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mike340 · 05-14-2020, 01:56 PM

Reduced as briefly as possible (sort of;-) (I have a hard time keeping the scientist in me under control.)

(1) Avoid PG in general if possible. Our infection rates have been astronomical. I give info by zip so if you need to go somewhere you know where it is particularly bad. For example, near the University of Maryland (where I live) we live in a small bubble (one zip code) of "reasonableness" (5 per thousand) in the middle of almost all the worst areas of the state (up to 28 per thousand, worse than any state or country in the world.) So the voluminous zip code info is to help people understand in more detail where to avoid.

Both county and zip info are reported in cases per million, the same as Worldometer. So PG has passed 11 cases per thousand. (For cases per thousand, take the first column and divide by 1,000).

(2) Not stated above. For the moment, especially avoid latinos that you don't know. They are one of the main reasons that the state's infection rate has not stabilized. While the numbers from yesterday were outliers (2 new white cases, 30 black, 209 latino), today's increase fits with the usual: 1.6+/-0.1% new cases for whites/blacks (i.e. lockstep) and 5.1% latino (i.e. 2 to 3 times the white/black rate). We live in a heavily latino area and we see groups of them frequently ignoring all the advice and walking in large groups and having parties (and forget the masks). (Mostly young*) latinos now constitute more cases than whites even though their population in the state is 1/5th of the white population. From the conversations that my (Mexican) wife has with her sister in Mexico, the Mexican people (there) are much more responsible (in spite of their president) than the latinos here. (He's telling them "just live your daily lives; the epidemic will just take care of itself"; in response, the individual neighborhoods and states are taking action. But he's cooking the books on the epidemic anyways.**)

(3) The state, along with a lot of others, pretty much never reports recoveries. Supposedly about 88% of the people who have ever gotten the virus here are still considered "active cases". You can never have the curve go down if nobody is ever declared "recovered" unless you start murdering the people who have it. So, judging from what I saw from Germany's stats, I tried to do a "most conservative" case of what our stats would be if we followed their general trend line. (I chose them since they do report recoveries and their criterion is good since "recovereds" don't seem to generate much further infection.) So my back of the envelope calculation is as follows:

Active cases = total cases today - 0.8 * total cases 14 days ago.

This makes the assumption that
(1) All cases in the last 2 weeks are active, and
(2) 20% of the cases at least 14 days ago are still lingering.

These assumptions are quite conservative but generate active case counts that are about half of what the state is reporting.
(For point (2) above the active case counts would be
black: 5,071 cases; white: 3,531; latino: 4,943)

Hopefully this isn't too long a read. I'm (overly) comfortable with numbers, and don't know when to stop sometimes.

*"Mostly young" is derived from the fact that the death rate for latinos is much lower than for other groups.

**Look at the Worldometer report. For Mexico, the number of "active cases" has stayed around 8,000 for a while, but they're getting about 2,000 new cases per day, so supposedly everybody "recovers" (or dies) in 4 days, and those few "active cases" are generating new cases at a rate of 25% per day!

05-14-2020, 01:56 PM	#566
mike340 Special Teams Join Date: Jun 2006 Age: 68 Posts: 322	Re: Coronavirus (non political) Reduced as briefly as possible (sort of;-) (I have a hard time keeping the scientist in me under control.) (1) Avoid PG in general if possible. Our infection rates have been astronomical. I give info by zip so if you need to go somewhere you know where it is particularly bad. For example, near the University of Maryland (where I live) we live in a small bubble (one zip code) of "reasonableness" (5 per thousand) in the middle of almost all the worst areas of the state (up to 28 per thousand, worse than any state or country in the world.) So the voluminous zip code info is to help people understand in more detail where to avoid. Both county and zip info are reported in cases per million, the same as Worldometer. So PG has passed 11 cases per thousand. (For cases per thousand, take the first column and divide by 1,000). (2) Not stated above. For the moment, especially avoid latinos that you don't know. They are one of the main reasons that the state's infection rate has not stabilized. While the numbers from yesterday were outliers (2 new white cases, 30 black, 209 latino), today's increase fits with the usual: 1.6+/-0.1% new cases for whites/blacks (i.e. lockstep) and 5.1% latino (i.e. 2 to 3 times the white/black rate). We live in a heavily latino area and we see groups of them frequently ignoring all the advice and walking in large groups and having parties (and forget the masks). (Mostly young) latinos now constitute more cases than whites even though their population in the state is 1/5th of the white population. From the conversations that my (Mexican) wife has with her sister in Mexico, the Mexican people (there) are much more responsible (in spite of their president) than the latinos here. (He's telling them "just live your daily lives; the epidemic will just take care of itself"; in response, the individual neighborhoods and states are taking action. But he's cooking the books on the epidemic anyways.) (3) The state, along with a lot of others, pretty much never reports recoveries. Supposedly about 88% of the people who have ever gotten the virus here are still considered "active cases". You can never have the curve go down if nobody is ever declared "recovered" unless you start murdering the people who have it. So, judging from what I saw from Germany's stats, I tried to do a "most conservative" case of what our stats would be if we followed their general trend line. (I chose them since they do report recoveries and their criterion is good since "recovereds" don't seem to generate much further infection.) So my back of the envelope calculation is as follows: Active cases = total cases today - 0.8 total cases 14 days ago. This makes the assumption that (1) All cases in the last 2 weeks are active, and (2) 20% of the cases at least 14 days ago are still lingering. These assumptions are quite conservative but generate active case counts that are about half of what the state is reporting. (For point (2) above the active case counts would be black: 5,071 cases; white: 3,531; latino: 4,943) Hopefully this isn't too long a read. I'm (overly) comfortable with numbers, and don't know when to stop sometimes. "Mostly young" is derived from the fact that the death rate for latinos is much lower than for other groups. *Look at the Worldometer report. For Mexico, the number of "active cases" has stayed around 8,000 for a while, but they're getting about 2,000 new cases per day, so supposedly everybody "recovers" (or dies) in 4 days, and those few "active cases" are generating new cases at a rate of 25% per day!