the years down the road

skinster · 11-12-2009, 02:55 PM

Alot of people are calling for us to rebuild our team, which is something that I want too, but I was thinking about it, and I am not convinced we can be good 3 years down the road even if we rebuild. The way I see it many of our good players now are old, and so we would not only have to replace the current holes we have now, but the future holes of the players that will not produce 3 years down the road.
I do not see Fletcher (34), griffin (will be 33 in dec), daniels (36), thomas (34 in jan), rabach (32), sellers (34) or samuels (retiring this season) even being in the nfl 3 years down the road.
I do not see portis being here due to his obvious decline and huge cap numbers to come.
Smoot is gone soon.
I do not see Moss(30), Randle El(30), or Carter(30) being close to as they are now. They are all speed guys, which usually diminishes by 33.
Who knows if Betts (30) or cartwright (29) will be around considering the short life span of RB's
We do not know if Campbell will stick around, but I doubt it considering that Snyder seems like he wants to get rid of him with the cutler and sanchez situations in the offseason.
I don't see Barnes or Tryon emerging as better than a nickle at best. I am not confident in Jarmon being starting material, but have not ruled him out. I am confident that neither kelly or thomas will be better than a number 4. Mitchell I am hoping for, but do not expect him to be able to be starting material. Wilson is not a starting LB, and I'm thinking that we're going to move Orakpo to DE considering how good he is at it and considering that is what I hear we play him most at anyways.
So even if we want to not have any holes on our team and if we keep everyone else, and if they remain as good as they are (which we won't, and they won't), over the next 3 offseasons we will need to get:
2 starting tackles
1 starting gaurd
1 starting center
1 starting MLB
1 starting SLB
1 starting RB
1 starting FB
1 starting WR
We will probably need to get
1 starting QB
1 nickle back
1 starting DE
1 backup RB
1 decent WR (for the 3rd spot, I think randle el will be gone but moss will still start)
1 return specialist

That is 14 players (assuming the return specialist doubles over to a player picked up) I feel we will need to acquire over the next 3 years to fill the spots of players that get significant playing time. Keep in mind this does not even include depth.
If we are very lucky we can pick up 3 impact players in each of the next 3 drafts (even though we are already missing picks). That is 9 impact players (3 of which will be rookies that year). That means that we will have to get 5 impact free agents. over the next 3 years. Our impact free agents that are still good over the past 3 offseasons are fletcher, haynesworth, and dockery. With all the money we spent we only have 3. We will not be able to spend as much as we used to with the new CBA coming into place and the big cap numbers that are coming up on our players.
We need way too many "what ifs" and longshot situations to be good in 3 years time. I do not see it happening. I do not see us being good for a long time. I am still in it for the long haul though, I can see us being pretty good in 4 years time, but feel that 5 is more realistic. I don't care how many years it takes, I'll wait for this franchise to return to contenders.
What do you guys think? How long do you think it will take?

skinsfaninok · 11-12-2009, 03:04 PM

Well damn dude, let's just become a expansion team and have a brand new draft lol.. You need to be realistic to what we will actually get. I say it starts with a tackle, and qb in the first two rounds of our draft. After that, we can start talking about every other hole that needs to be filled

Trample the Elderly · 11-12-2009, 03:59 PM

Nah, I say they can do it in two years. If they had a competent GM it wouldn't be much of a problem.

hail_2_da_skins · 11-12-2009, 04:08 PM

You just painted a picture of the mess the Skins are in. A major overhaul is required and the ownership does not have the patience to wait for this to happen. Its going to take a miracle to get this thing turned around in a couple of years.

TheSmurfs22 · 11-12-2009, 04:42 PM

Until the management changes we will keep circling the drain.

MTK · 11-12-2009, 05:17 PM

You can't replace everyone overnight. Yeah there are some key guys coming to the end of the road, but I don't consider someone who just hit 30 as a pressing priority to replace.

GusFrerotte · 11-12-2009, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

You can't replace everyone overnight. Yeah there are some key guys coming to the end of the road, but I don't consider someone who just hit 30 as a pressing priority to replace.

