Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10
I think you’re making the mistake of assuming Putin is a rational actor. He’s sending in conscripts with little logistical support. These aren’t the 2nd Rangers. He’s using his own as cannon fodder.
I’m as morally appalled as you are and I too want to see something done. But as long as Russia is being this ineffective there’s wisdom in letting Ukraine be the ones to give their lives grinding up the Russian war machine while NATO retains a position of strength and poise. Maintaining that readiness with no worse strategic position while Russia weakens itself points to an eye on the long game.
So far we can’t say the decision to supply Ukraine is leading to failure. If this does indeed lead to WW3 we can’t lose it, playing the long game is prudent.
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I hear what you are saying, and I do agree to the extent that on the ground, Ukraine troops are doing amazing, and may maintain their own. Where my main disagreement is, is particularly the initial 40 mile column of tanks, which we could have helped take out with drones or stealth attacks that minimize the risk of full escalation, and more importantly the siege of Mariupol. My comparison of the Berlin Airlift is where I stand. send in UN planes, with supplies and rescue efforts, and put it on Russia to attack them.
Putin isn't a rational character by western standards, but he most definitely is by RealPolitik standards. He gambled that the nuclear bluff would hold the west at bay while his forces quickly drove in and took Kiev. Had Ukraine's army collapsed in those first 5 days, as Putin's intelligence said it would, they would have successfully taken over Ukraine. Once that intelligence proved false, he has played the cards he was dealt with depleted forces.
I would argue that nothing Putin has done, hasn't been telegraphed as his intentions, and the West's response to Chechnya, Georgia, and Crimea led to his RealPolitik belief that he could act with impunity in Ukraine.
Edit : Defining Rational Actor
What is the rational actor model theory?
The most widely cited foreign policy analysis approach is the rational actor model. This approach assumes that the main actor in foreign policy is a rational individual who can be relied on to make informed, calculated decisions that maximize value and perceived benefits to the state
Western Standard - actions are assumed to follow moral and ethical considerations as well as greater global welfare
(UN - 93 countries supported suspending Russia from the Human Rights council - theoretically supporting a Western Standard of rational actor)
Realpolitik Standard - a system of politics or principles based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations.
(UN - 82 countries either voted against or abstained in the same vote)
The world doesn't revolve around Western Morality politics, and a good portion of it actually rejects it outright.