Quote:
Originally Posted by 12thMan
Romney's not winning VA, tell you that right now. He'll squeak NC maybe. And Florida is razor close.
Obama's baseline EV is more in the 240 range.
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I can tell you with certainty that Romney will not squeak out North Carolina. rather it will be as close to dark red as a swing state can get.
Virginia, you're closer to that area then me obviously so maybe you know better but everything I've read and heard from family and friends say it's going to be a Romney win.
Florida for better or worse has a large senior population that believes Obamacare is going to raid Medicare and full implementation will cause quality doctors to retire. Obviously Obamacare can't simply be overturned but with Obama reelected theres not even a chance of budget reconciliation.
Keep in mind I have great respect for the AHCA. It's the reason I'm insured today and the reason why I didn't have to wait to get covered when I got hired for my current job. And the most important thing is even if overturned it will force any bill passed in the future to have some sort of protection for people like me with preexisting conditions. With that said the bill is overkill and needs to be reigned in but I don't agree that it's the end of the world like the GOP will have you believe.
Back to poll skewing though. The reason I'm intrigued is apparently back in 2010 the models used mirrored the turnout of the 2008 election with a democratic advantage in states like Ohio around +8. During the midterms the turnout favored Republicans +1 despite polls sampling more Democrats.
Thats part of the reason I'm hedging my bets between Obama barely winning (in line with a decent amount of polls inside the margin of error) and a Romney landslide (that in retrospect would show polls oversampling Dems).
In the end it will be interesting to see if the concept of poll skewing is legit or just a GOP conspiracy theory.