Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012
Ladell Betts gets the ball stripped by nameless St. Louis DB late in the 4th quarter of a close game. Careless on the part of Betts? Sure. Alert play by the DB? Yeah, I'll give him credit. But unless this would be the outcome of every occurence that involved contact between the ballcarrying Betts and nameless DB, there is at least SOME luck involved in it. If there wasn't, Betts would be stripped every time that man reached in on him.
I'm not saying that Betts isn't fumble prone or that the St. Louis player doesn't have a knack for stripping the ball. Certainly, a forced fumble would only be the outcome of this play a small percentage of the time. But, as you see, this semi-lucky occurence completely changed the outcome of the game. One more loss on the board for Washington, one more with for STL.
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As i posted originally the bounce of the ball is a factor of luck (the sean taylor recovery after blocked FG).
But in this instance it isn't luck. One player had the ball stripped by another player. It is simple execution. The nameless DB may not execute that tackle that well all the time and Betts may not be so careless all the time, that isn't luck, its execution. E.g. Tiki Barber was fumble prone, had his technique fixed then hardly ever fumbled, it wasn't because his luck turned around, it was becuase he changed his carrying technique.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012
Let's face it, if luck weren't a deciding factor in football, the best team on the field would win 100% of the time. The fact that 35-40% of NFL games end in upsets just how randomly decided NFL games can be.
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I like the Charges V Pats stuff, to recover all 5 fumbles is somewhat lucky, i'll give you that. But i don't think we can specualte what the outcome of the game would have been had some of the fumbles gone the other way. As you said a turnover is huge and changes games, so that is something we will never know.
The best team on the field is surely the team that wins the game?! The idea of an upset is based upon form from previous games, and preconceptions of what level of execution each team is capable of producing on the day. It has nothing to do with luck. A team with a bad record beats a team with a good record, you cant just dismiss that as luck. There must have been better execution by one team!
There is luck in football. But I beleive that anyone who looks at a team over an entire season and says, 'well we were unlucky' and uses that as an excuse is wrong. Luck plays such an insignificant factor in the outcome of games that is shoudln't even be discussed as a posibility to explain a loss or loosing season. If the front office gets the right coaches and players; those coaches train the players the right way and come up with the right gameplans; then the players execute on the field: you will win football games. Regardless of luck.