Meet The Candidates: 2012 GOP Thread

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

Not a good one though.

Why not?

[Chico23231]

Perry challenges Virginia ballot rules – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Well FD, your dream of voting for Mitt Romney in the VA primary is looks like a done deal. Poor Newt Dogg and the village idiot Perry

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Why not?

A lot of independents I know aren't very fond of presidents named Bush. It's kind of like being a hedge fund manager and getting a vote of confidence from Bernie Madoff.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Perry challenges Virginia ballot rules – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Well FD, your dream of voting for Mitt Romney in the VA primary is looks like a done deal. Poor Newt Dogg and the village idiot Perry

When did I ever say that I supported Mitt? I don't think I have said I support anyone so far.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by firstdown

When did I ever say that I supported Mitt? I don't think I have said I support anyone so far.

FD your gonna vote Ron Paul in the primary?

[mlmpetert]

I think this could turn into the wildest election in a very long time. At the end of the day I think Romney is going to get the nomination, but depending on how that happens and leading up to it I think we could see some wild things.

If Paul wins Iowa then I think he will win New Hampshire by a lot. I got no idea about So. Carolina or Florida, but theyre both primaries and not caucuses so everyone in the state can vote, which I think gives Paul an advantage. 3 of those 4 states may help him in Nevada’s caucus, but I think Romney wins Nevada with its many Mormons. Either way I think the late primaries become the most important they have been in quite some time if Paul wins Iowa, New Hampshire and either SC or FL and has a strong showing in Nevada (very possible).

So I say all that because I think Paul doing that or something similar may set up 2 nightmare scenarios for the GOP:

1) Romney steals the nomination from Paul, so Paul steals the presidency from Romney by running as a third party guy. Honestly im not entirely positive Paul would steal the presidency from Romney if forced to run as a third Party guy. Since everyone likes to compare Obama to Carter, maybe in this scenario it would be fair to compare Ron Paul to John Anderson. While I think the majority of the votes for Paul would be considered “stolen” from Romney, I think a lot would come from Obama’s camp too. Still id be shocked if Romney won with Paul also running.

2) Paul wins the GOP nomination. The chances of this happening are still extremely slim, although now legitimately imaginable. If this were to happen Donald Trump could garner support from guys like O’Riliey, Rush and Hannity and run as an independent. Trump hates it when people ignore him and this could make him relevant again.

There may be a silver lining for “conservatives” with either of these scenarios, although after the last 2 weeks of hearing people bash Ron Paul and say hes not a conservative I honestly don’t know what “conservative” means anymore…. Obviously Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson’s seat is opening up and with either of the above playing out I think youll get an even bigger republican voting (proportional to democrat voting) turnout in 2012, making a Republican replacement for that seat and many others all the more likely. I thought the GOP had a legit shot at the Senate before Nelson’s retirement but now they have an even better shot.

Things are set up to be what I think are the craziest in a very long time…. I mean for God’s sake Ron Paul actually kind of has a chance of getting the Republican nomination.

[12thMan]

Interesting analysis.

There's a good chance Ron Paul wins Iowa next week. I think the question is by how much of a margin. If Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich (though it appears Rick Santorum is surging) are all bunched together, I don't think it matters as much. There's very little chance Ron Paul wins New Hampshire. For that to happen would be just an incredible turn of events and would damn near sink Mitt Romney.

That said, Ron Paul is the X factor. If he decides to become a third party candidate it could hurt President Obama as much, if not more so, than Mitt Romney or whomever is the eventual Republican nominee. Ron Paul has cobbled together an interesting coalition of liberal, conservative, and libertarian supporters. Most of his views are considered fringe, but there are elements of his national security platform that resonates strongly with Obama supporters who essentially believe that Barack Obama sold them down the river on issues such as closing Gitmo, National Defense Authorization Act (indefinite detention of American citizens), Bin Laden should have gotten a fair trial, our covert drone operations in Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and other civil liberties that Ron Paul and his supporters believe are unconstitutional. And that's just the beginning.

At the end of the day it's still Mitt Romney's to lose, but he's going to have to earn it and appears that Republicans are very much in a speed dating mood when it comes to these candidates. Whatever happens on the right, President Obama is going to be a worthy candidate and very difficult to beat, especially with the economy on the mend.

[mlmpetert]

Yeah i agree that Ron Paul as a third party may not necessarily spell an automatic win for Obama; like you said he will take a fair amount votes away from Obama too.

Also i was way off in my thinking about New Hampshire, i thought i saw something that showed Paul polling high in that state. Youre right in that Paul has little chance if any of taking New Hampshire.

