Data Post #2...

[sportscurmudgeon]

There is plenty of sentiment here for Rex Grossman to be the Skins' QB come opening day of the 2011 season - - if there is a 2011 season. Many folks also seem to believe that his starting role should be accompanied by the acquisition of a young QB to be groomed for the future. So be it..

I have THREE data postings to place here on The Warpath.

There is no hidden agenda; these are data. I have no expectation that these data will make a significant impression on the folks who live on hopes and dreams. But data are data...

Drafting a "Top Rated QB"

Since the Skins' disillusionment with Donovan McNabb is the cause of the current Skins' QB discussion, I went back to 1999 when McNabb was drafted into the NFL. Here are the first round and second round QBs taken since then:

1999:

Tim Couch - - wasted pick
Donovan McNabb - - 5 NFC Conference game appearances
Akili Smith - - wasted pick
Duante Culpepper - - mediocre career possibly due to serious knee injury.
Cade McNown - - wasted pick
Shaun King - - wasted pick

2000:

Chad Pennington - - neither a wasted pick nor a great pick


2001:

Michael Vick - - great pick some seasons; horrid pick other seasons.
Drew Brees - - great pick; a steal in the second round
Quincy Carter - - wasted pick
Marques Tuiasosopu - - wasted pick


2002:

David Carr - - not a great pick; cut some slack given the sacks he took.
Joey Harrington - - wasted pick
Patrick Ramsey - - wasted pick


2003:

Carson Palmer - - good pick not great
Byron Leftwich - - good pick not great
Kyle Boller - - wasted pick
Rex Grossman - - good pick not great


2004 (a vintage year):

Eli Manning - - great pick
Philip Rivers - - great pick
Ben Roethlisberger - - great pick
JP Losman - - wasted pick


2005:

Alex Smith - - wasted pick
Aaron Rodgers - - great pick
Jason Campbell - - good pick not a great pick


2006:

Vince Young - - great pick some days; wasted pick on other days
Matt Leinart - - wasted pick
Jay Cutler - - wasted pick till this year; now looks like a great pick?
Kellen Clemens - - wasted pick


2007:

JaMarcus Russell - - wasted pick (maybe worse than Ryan Leaf???)
Brady Quinn - - wasted pick so far
Kevin Kolb - - wasted pick so far
John Beck - - wasted pick so far
Drew Stanton - - wasted pick so far


2008:

Matt Ryan - - great pick
Joe Flacco - - great pick
Brian Brohm - - wasted pick so far
Chad Henne - - wasted pick so far


2009 (another vintage year?):

Matthew Stafford - - good pick if injuries stop
Mark Sanchez - - good pick so far
Josh Freeman - - good pick so far
Pat White - - wasted pick so far


2010:

Sam Bradford - - great pick
Tim Tebow - - who knows?
Jimmy Clausen - - who knows - but not looking so good so far.


By my count 45 QBs have been taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft since 1999. There are some Super Bowl winners here; there are some very productive QBs here; there are some solid starters here.

There are ALSO 21 QBs that I have to give the comment "wasted pick" or "wasted pick so far". Statisically, 47% of these picks do not turn out to have been good moves.

Remember, EVERY QB taken in the first two rounds had to have someone in the scouting department of the team that took him wildly enthusiastic about his prospects in the NFL. Even if Danny Boy ran the draft himself, he would not throw darts at a draft board to determine his selections.

Drafting a QB early is a risk from a financial/salary cap standpoint and from a performance on the field standpoint. Therefore, is it worth a risk to spend other draft picks to trade-up? How "certain" would you have to be that the guy you are trading up to take is a Matt Ryan and not a JaMarcus Russell?

By the way, look at the QBs who were the first QBs taken in the draft. (I have listed them in drafting order above.) Vick, Palmer, Manning, Ryan, Stafford(?) and Bradford either turned out great or appear to be headed for stardom. That is only 6 out of 12 or 50%. Half of the QBs taken first in the draft have been wasted picks or just "Meh!"

[SkinzWin]

^^ I agree with that, but don't tell Dirtbag this, since he's already S#!$ on my support for Kellen Moore since he is not projected in the first or second round.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Don't have time to do all the research, but I believe when you take out the 2nd rounders the success % goes up, but ultimately only to slightly over 50%. Agree QBs can be hit or miss, but that's what a Team President gets paid the big bucks for, to find the right guy.

Also with the rookie pay scale coming in, it makes screwing up a QB pick much less of a financial/salary cap disaster than in previous years.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

^^ I agree with that, but don't tell Dirtbag this, since he's already S#!$ on my support for Kellen Moore since he is not projected in the first or second round.

