Quote:
Originally Posted by BDBohnzie
jsarno - just a head's up. Total Bases does not factor in walks, but base hits (singles + doubles *2 + triples * 3 + HRs * 4). So you look at On Base Percentage as a factor to include his base on balls, which Bonds is currently at .497, which means Bonds is getting on 1 out of every 2 trips to the plate.
Bonds has definitely lost a step, so walking him is much better than letting him swing, as you'll potentially have him run into more DPs with little to no protection behind him. All the while, he's a career .298 hitter. Now, steroids may help you hit the ball further, it doesn't help you actually hit the ball...
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I was trying to figure out why you gave me that "head up", so I went back and find this comment that I posted
Good for 3rd on the TEAM! That's right, even with all his walks, he is still only 3rd on the team..., I have no clue why I put that comment in that sentence. I know exactly how the calculate total bases, my point was just to show his total bases. So I apologize for that incorrect comment.
I do want to correct you on something though. You said steroids doesn't actually help you hit a ball. Well that has been proven untrue. During an interview with one of the Balco people (I posted it somewhere on here with his name, but I am forgetting his name now), he said that "the clear" will indeed help you hit a ball. It's gets you "zoned in".
From 02-04 he averaged a .358 batting average. Not including 05 (he only played in 14 games) but from 06-07 he is batting .275, that's a difference of 83 points. He's only batting .282 this year. Last year he batted .270 which is the worst he has hit in a season of 130 games or more since 1989, and his .282 is the 2nd worst.
Also, when you can hit farther, that means the difference of a warning track out, or a home run. So yes, that alone will bring your average down. It's too hard to speculate how many home runs he likely would not have hit. But I would guess that any that landed in the first 5 rows at least would have been an out had he not taken steroids, so that (just taking a wild guess) could easily mean 100-200 fewer homers. If it was 200 homers, then his career batting average would be sitting at .278. He'd also be sitting at 1462 rbi (instead of 1986, since he averages 2.6 rbi per home run). He'd be at 2015 runs, instead of 2215.
To take that a step farther, if all that were true, then there is no way he would have played in 06 and 07 after those knee issues...and no team would have gave him a contract to play either. That means he would have barely hit 508 homers, 1329 RBI, 1878 runs.
On the career list, Bonds would go from 3rd in runs to 12th, he would go from 5th in RBI to 83rd, and he would go from 1st in homers to 20th. He would also go from 226th in average to somewhere around 640's.
To take this even farther, if he hadn't juiced then he wouldn't have walked as much therefore all these numbers would have decreased even more with the possibility of his average going up.
Again, all these figures are wild guesses. If Bonds started taking steroids in 90 or 93 this would bode much worse for him.