Yeah, you can have guys still playing good ball even over 35 if they stay healthy. IF Snyder swallows his pride and gets a GM it will take 3-5 seasons to build a real winner. Most of the guys on the squad will be gone by then just by natural progression(meaning not resigned, retired , or resigned elsewhere). Our vaunted young WRs are wastes IMHO. IF Mitchell was so great he would have been a starter already. I think most of us wanted him to be the real deal so bad we all deluded ourselves. Campbell has peaked in terms of his QB development. He isn't a bad QB, but isn't going to be a playoff winning caliber QB either. So already you will have to draft a WR, a QB, some LBs, and some DBs as well in the next couple drafts.

MTK · 11-12-2009, 09:16 PM

So you're writing off MM after he just saw his first action?

Still too early to write off DT and MK too if you ask me.

mlmdub130 · 11-12-2009, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

IF Mitchell was so great he would have been a starter already. I think most of us wanted him to be the real deal so bad we all deluded ourselves.

he had two catches for 22 yards in his first action, every db on our team said he was lights out all preseason d hall got in a fight with him cause he couldn't cover him, he has the size and speed and the composure to be an outstanding game breaker wr in the nfl

wilsowilso · 11-12-2009, 10:54 PM

thesis - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

BaltimoreSkins · 11-12-2009, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

So you're writing off MM after he just saw his first action?

Still too early to write off DT and MK too if you ask me.

I agree. Although I do wish Kelly and Thomas would've shown more production at this point I know WRs take sometime to develop and with the current offensive problems maybe a little longer in this case.

Ruhskins · 11-12-2009, 11:04 PM

Man, this is what happens when people play the franchise mode in Madden too long.

Bill B · 11-12-2009, 11:33 PM

SKinster,

You make a god overview analysis of the major problem the Skins have in that there is not enough youth and the teams major contributors are getting old and eventually thie effectiveness is likely to decline - remember everyone the average NFL career is 3.4 years so those pushing over 30 are defying the odds.

First, if we don't get the best GM money can buy it won't matter how many picks you have - so Synder must take the necessary step of making this change to the front office.

Second, in your analysis you did not include undrafted free agent pickups. Yes having as many draft picks as possible is what the Skins desperately need, but if you have a great GM and Front Office they can find a couple of players every year that were not highly ranked in draft publications or by Mel Kiper to build depth and hopefully contribute sooner or later as a starter. When you look at the rosters of a lot of teams that are consistently at the top you find that some of their key players were not in the top 10 of the draft and some were undrafted.

Third, the Skins can and should start focusing more on mid-level free agents. Instead of spending their whole wad on one or two big name free agents they should focus on collecting a ton of mid level guys. More players brought in increases the chance the team will be able to sustain its competitiveness to the eventually injuries. And lets stop kidding ourselves that we or any team will get through the season withour a couple of major injuries.

Fourth, I am one of the believers that good offensive and defensive lines make the other players like QB's, WR's, RB's, LB's and DB's better. I think in the SKins case Thomas and Kelly would look a lot better if we had a line equivilent to the Hogs. Same with Portis at RB - look at how often Portis has to scratch for every yard he gains. When he was in Denver it looked so much easier for him (although his speed has declined since then but not that much). So, I think the Skins need to really focus on fortifying their offensive line first and also keep adding a Dlineman every year or so to deal with the eventually loss of Griffin and Daniels.

skins89moss · 11-13-2009, 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

I agree. Although I do wish Kelly and Thomas would've shown more production at this point I know WRs take sometime to develop and with the current offensive problems maybe a little longer in this case.

Look at Veron Davis it took him about 3 years to make a difference at TE.

Coff · 11-13-2009, 07:38 AM

I think your breakdown paints a very accurate picture of the state of the team for the next three years, but if the problem is approached effectively then we could easily be a very good team in three years.
It’s been stated and restated ad naseum, we need to build through the draft, and that’s why we're in the mess we’re in. So first and for most, the team must absolutely stop trading away draft picks no matter what. We can’t accept anymore Jason Taylors or TJ Duckets. We use the draft well and in three years we’ll have a solid base for a team, with appropriate depth.
Lets not forget, a lot of the players you mentioned, a lot of the talent we have, was acquired through free agency, and those players can be replaced via free agency easier then they have been in the past because we’re approaching an uncapped year, and might be seeing the end of the salary cap altogether. I know that we’re all skeptical of building through free agency, but when done well, when used to supplement the draft, free agency is very useful.
In addition, many of the players in and around 30 (Moss, Carter, etc) do not have to be replaced immediately, so they will still be useful in three years. In five or six? No, but that gives us more than three years to replace them.
So basically, I think a strong, solidly built, deep team can be built in three years. Will it? Of course not. Not with Snyderrato.

