Quote:
Originally Posted by 30gut
I think we can discuss draft choices without wandering off into speculation or dealing in maybes. But as this thread illustrates, its not the only way.
Every team has a draft board and most teams say they pick best player available. If a team says they stayed true to their board it doesn't necessarily make them right. Only time can answer that question. So back to your example lets say a team liked Russell Wilson but figured he would be available in the 5th round (or like the Redskins admitted the 4th round) but Wilson gets taken in the 3rd round then yes the teams that passed on him with the thought that he would be available later miscalculated his availability and therefore made a mistake. It happens all the time, even the best GM hit about a rate of ~60 so there will be mistakes/misses of omission or commission every draft. So extending your line of though further (even though its not my point in regards to the QB) Bill Parcels or Polian one of the 2 says 'its better to take a player you like 1 round early then 1 pick to late'
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If a GM is deciding who to draft based on where they think they will go, then the GM messed up. They need to scout the players and apply a ranking to them. If Shanny had Russell Wilson as a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and chose not to draft him until the 4th round for the simple reason that he thought he would be there, then he did not stay true to his board. So no... thats not my line of thought at all.
They need to base their board on their scouting acumen and not the perception of what 31 other teams will do. If you have a guy rated as a 5th rounder and then panic and grab him in the 3rd because you convinced yourself that he would be taken by another team then, then all you did was panic and not stay true to your board. You passed over a lot of players that you had rated higher due to panic. If you have a guy rated as a 3rd rounder but pass on him in rounds 3 and 4 because you believe he will be there in the 5th, then you did not stay true to your board.
If you base QB's above all else, then that will come out when you are rating players and deciding on your draft order. If you are desperate for a safety, then that will come out when you rate the player. Once you have that complete though, stay the course.