I'm sorry Kellen Moore? Is that the name of a Tight End or a new Nerf Gun? Lol, I kid I kid.

Anyway I could throw a bunch of numbers at you guys but instead I'll try to put it a different way. Passing up a potential franchise QB when you have a coaching staff in place that can groom him properly would have been like the Falcons drafting Ryan Clady and Chad Henne instead of Matt Ryan and Sam Baker. You could also picture the Ravens coming away from the 2008 draft with Sam Baker and Brian Brohm.

Today the Ravens and Falcons are viable Super Bowl contenders that will have a chance to compete for a title year in and year out until around 2022. Let me say that again, the Falcons and Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders until around 2022 simply because they are equipped with two of the leagues best passers.

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I'm sorry Kellen Moore? Is that the name of a Tight End or a new Nerf Gun? Lol, I kid I kid.

Anyway I could throw a bunch of numbers at you guys but instead I'll try to put it a different way. Passing up a potential franchise QB when you have a coaching staff in place that can groom him properly would have been like the Falcons drafting Ryan Clady and Chad Henne instead of Matt Ryan and Sam Baker. You could also picture the Ravens coming away from the 2008 draft with Sam Baker and Brian Brohm.

Today the Ravens and Falcons are viable Super Bowl contenders that will have a chance to compete for a title year in and year out until around 2022. Let me say that again, the Falcons and Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders until around 2022 simply because they are equipped with two of the leagues best passers.

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

I have always liked the Falcons since my dad used to live there so I agree... OKAY?!? I just really like Moore because of his ability to read defenses and analyze things quickly. It reminds me of Peyton Manning. However, I am not saying he is Peyton Manning.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

This is intentionally not a complete picture (it's point is for utmost simplification), but:

Matt Ryan, career -> 60.8% complete for 6.9 Y/A
Chad Henne, career -> 61.3% complete for 6.6 Y/A

Basically, the difference between the Dolphins and the Falcons in these respective eras is absolutely NOT passing efficiency. And the largest difference in the passing efficiencies is not the quarterbacks, it's a first round WR pick in his prime (Roddy White) vs. an undrafted third year slot receiver (Davone Bess) as the most dependable target each team offers.

It's been a significant special teams advantage, and playing in the NFC South vs. the AFC East.

If you are going to model a winning team, the Falcons are absolutely not the team to model. That model would be "have a ridiculously good draft where all your picks hit, and play a soft regular schedule while disappointing in the playoffs."

I like the Bears model (win without an offense), the Chargers model (value trumps everything), the Titans/Jags model (everything comes from the ground game and pressure on the quarterback), and personally, the Gregg Williams secondary-first model. The Falcons model is 1) hard to duplicate, and 2) still lacking in long-term results.

I might, in hindsight, have recommended Matt Ryan over Jake Long. But Ryan still hasn't had a signature season, while Long's had the better career to date. I don't know how long that will hold, as it seems like a matter of time until Ryan is a perennial pro-bowler.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This is intentionally not a complete picture (it's point is for utmost simplification), but:

Matt Ryan, career -> 60.8% complete for 6.9 Y/A
Chad Henne, career -> 61.3% complete for 6.6 Y/A

Basically, the difference between the Dolphins and the Falcons in these respective eras is absolutely NOT passing efficiency. And the largest difference in the passing efficiencies is not the quarterbacks, it's a first round WR pick in his prime (Roddy White) vs. an undrafted third year slot receiver (Davone Bess) as the most dependable target each team offers.

It's been a significant special teams advantage, and playing in the NFC South vs. the AFC East.

If you are going to model a winning team, the Falcons are absolutely not the team to model. That model would be "have a ridiculously good draft where all your picks hit, and play a soft regular schedule while disappointing in the playoffs."

I like the Bears model (win without an offense), the Chargers model (value trumps everything), the Titans/Jags model (everything comes from the ground game and pressure on the quarterback), and personally, the Gregg Williams secondary-first model. The Falcons model is 1) hard to duplicate, and 2) still lacking in long-term results.

I might, in hindsight, have recommended Matt Ryan over Jake Long. But Ryan still hasn't had a signature season, while Long's had the better career to date. I don't know how long that will hold, as it seems like a matter of time until Ryan is a perennial pro-bowler.

Chad Henne isnt on the same Planet as Matt Ryan

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Chad Henne isnt on the same Planet as Matt Ryan

I was going to try and put together a bunch of stuff to counter but yeah that works to. If nothing else remember the fact that Ryan has a 25:9 TD-Int ratio while leading an 12-2 team in a tough division. Henne has a 14:16 TD-Int ratio and has been benched at least twice this year. As SkinsfaninOk said, not even on the same planet.