11-12-2009, 02:55 PM	#1
skinster Impact Rookie Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 754	the years down the road Alot of people are calling for us to rebuild our team, which is something that I want too, but I was thinking about it, and I am not convinced we can be good 3 years down the road even if we rebuild. The way I see it many of our good players now are old, and so we would not only have to replace the current holes we have now, but the future holes of the players that will not produce 3 years down the road. I do not see Fletcher (34), griffin (will be 33 in dec), daniels (36), thomas (34 in jan), rabach (32), sellers (34) or samuels (retiring this season) even being in the nfl 3 years down the road. I do not see portis being here due to his obvious decline and huge cap numbers to come. Smoot is gone soon. I do not see Moss(30), Randle El(30), or Carter(30) being close to as they are now. They are all speed guys, which usually diminishes by 33. Who knows if Betts (30) or cartwright (29) will be around considering the short life span of RB's We do not know if Campbell will stick around, but I doubt it considering that Snyder seems like he wants to get rid of him with the cutler and sanchez situations in the offseason. I don't see Barnes or Tryon emerging as better than a nickle at best. I am not confident in Jarmon being starting material, but have not ruled him out. I am confident that neither kelly or thomas will be better than a number 4. Mitchell I am hoping for, but do not expect him to be able to be starting material. Wilson is not a starting LB, and I'm thinking that we're going to move Orakpo to DE considering how good he is at it and considering that is what I hear we play him most at anyways. So even if we want to not have any holes on our team and if we keep everyone else, and if they remain as good as they are (which we won't, and they won't), over the next 3 offseasons we will need to get: 2 starting tackles 1 starting gaurd 1 starting center 1 starting MLB 1 starting SLB 1 starting RB 1 starting FB 1 starting WR We will probably need to get 1 starting QB 1 nickle back 1 starting DE 1 backup RB 1 decent WR (for the 3rd spot, I think randle el will be gone but moss will still start) 1 return specialist That is 14 players (assuming the return specialist doubles over to a player picked up) I feel we will need to acquire over the next 3 years to fill the spots of players that get significant playing time. Keep in mind this does not even include depth. If we are very lucky we can pick up 3 impact players in each of the next 3 drafts (even though we are already missing picks). That is 9 impact players (3 of which will be rookies that year). That means that we will have to get 5 impact free agents. over the next 3 years. Our impact free agents that are still good over the past 3 offseasons are fletcher, haynesworth, and dockery. With all the money we spent we only have 3. We will not be able to spend as much as we used to with the new CBA coming into place and the big cap numbers that are coming up on our players. We need way too many "what ifs" and longshot situations to be good in 3 years time. I do not see it happening. I do not see us being good for a long time. I am still in it for the long haul though, I can see us being pretty good in 4 years time, but feel that 5 is more realistic. I don't care how many years it takes, I'll wait for this franchise to return to contenders. What do you guys think? How long do you think it will take?

11-12-2009, 03:04 PM	#2
skinsfaninok Warpath Hall of Fame Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: UNITED STATES Age: 38 Posts: 36,174	Re: the years down the road Well damn dude, let's just become a expansion team and have a brand new draft lol.. You need to be realistic to what we will actually get. I say it starts with a tackle, and qb in the first two rounds of our draft. After that, we can start talking about every other hole that needs to be filled __________________ “Mediocre people don’t like high achievers, and high achievers don’t like mediocre people.” ― Nick Saban

11-12-2009, 03:59 PM	#3
Trample the Elderly Playmaker Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Three Chopt Virginia Age: 47 Posts: 2,906	Re: the years down the road Nah, I say they can do it in two years. If they had a competent GM it wouldn't be much of a problem. __________________ A funny thing happened on the way to the temple. The moneychangers bought the priesthood.

