Better Rookie Season Stats Griffin or Luck?

[30gut]

Simply put I'm asking: which QB (Griffin/Luck) will put up better stats?

Here's some false assumptions about my question:

o I'm not saying that stats are more important then WINs you would think this goes without saying (especially since I actually say that first and foremost I want more WINs)

o I'm not making a value judgement nor a using their rookie season stats as an indication or predictive measure of their respective careers

I'm just curious about the our perceptions or expectations of Griffin and Lucks rookie seasons statistical production.

I'm also curious about what type of rookie season production (if any) that Luck needs to hold on to the mantle of being a both a better prospect then Cam Newton and the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway.

[30gut]

Maybe a poll would make things simpler?

[CRedskinsRule]

30Gut - I think you keep confusing the issue when you tack on as an after thought about what Luck needs to do to prove/disprove the best prospect issue, as that probably is a long term question. Really will take 2 years at least to answer that statement.

Your OP/thread topic is a lot easier. I think Griffin has the better first season stats, he is coming into an offense/defense that has been together, and can fit into with his piece. In other words, we aren't building a lot of new pieces, even the WR's we added are veterans, and should just plug in, as opposed to rookies trying to figure out the whole NFL thing. Compare that to the Colts who have new everything and will take a year to get the whole offensive scheme and direction, plus having many new players, and losing lots of key veterans.

[30gut]

btw-
thanks for getting the thread back on track

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

30Gut - I think you keep confusing the issue when you tack on as an after thought about what Luck needs to do to prove/disprove the best prospect issue, as that probably is a long term question. Really will take 2 years at least to answer that statement.

Of course it takes more then a rookie season to predict or know what type a QB a rookie will become.(I believe it takes about 36 starts depending on schematic continuity)
But, again I'm not asking for a career prediction based on this season.
I'm asking for opinion on whether or not there is a benchmark level of production Luck(i.e. the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway) needs to reach THIS season to justify the hype.

And if someone thinks there is a statistical benchmark what is it?

Maybe there is no rookie year benchmark for some people.
Maybe some think regardless of his rookie year production the hype is warranted?

Maybe some think production on par with Blaine Gabbert is good enough to warrant his hype or maybe some others think production on must be at least on par with Andy Dalton?

Its just something I'm curious about that I didn't think warrants its own thread, so I figured it fit here.*shrugs*

I think Griffin has the better first season stats,

Cool, what do you think the ballpark will be? Close or wide margin?

Compare that to the Colts who have new everything and will take a year to get the whole offensive scheme and direction, plus having many new players, and losing lots of key veterans.

When I look at the success of Dalton and Newton in their new schemes without the benefit of an offseason, I have a hard time considering everything being new a stumbling block.
I think the Colts have replaced almost as many pieces as they've lost and still have enough pieces to field a quality offense.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Maybe a poll would make things simpler?

Added a poll...attempted to show no bias whatsoever

[los panda]

the "your washington redskins" part reminded me of this


i don't even like pro basketball, the bulls, or alan parsons but their intro used to give me goosbumps.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Added a poll...attempted to show no bias whatsoever

Thanks.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 30gut

btw-
thanks for getting the thread back on track

Of course it takes more then a rookie season to predict or know what type a QB a rookie will become.(I believe it takes about 36 starts depending on schematic continuity)
But, again I'm not asking for a career prediction based on this season.
I'm asking for opinion on whether or not there is a benchmark level of production Luck(i.e. the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway) needs to reach THIS season to justify the hype.

And if someone thinks there is a statistical benchmark what is it?

Maybe there is no rookie year benchmark for some people.
Maybe some think regardless of his rookie year production the hype is warranted?

Maybe some think production on par with Blaine Gabbert is good enough to warrant his hype or maybe some others think production on must be at least on par with Andy Dalton?

Its just something I'm curious about that I didn't think warrants its own thread, so I figured it fit here.*shrugs*

It's fine to put it in here, I was just saying why I thought the two questions kept getting mixed.

I don't think 1st year production means much to long term prospect status. We all know Peyton had more INTs than TD's, and my first memory of Elway is him lining up behind the tackle not the center. The question will be how he masters and runs the offense, something neither ADalton or CNewton did, they just let their athleticism and ability show through, and their coaches allowed that to happen.