And on top of that how can you even act like Henne doesn't have a recieving corps especially after the Dolphins spent a pretty penny to pry Brandon Marshall away from Denver? Should we hold the fact that Davone Bess isn't a household name against him? This is madness.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Chad Henne isnt on the same Planet as Matt Ryan

If "sub-elite NFL quarterback" were a planet, you'd be wrong.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I'm sorry Kellen Moore? Is that the name of a Tight End or a new Nerf Gun? Lol, I kid I kid.

Anyway I could throw a bunch of numbers at you guys but instead I'll try to put it a different way. Passing up a potential franchise QB when you have a coaching staff in place that can groom him properly would have been like the Falcons drafting Ryan Clady and Chad Henne instead of Matt Ryan and Sam Baker. You could also picture the Ravens coming away from the 2008 draft with Sam Baker and Brian Brohm.

Today the Ravens and Falcons are viable Super Bowl contenders that will have a chance to compete for a title year in and year out until around 2022. Let me say that again, the Falcons and Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders until around 2022 simply because they are equipped with two of the leagues best passers.

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

Flacco = Elite?? IDK about that, have you seen his career PLAYOFF numbers and QB rating? It's like 1 TD to 6 Int under 50 QB rating.. That's not elite my man.

AS will GB,SD and Pitt with their QBs

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I'm sorry Kellen Moore? Is that the name of a Tight End or a new Nerf Gun? Lol, I kid I kid.

Anyway I could throw a bunch of numbers at you guys but instead I'll try to put it a different way. Passing up a potential franchise QB when you have a coaching staff in place that can groom him properly would have been like the Falcons drafting Ryan Clady and Chad Henne instead of Matt Ryan and Sam Baker. You could also picture the Ravens coming away from the 2008 draft with Sam Baker and Brian Brohm.

Today the Ravens and Falcons are viable Super Bowl contenders that will have a chance to compete for a title year in and year out until around 2022. Let me say that again, the Falcons and Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders until around 2022 simply because they are equipped with two of the leagues best passers.

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

The #1 current argument to why getting a franchise QB is the most reliable measure of success. We've got our tackle, now lets focus all our efforts on getting the QB.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I'm sorry Kellen Moore? Is that the name of a Tight End or a new Nerf Gun? Lol, I kid I kid.

Anyway I could throw a bunch of numbers at you guys but instead I'll try to put it a different way. Passing up a potential franchise QB when you have a coaching staff in place that can groom him properly would have been like the Falcons drafting Ryan Clady and Chad Henne instead of Matt Ryan and Sam Baker. You could also picture the Ravens coming away from the 2008 draft with Sam Baker and Brian Brohm.

Today the Ravens and Falcons are viable Super Bowl contenders that will have a chance to compete for a title year in and year out until around 2022. Let me say that again, the Falcons and Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders until around 2022 simply because they are equipped with two of the leagues best passers.

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

How can you seriously project them to last 12 more years in top tier form?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by tryfuhl

How can you seriously project them to last 12 more years in top tier form?

In a world where Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are top five NFL quarterbacks, anything is possible.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by tryfuhl

How can you seriously project them to last 12 more years in top tier form?

My bad. They probably got about 10 more years until they start to go down hill seeing as how they'll be 35 in 2020. Of course they could pull a Brett Farve and be productive well into their late 30's but chances are they'll just revert to above average QB's. All of this obviously assumes that there are minimal health issues which given the NFL's "crackdown" on QB touches shouldn't be much of a problem as it relates to on field violence. Plus both Flacco and Ryan are pocket passers.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

My bad. They probably got about 10 more years until they start to go down hill seeing as how they'll be 35 in 2020. Of course they could pull a Brett Farve and be productive well into their late 30's but chances are they'll just revert to above average QB's. All of this obviously assumes that there are minimal health issues which given the NFL's "crackdown" on QB touches shouldn't be much of a problem as it relates to on field violence. Plus both Flacco and Ryan are pocket passers.

But even if you make the leap of faith that one or both of Flacco or Ryan actually take the leap of performance into the Brady/Brees/Rivers/Romo stratosphere of NFL quarterbacking (which is probably a bigger leap for Flacco than Ryan, I digress), making them annual pro-bowlers, you're still dealing with a changing of the guard on the other side of the ball in Baltimore.

Atlanta has less preventing them from becoming an elite NFC team, obviously, which is good for them, but I'm skeptical that there's any opportunity for growth in their offense. Ryan already throws to White about 10 times a game, and Michael Turner can't possibly be better for them than he has been since 2008. Maybe you do something like trade for Vincent Jackson. I'm just wondering why that set of triplets plus a strong offensive line hasn't yet resulted in better personal numbers for Matt Ryan. He's got to get there soon, right?