Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012
For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.
The value metrics are readily available at places like footballoutsiders.com, profootballreference.com's blog, KC Joyner's articles on ESPN.com, and Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog.
There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.
Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.
For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.
So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the expectation for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here. |
IMO these numbers are pretty much a wild approximation or SWAG and not useful at all, but you're quoting them like they're well accepted throughout the media and sports world. The QB rating formula is less complicated and tells you a lot more than this stuff. These ratings give little account to the DL & OL because most of what they do doesn't show on stats.
Stats are important, but the interpretations and extrapolations made from these stats tells a FO guy, GM, or coach next to nothing that they don't already know. T. Brady is better than Kitna....my 15 yr. old could tell you that. Hell, the computer programmers at EA know that. How do you account for a QB or WR who plays on a team with a bad OL, how about a good CB with a bad DL. Would Archie Manning have been a Peyton Manning if he wasn't on bad teams? Who knows? Stats are important but IMO these are taking the interpretation too far.
Bottom line is; we gave up the equivalent of probably the # 50 overall pick in the draft, under duress, for a Pro Bowl caliber player at DE. If JT is productive for two seasons, not only is he helping the pass defense, but he's given us some flexibilty in when/how we address needs at CB, DE, DT and LB in the 2009 & 2010 off-seasons.