Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk72
I hope people realize that trading down is no guarantee.
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Exactly true. But, while picking at #6 statistically might have better odds of picking a winner, that too is no guarantee.
My thinking says trading down has two distinct advantages:
1.
Several positions of need. Leaving the gap (in pick chances) open from the #6 pick until their next pick in Round 5 doesn't help fill those positions of need.
2.
Risk averaging. By getting several, albeit lower, picks, the cost of the risk incurred is spread out over those several picks. With one selection at 6 (or 31 if it comes to pass), #6 becomes an all-or-nothing choice. To have the holes we have, and then potentially select a DUD at 6 means another wasted draft opportunity.