Quote:
Originally Posted by SmootSmack
Media outlets are preparing for the possibility that their Election Day surveys could be skewed because of overstated support for Barack Obama, largely because of the enthusiasm of his supporters.
While exit polling is a notoriously inexact science—early exit poll results suggested John Kerry would be elected president in 2004—the introduction of several new variables, ranging from the zeal of Obama’s supporters to his racial background to widespread early voting, is causing concerns among those charged with conducting the surveys and the networks that will be reporting them.
News outlets sweat over exit poll accuracy - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com |
Who cares about exit polls? The only thing they do is allow networks to make early predictions. What matters for the election is accurate state by state polling. For that, see
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right .
Why would us Obama backers need to discredit this? Seems like a problem for the networks, but it's all after the fact. It's the voting that counts. And there, the polls look pretty good for Obama. McCain is running out of time here. He's pulled out of most states to focus on Penn. Maybe he can flip it and with that momentum hold everything else. But he's getting outspent like hell and Palin is not helping with the Indies and Clinton folks. And the nutty Congresswoman ranting about anti-americans didn't help, nor did the Powell endorsement. McC needs some good news and quick.