Originally Posted by 30gut

Cool, what do you think the ballpark will be? Close or wide margin?

Not very good at stats, just because there are so many variables, but here is a shot at it:

Luck 62% completion, 3100 yds (lots of completions with very little YAC), 23 TD/22 INT, 300 yds rushing, 4 Rushing TD

Griffin 67% completion, 3800 yds( some good YAC from Santana and FD/Cooley) 26TD/14INT, 700 yd rushing, 5 Rushing TD

Originally Posted by 30gut

When I look at the success of Dalton and Newton in their new schemes without the benefit of an offseason, I have a hard time considering everything being new a stumbling block.
I think the Colts have replaced almost as many pieces as they've lost and still have enough pieces to field a quality offense.

See above. I think people forget the Defenses had no offseason either. The fact that the Colts are coming in with a whole new staff, and booted many of their starting offensive players, Saturday, Clark, Garcon, simply means that more players are learning and starting for the first time. By definition that means that many players are learning the speed of the NFL game for the first time, and that should have an impact on the offensive output. You didn't have that in either Carolina or Cincinatti last year, there were a few pieces replaced, but not wholesale purging like Indy.

[GTripp0012]

Thing is, we're all going to have to answer this question come fantasy draft season and there's no one out there who will be taking Luck ahead of Griffin in their fantasy draft.

So while the contrarian answer is that Luck will do better, the easy answer is Griffin will have better rookie numbers. Maybe (hopefully?) by a large margin.

[Monkeydad]

Who was the one traitor?

I have a good guess.

[SBXVII]

I still think this question has the obvious answer....

the Redskins have been in rebuild for 2 yrs and now have many pieces to the puzzle to include finally a QB. The Colts are just now starting to rebuild which means new scheme, new system, new players in key positions, new coaching staff, etc. etc. etc.

The Skins are farther ahead then the Colts are and should have a better season since the team picked up better WR's, a better QB, and better pieces to the defense.

[mooby]

I voted for Luck. Why? Because I felt like someone had to. And then I saw the results and realized I'm not the only one who felt that way.

[30gut]

i'm surprised by how lopsided the turn out
granted there was gonna to be some homerism
and i think negative perception of the Colts talent level plays a role too
interesing stuff,

I think Luck and Griffin are gonna have similar statistical production

Luck is gonna benefit from having the decidedly pass heavy Bruce Arians as his OC
Especially since the plan is to basically run a mix of Stanford offense using Peyton Manning's rookie season as the blue print

If given carte blanche Arians/Luck will pass the ball a ton and inflate Luck's stats
I'm sure developing Luck will come first and wouldn't be surprised if Arians throws the ball 3 times in a row everytime they're on goalline just to get Luck a TD

Luck 3,800 26/22

Griffin 3,600 23/17

[MTK]

Originally Posted by 30gut

i'm surprised by how lopsided the turn out
granted there was gonna to be some homerism
and i think negative perception of the Colts talent level plays a role too
interesing stuff,

I think Luck and Griffin are gonna have similar statistical production

Luck is gonna benefit from having the decidedly pass heavy Bruce Arians as his OC
Especially since the plan is to basically run a mix of Stanford offense using Peyton Manning's rookie season as the blue print

If given carte blanche Arians/Luck will pass the ball a ton and inflate Luck's stats
I'm sure developing Luck will come first and wouldn't be surprised if Arians throws the ball 3 times in a row everytime they're on goalline just to get Luck a TD

Luck 3,800 26/22

Griffin 3,600 23/17

What's your reasoning?

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by 30gut;918175[B

]i'm surprised by how lopsided the turn out
granted there was gonna to be some homerism [/B]
and i think negative perception of the Colts talent level plays a role too
interesing stuff,

I think Luck and Griffin are gonna have similar statistical production

Luck is gonna benefit from having the decidedly pass heavy Bruce Arians as his OC
Especially since the plan is to basically run a mix of Stanford offense using Peyton Manning's rookie season as the blue print

If given carte blanche Arians/Luck will pass the ball a ton and inflate Luck's stats
I'm sure developing Luck will come first and wouldn't be surprised if Arians throws the ball 3 times in a row everytime they're on goalline just to get Luck a TD

Luck 3,800 26/22

Griffin 3,600 23/17

Lots of Kool Aide drinking going on around here, self included.