11-12-2009, 04:08 PM	#4
hail_2_da_skins Impact Rookie Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: St. Louis, MO Age: 69 Posts: 868	Re: the years down the road You just painted a picture of the mess the Skins are in. A major overhaul is required and the ownership does not have the patience to wait for this to happen. Its going to take a miracle to get this thing turned around in a couple of years. __________________ "HAIL TO THE SKINS"

11-12-2009, 04:42 PM	#5
TheSmurfs22 The Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Staunton, VA Posts: 1,261	Re: the years down the road Until the management changes we will keep circling the drain. __________________ F#$% the Cowpukes!

11-12-2009, 05:17 PM	#6
MTK \m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Age: 52 Posts: 99,741	Re: the years down the road You can't replace everyone overnight. Yeah there are some key guys coming to the end of the road, but I don't consider someone who just hit 30 as a pressing priority to replace. __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

11-12-2009, 09:16 PM	#8
MTK \m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Age: 52 Posts: 99,741	Re: the years down the road So you're writing off MM after he just saw his first action? Still too early to write off DT and MK too if you ask me. __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

11-12-2009, 10:54 PM	#10
wilsowilso Registered User Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Los Angeles Age: 51 Posts: 2,841	Re: the years down the road thesis - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

11-12-2009, 11:04 PM	#12
Ruhskins Living Legend Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 22,368	Re: the years down the road Man, this is what happens when people play the franchise mode in Madden too long. __________________ R.I.P. #21

11-12-2009, 11:33 PM	#13
Bill B Impact Rookie Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 721	Re: the years down the road SKinster, You make a god overview analysis of the major problem the Skins have in that there is not enough youth and the teams major contributors are getting old and eventually thie effectiveness is likely to decline - remember everyone the average NFL career is 3.4 years so those pushing over 30 are defying the odds. First, if we don't get the best GM money can buy it won't matter how many picks you have - so Synder must take the necessary step of making this change to the front office. Second, in your analysis you did not include undrafted free agent pickups. Yes having as many draft picks as possible is what the Skins desperately need, but if you have a great GM and Front Office they can find a couple of players every year that were not highly ranked in draft publications or by Mel Kiper to build depth and hopefully contribute sooner or later as a starter. When you look at the rosters of a lot of teams that are consistently at the top you find that some of their key players were not in the top 10 of the draft and some were undrafted. Third, the Skins can and should start focusing more on mid-level free agents. Instead of spending their whole wad on one or two big name free agents they should focus on collecting a ton of mid level guys. More players brought in increases the chance the team will be able to sustain its competitiveness to the eventually injuries. And lets stop kidding ourselves that we or any team will get through the season withour a couple of major injuries. Fourth, I am one of the believers that good offensive and defensive lines make the other players like QB's, WR's, RB's, LB's and DB's better. I think in the SKins case Thomas and Kelly would look a lot better if we had a line equivilent to the Hogs. Same with Portis at RB - look at how often Portis has to scratch for every yard he gains. When he was in Denver it looked so much easier for him (although his speed has declined since then but not that much). So, I think the Skins need to really focus on fortifying their offensive line first and also keep adding a Dlineman every year or so to deal with the eventually loss of Griffin and Daniels.

11-13-2009, 07:38 AM	#15
Coff Impact Rookie Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Halfmoon, NY Posts: 686	Re: the years down the road I think your breakdown paints a very accurate picture of the state of the team for the next three years, but if the problem is approached effectively then we could easily be a very good team in three years. It’s been stated and restated ad naseum, we need to build through the draft, and that’s why we're in the mess we’re in. So first and for most, the team must absolutely stop trading away draft picks no matter what. We can’t accept anymore Jason Taylors or TJ Duckets. We use the draft well and in three years we’ll have a solid base for a team, with appropriate depth. Lets not forget, a lot of the players you mentioned, a lot of the talent we have, was acquired through free agency, and those players can be replaced via free agency easier then they have been in the past because we’re approaching an uncapped year, and might be seeing the end of the salary cap altogether. I know that we’re all skeptical of building through free agency, but when done well, when used to supplement the draft, free agency is very useful. In addition, many of the players in and around 30 (Moss, Carter, etc) do not have to be replaced immediately, so they will still be useful in three years. In five or six? No, but that gives us more than three years to replace them. So basically, I think a strong, solidly built, deep team can be built in three years. Will it? Of course not. Not with Snyderrato.

the years down the road

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