The salary cap is defined in the CBA as a percentage of the annual league-wide net Defined Gross Revenues (or "DGR"). The percentages for the remaining years of the CBA are as follows:
2004: 64.75%
2005: 65.5%
2006: 64.5%
However, if they provide written notice on or before December 1, 2004, the NFL or the NFLPA can move one half of a percentage point from 2005 to 2006, so that the percentage for both years is 65%. As it stands now, the 2005 League Year has the highest
percentage of net DGR allocated to the Salary Cap of any year since the CBA's inception.
Here's a look at how DGR increased from 1995 through 2002 (I don't have the official number for 2003):
Year DGR Percent Change
1995 $2,002,000,000 -
1996 $2,168,000,000 8.3
1997 $2,286,000,000 5.4
1998 $2,813,000,000 23.1
1999 $3,185,000,000 13.2
2000 $3,513,000,000 10.3
2001 $3,771,000,000 7.3
2002 $4,277,000,000 13.4
As you can see, the percentage increase in DGR can vary pretty wildly from year to year. But clearly, the percentage jump from 1997 to 1998 (23.1%) was extraordinary, and that mind-boggling leap was due to the current $17.6 billion TV contract the NFL signed with FOX, CBS and ABC/ESPN in January of 1998. From 1997 to 1998, the salary cap made a nearly $11 million jump, from $41.450 million to $52.388 million. Compare that to the average annual increase of $4-5 million since 1998, and it's clear that a new TV contract can have a huge impact on the salary cap.
So, when you combine the impact of the highest net DGR percentage of the CBA in 2005, and the impact of a new TV deal, the salary cap certainly could take another 1998-like jump in 2005.