Another thing i found out this morning i was wrong about (im up to 3) was my interpretation of caucuses vs. primaries. I thought primaries were open to all, but after i heard this morning about this "oath" thing VA republicans are going to ask of primary voters i found out some primaries are closed like caucuses. I think it may be like squares and rectangles; all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares…. So some primaries are closed or partly closed. Confusing, and im still not exactly sure. Heres a list of open, closed, or partly closed primaries (rectangles) for 2012:

Open or Closed Primary in Your State? ~ New World Radical

Also adding some excitement to this year’s election is the adoption of the democrat primary rules by the republicans. This basically ensures the primaries will be extended out until April and also adds in the possibility for a last minute candidate to step in. It makes it so delegates won in the primaries will be prorated instead of the winner take all (or most) type style we are used to. It also adds in the possibility of a “brokered convention”:

The New Republican Primary Rules Make It Possible For The Republican Establishment To Steal The Nomination From A Candidate They Don’t Like

One thing we keep hearing about Ron Paul (besides how he’s not a “conservative”….), is how well run his campaign is this go around. It seems to me money for the long haul and a well run campaign become much more important when delegates are largely awarded pro-rata and over time.

Republicans in the later states that have traditionally not really mattered before (like VA) don’t really vote in primaries, there has never been a point. This year the early states are much less important and the later states are much more important. This could heavily favor Paul who has a well funded and organized campaign, but more importantly a devote following. My thought is that Paul people will go vote, while non-Paul fans will stay home since they are not used to participating in their states’ traditionally pointless primary.

Interestingly the only state that wont proportionally award delegates will be Florida, which in a multi-front-runner race like we are currently in turns Florida into probably the most important state (damn, Marco Rubio could have won this thing if he wanted to). My guess is Paul’s anti- team America world police message wont resonate with the large older Jewish population, which like all old people love nothing more than voting in bloc. Well, except for early bird specials, the obituary column and matinees …..

I still don’t think Paul has a legit shot in getting the GOP nomination, but it all adds to the suspense of it being drawn out. Also a “brokered convention”, Ron Paul running as a third party, or Donald Trump running against Paul as a third party could all cause some major turmoil within in the GOP. Maybe that’s a good thing.

(also i dont frequent the websites posted above, they were just the only thing to pop up when searching primary rules)

[12thMan]

Look the bottom line is this, if you're conservative, libertarian or somewhere in between: if your candidate can't beat Mitt Romney, then your candidate can't beat Barack Obama. Period.

[drew54]

You Like Ron Paul, Except on Foreign Policy

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

FD your gonna vote Ron Paul in the primary?

I've actually never voted in a primary. It's usually done by the time it gets to Va. At this time I have no clue who I'll vote for. I have been working it seems 24/7 the past several months and have seen little to any news. I was hoping things would slow down some in Jan & Feb. like they normally do but I'm as busy as ever.

[mlmpetert]

^exactly. Its always beena waste of time to vote in primaries in this state. But the GOP adopted the Democrat rules this year for its primaries, which wouldnt make much of a difference if there was a clear front runner... kind of like opposite of right now.

Wacky Rules Complicate Race for GOP Delegates

So Santorum did a repeat of what Huckabee did last election, spend all his time (apparently a year) and money in Iowa with the hopes that a big start will snowball into later primaries. It didn’t work last time and no one thinks it will work this go around. Before Romney was just sharing votes with Newt and Rick, now he also has to split them with Santorum for the next few primaries until the appeal wears off.

Because of the new “wacky rules” this go around most states’ delegates are award proportional (depending on how you define proportional). Iowa defined it in a way that awarded equal delegates to Romney, Santorum and Paul (7 each). So theyre all even, right? Apparently Paul’s people stayed after “stole” a bunch of delegates from the actual winners:

Ron Paul Iowa Caucus Delegates | TheBlaze.com

Basically Ron Paul isn’t going away anytime soon. Im not a Paul SuperFan or anything and i know he isn’t gonna get the nomination but hes playing this thing to make the next biggest impact.

This is turning into an absolutely fascinating election way ahead of schedule.

[SmootSmack]

I'm kinda bummed that Michelle Bachmann won't be the GOP nominee...because I totally could have seen here confronting Obama in a debate about this scandal

[MTK]

The race just got a lot less crazy that's for sure.

[drew54]

Iowan here. Ron Paul cannot steal delegates. Delegates are nominated and elected by the people of individual precincts. These delegates then cast the vote in the county conventions. If the Ron Paul supporters were more willing than anyone else to be nominated, then they will be the ones representing their precinct.

At the county conventions delegates are selected for District and State Conventions. It is there the official delegates are chosen for the presidential nominating conventions.

If the whole system is full of Ron Paul supporters, then they are most likely to vote for him.

In the caucus four years ago, Huckabee won with 35% of the vote. McCain had 13%. In the end McCain won all of Iowa's delegate votes at the national convention.

Confused yet, haha.