigeonhole need with high picks, long term you end up MUCH more talented by going BPA early rounds. If you go BPA for a decade with 10 1st round picks, versus drafting guys slotted much lower for need, your roster is MUCH, MUCH more talented.
Later in draft there will generally be more players with similar grades, easier to target need, though some players will always drop. You go BPA consistently, round out with FA. That is how dynasties are built.