Special Teams
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
These are NOT available on the state website or the Coronavirus stats page from Worldometer.
In particular, the zip code information for the state site report the number of cases, not the proportion of the population that is infected (i.e. cases per million). For example, there may be two zip codes that have 100 cases. The state site reports that. But one zip may have 1,000 people in it and the other 40,000. In the first, 10% of the people have it, but in the second only 0.25% have it. This is NOT reported on the state site, and I feel it is a much more important stat than what they give. The same holds for the county information. For the zip codes, for example, the population sizes in Maryland vary from 10 to 70,174. Needless to say, I don't expect that the zip code with 10 people will have 9 cases any time soon. (They also don't report nursing home cases by zip, and I don't feel like having to sort it all out. There was an outlying zip code (high infection rate and not in P.G.) and I investigated. It turned out that 70% of their cases at that time were due to an infected nursing home in the zip code.) About 1/4 of all cases in Maryland are due to infections of residents or staff of elder care facilities. (Most of these are of the residents.) I have not adjusted for these in ranking counties as I don't have time. (I have no need to go into nursing homes right now, so infections in the residents shouldn't impact my chance of getting the virus if I go to that area and avoid the nursing homes.)
Second: Worldometer has no reporting of active cases per million, only total cases per million. Your chance of getting infected in a given place have to do with ACTIVE cases per million, not TOTAL cases per million. If they're dead or recovered they won't infect you (unless it's a place like Mexico which declares them cured after about 4 days.)
So I did these stats because they are NOT available from the Maryland website. I also have not reported on the stats I have from the Worldometer site, which, once again, fails to report active cases per (million) population, only TOTAL cases per (million) population.
I work from the data provided by these 2 sites and some population information I got from other places (or backed into for the Worldometer site, using their info on total cases and total cases per million) and update (for my family) daily, trying to figure out the safest places to shop for food and deposit checks to the bank.
As far as fixing the format, I've already got my hands full trying to teach my 6 kids who are at home all day, as well as trying to get back in shape (lose 30 lbs.) and figuring out how to get errands done living in the middle of a disaster zone, with 6 of the worst 12 zip codes in Maryland as our neighbors. (I'm 63 and a half and so have to be very careful.)
As far as formatting, while I have a doctorate in Computer Science and have won an international math competition, I am very much on the theoretical side of things and don't know how to make things look pretty quickly. (My 18-year-old could, as he is very good at javascript, but I can never seem to get him to do what I ask. Go figure!)
Anyway, I put this info up so people could make informed decisions on where to avoid right now, and because this info is not readily available. (I have better things to do than copy what others have done.)
Finally, I found that while the Worldometer site reports what the states say are the active cases, a lot of the "active" cases should now be recovered. So I reported my estimate about the number of active cases, based on Germany's example, since Germany seems to both (1) declare people recovered, and (2) not have had a recurrence due to people being declared recovered too quickly. The very quick back-of-the-envelope estimate is that the number of active cases should be about half the number of total cases for all the states from Massachusetts down to D.C. (Mass, RI, Conn, NY, NJ, Pa, Del, Md, DC) based on the historical progression of the number of cases. Currently, Maryland is reporting 88% of their total cases as being "active" cases. This is a sham. (Since none of the definitions of "active" case are consistent with the reported numbers, I should probably report this number as "probable active cases", whereas the state's numbers may be appropriately dubbed, "number of people who have been infected who have a non-zero (albeit small) chance of being infectious".)
Interestingly, in terms of "active cases per population", we get a different list of worst states than "total cases per population".
On the left is the (beginning of the) order for Worldometer by total cases/million and on the right is active cases/million (statistic not offered on Worldometer)
(1) New York ; (1)New Jersey !
(2) New Jersey ; (2) New York
(3) Massachusetts ; (3) Rhode Island
(4) Rhode Island ; (4) Connecticut
(5) Connecticut ; (5) DC
(6) DC ; (6) Massachusetts
(7) Delaware ; (7) Illinois
(8) Louisiana (26th on other side) ; (8) Maryland
(9) Illinois ; (9) Nebraska (13 on other side)
(10) Maryland ; (10) Pennsylvania
(11) Pennsylvania ; (11) Delaware
Note that Louisiana goes from the Worldometer total cases per million (population) of
6,782 to (Worldometer unavailable) active cases per million of 1,521.
Many countries also move dramatically once we categorize by active cases/million as opposed to total cases/million.
The US is 5th in active cases per million (behind San Marino, Vatican, Qatar, and Singapore) and the is the 3rd worst with population over a million. Here are a few countries with reported total cases per million and active cases per million (not reported)
US: 4,255 vs. 3,107
Belgium: 4,640 vs. 2,699
Andorra: 9,810 vs. 1,838
France: 2,730 vs. 1,431
Italy: 3,659 vs. 1,344
Spain: 5,764 vs. 1,329
Ireland: 4,707 vs. 940
Luxembourg: 6,221 vs. 291
Germany: 2,067 vs. 218
Austria: 1,772 vs. 132
Iceland: 5,278 vs. 44
Note that 6 of these are worse than the US in total cases per population, but none is worse in active cases per population.
Anyway, if this isn't helping anybody I don't need to put it up. But if you want some stats I may be able to get them. I'll at least try to get a better estimate of the actual "infective" cases for Maryland if I have time.
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