Failed Completions

[jdlea]

But...but...the Skins should have gotten rid of Campbell for Cutler...

Who leads that list? Oh, damn, that's Jay Cutler's name, but he's a franchise QB with all the tools and a big arm and he takes shots...well, at least he doesn't throw any picks

[/sarcasm]

[tryfuhl]

tell your boy to measure that vs how many completions either scored or were part of a scoring drive

it's not all JC no doubt, but it's not all some pretty number either

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by tryfuhl

tell your boy to measure that vs how many completions either scored or were part of a scoring drive

it's not all JC no doubt, but it's not all some pretty number either

How would that be relevant to anything?

I'd imagine it would just be very positively correlated to passing attempts. Which means that Campbell would rank in the middle of the league. As he seems to do with everything.

[Redskin301]

I think if JC had and Oline he might do Somthing but he holds on to the ball for too long

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Aaron Schatz, over at football outsiders, released this list today of failed completions, which is designed to measure how frequent a quarterback ineffectively dumps the ball off, and not enough yardage is gained to constitute a "successful" play.

As I'm sure a bunch of people (myself included) suspected, Jason Campbell is on the list of top ten quarterbacks in failed completions. He's actually tied for ninth with Peyton Manning with 79 "unsuccessful" completions (24% of his total completions). What's more interesting, to me at least, is some of the players higher up on the list.

I read the link and without doing some of my own digging onto stats, one thing pops out at me. The analysis counts "failed completions" as plays of less than 4.5 yd on 1st, 60% on second down (obviously this will vary), and 100% on 3rd or 4th (no problem on that). I would like to see the numbers on just the 3rd & 4th down percentages, I think that's much more telling, because if a team is passing on those downs then the QB is in a position to have to "make a play", good ones do, mediocre/poor ones don't.

My first thought on why Orton, Brees, Manning, and Schaub are up there is their style of offense and lack of emphasis on the running game (yes I know the Saints were 6th in rushing, but they are a "pass first" offense), so a 4 yd smoke, bubble, or whatever, would count as an "unsuccessful" completion, yet it's just as good as a 4 yd run. on first down.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

I read the link and wihout doing some of my own digging onto stats, one thing pops out at me. The analysis counts "failed completions" as plays of less than 4.5 yd on 1st, 60% on second down (obviously this will vary), and 100% on 3rd or 4th (no problem on that). I would like to see the numbers on just the 3rd & 4th down percentages, I think that's much more telling, because if a team is passing on those downs then the QB is in a position to have to "make a play", good ones do, mediocre/poor ones don't.

My first thought on why Orton, Brees, Manning, and Schaub are up there is their style of offense and lack of emphasis on the running game (yes I know the Saints were 6th in rushing, but they are a "pass first" offense), so a 4 yd smoke, bubble, or whatever, would count as an "unsuccessful" completion, yet it's just as good as a 4 yd run. on first down.

I agree. The failed completion stat seems by far most relevant when on 3rd/4th down.

[warpaint]

JC has proven himself as a great average player behind instability with coaches and schemes. Neverending O-line struggles and primadonnas who dont practice and punt returners who dont get him good field position.

JC is the only stable thing we've had in our unstable nation and that is not really that good.

[GTripp0012]

I'm throwing this here:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Stat of the Day: Quarterbacks Getting Hit

Basically, it says there were quarterbacks in the NFL who were hit more frequently than Campbell (no word on harder), specifically, Garrard, Schaub, and Warner, with Campbell getting hit roughly as often as Tom Brady or Matt Hasselbeck.

Aaron Rodgers was hit significantly less often, which might surprise some of you, but is quite in line with what my eyes told me, re: Packer games.

[GusFrerotte]

Not sure if you can say the sky is the limit, but he is better than folks give him credit for. He needs to step up his game regardless. I know Lewis called the plays the last several games, but still, why did the offense light it up only after the season was lost? Lewis called the plays, but from the same playbook as Zorn. JC seems to fold it up in the big games or in tight situations.

[GTripp0012]

These numbers are REALLY good news for Jay Cutler, who was hit on 8.2% of his pass attempts, but only sacked on 5.9% of them. On the other hand, Kyle Orton was hit on 4.6% of his passes, but nearly was sacked as often as Cutler was (5.1%), so looks like the Denver line was just fine at pass blocking, and Orton just really sucks.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Aaron Rodgers was hit significantly less often, which might surprise some of you, but is quite in line with what my eyes told me, re: Packer games.

Someone actually explained the Rogers thing pretty well on ES....I know surprised me to. Apparently though, part of the reason the Pack gave up a league high in sacks was because they employed a lot of down field passes as evidenced by the fact that the Packers had great numbers in the passing game this year, especially against the Cardinals.....Holla! By the same token we were running three step drops and ended giving up 46 sacks. I guess that fares well for the Campbell supporters.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Basically, it says there were quarterbacks in the NFL who were hit more frequently than Campbell (no word on harder), specifically, Garrard, Schaub, and Warner, with Campbell getting hit roughly as often as Tom Brady or Matt Hasselbeck.

Crap didn't Jacksonville draft two tackles and sign Tra Thomas. Sorry, but something else has to be going on down there. Either Garrard is holding on to the ball to long or the coaching staff is doing a poor job of calling pass protections, especially considering they do a great job of establishing the run.