Quote:
Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule
Thought I would revive this. Even China is getting tired of North Korea's antics:
BreakingNews
Update: China complains formally over shooting of 3 citizens by NKorean guard, an unusual move for the close allies-BBC
about 3 hours ago via breakingnews.com
BBC News - North Korean border guard 'shoots three Chinese dead'
Is North Korea so close to the brink that they just don't care at this point, or is it still all political gamesmanship. At this point I don't think I would be shocked if they tried a land grab irrationally rationalizing:
a) they could get to Seoul with the element of surprise.
b) china would defend their airspace if push came to shove
c) as a last resort they have the threat of nuking Japan if we intervene.
Granted they have been nearly all bark for the last decade, but is it possible at some point their dear leader just puts all his cards in and goes for it? |
I don't think so. Any invasion of South Korea would be met with significant resistance from the US, and with them as the aggressors and us as the defenders of little South Korea, we would retain all moral high ground.
China is interested in maintaining a good relationship with the US. They like us for trade purposes, they don't want to get into a gigantic war with us (who does), and they hold a ton of our bonds. If they get into a war with us, where they defend the North Korean aggressors, it gives us all the reason in the world to wipe that debt right off the books. Our nation's credit rating wouldn't even take a hit because of the circumstances and the moral high ground.
North Korea talks a big game but ultimately they will do what's in their own best interests. They don't feel real secure with Japan and its Navy just to the East, the American-defended South Koreans just to the South, and the growing American partnership with China. Kim Jong Il is paranoid, and puts on shows of force with his occasional missile launches. But in the end I think he's more rational than people give him credit for. He's an evil bastard for sure, but he still knows what's in his own best interests. If he invades S Korea he has to commit his forces to the invasion, the US and Japan will bomb him from across the water, and China will be forced to sit and watch.
The real threat is that he'd supply terrorists with nuclear weaponry in an attempt to attack our homeland covertly.