Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=sandtrapjack;675413]Well the lottery is high risk high reward. But if you don't have the winning ticket, no worries just play again next week.

But for a QB taken #1 overall. Your organization will invest MILLIONS in him. And IF he does work out, you get your reward.

But history shows there have been a substantially high number of QB's taken that high that did NOT work out. And now the organization is stuck. Owe the player millions of dollars that could be going to a more productive prospect (or 2 or 3!). And you cant trade him because his contract is so huge.

A team can win and survive if you select a DE, DT, OL, RB, any other position on the field #1 and they end up being a bust.

But the QB position, no way. Once you are committed to this kid, thats it, you are in bed with him for the long haul.

[B]I'm not ignoring the reward part. I just don't think it is worth the high of a risk or gamble selecting a QB that high.[/B]

Any other position that busts, and it just affects that position. But if you bust on your QB, that affects all 53 players on that roster.

I would take Suh or McCoy (DT) over Bradford/Clausen with the top pick of the draft for just the reasons I stated. if Suh or McCoy (DT) turn out to be a bust, well that is a lot better risk than if my QB is a bust.[/quote]

If that is true, then to be logically consistent you must argue that the Colts were wrong to draft Manning #1 overall or the Cowboys were wrong to draft Aikman #1 overall.

To recognize the pitfalls of drafting a QB at #1 is wise. To turn it into a "don't draft a QB" dogma is foolish. The situation is more complex than your arguments allow.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=SmootSmack;675418]There are plenty of ways to build up the offensive line beside spending the 4th overall pick on an offensive lineman[/quote]

but we need 2 first 2 round picks this year bro

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=Audi;675427]Exactly. You may think that draft was a "surprise" but that's because you were probably following some mock draft on an Internet site.

"Polian recently said two things are true:

• For those who actually do the drafting, the first-round is rarely a mystery.

• It usually doesn't play out as those doing the mocking predict."

"He said the reason for that is the teams have access to data that those performing mock drafts don't often possess. For that reason, he said, some players fall down the draft board. A players' declining stock may be a draft-day surprise, but Polian said it's often because of a factor about which league personnel officials already knew."

“You have to really work hard to ignore the data. There are very few exceptions anymore. Hardly ever. They almost go off in many ways almost exactly how you have them rated.”[/quote]
I think it'd be common sense to say that those doing the drafting will be closer than the analysts. The ones doing the drafting have a better idea of the team's future, additional moves, etc that they have planned. Goes without saying imo

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=Lotus;675254]Maybe. Or maybe the Rams take the lesser value because they get a starting QB but save the #1 pick money.[/quote]


Which is what I keep hearing. They wanted to can their HC after one year due to how the season played out. They decided to give him one more year to try and get it right. Rumor is no HC is going to bank his last ditch effort on a Rookie QB who might be a bust. Their HC is looking for a QB who can get the job done and although some of us have issues with JC he is safe with the ball which is most likely what the Rams need.

Another rumor I heard was they wanted to trade out of that spot cause they either didn't want to pay that price for a player or didn't think anyone was worth the money. If no one wants to trade or they can't get the value for the pick of course they will keep it and pick someone at a positon they need.

Trading with the Skins gives them a good QB who's safe with the ball and seasoned and a draft pick of their choice at at lower cost. Most likely DL which is both of their needs.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=Audi;675427]Exactly. You may think that draft was a "surprise" but that's because you were probably following some mock draft on an Internet site.

"Polian recently said two things are true:

• For those who actually do the drafting, the first-round is rarely a mystery.

• It usually doesn't play out as those doing the mocking predict."[/quote]

Yes, your hyping up of GMs as omniscient gods with perfect foresight is something else. The mocks may not get freaking order right, but generally right about the general vincinity of where the players are taken.

I [B]wouldn't[/B] be surprised if the Rams take EITHER Bradford or Suh this year. Polian isn't surprised because he probably accounted most of the ways the picks could have gone, NOT because he has some godly ESP.
The Jets could have taken Leinart, and no one would be that surprised either because he was one of those top prospects. If Leinart fell to 8, that wouldn't have been surprising either, because the Lions bombed with Harrington and may have wanted a fresh start. I'll bet he played out all of those potential scenarios and wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if ANY of them happened.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=Audi;675420]I've asked this before. Which teams does history show (and make sure the quantity is a "substantially high number") are stuck due to picking a quarterback?[/quote]

thats an interesting point man. the raiders, 49ers, lions were mediocre to bad before they drafted j russell, a smith and j harrington respectively.

so, when they "busted", where did their franchise end up? mediocre to bad.

we are coming off a 4-12 season, following an 8-8 season (which ended badly).

how many times are we going to be picking 4th overall again? in another 10 years? if shanny and allen think claussen or bradford are going to be good to great (with JC = an avg qb), then i think they pull that trigger.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

Grossman is terrible. End of discussion. He has to be the worst QB ever to QB a team to a Super Bowl. He's just awful. I honestly would've kept Collins. Even though he's old and slow w/ a noodle arm the guy seems to do well when called upon. Grossman can't handle the center exchage, can't read a defense and throws terrible INT's. He simply played his way out of Chicago. I hope nothing happens to JC.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=SirClintonPortis;675439]Yes, your hyping up of GMs as omniscient gods with perfect foresight is something else. The mocks may not get freaking order right, but generally right about the general vincinity of where the players are taken.

I [B]wouldn't[/B] be surprised if the Rams take EITHER Bradford or Suh this year. Polian isn't surprised because he probably accounted most of the ways the picks could have gone, NOT because he has some godly ESP.
The Jets could have taken Leinart, and no one would be that surprised either because he was one of those top prospects. If Leinart fell to 8, that wouldn't have been surprising either, because the Lions bombed with Harrington and may have wanted a fresh start. I'll bet he played out all of those potential scenarios and wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if ANY of them happened.[/quote]

You're right. You and the mock drafts know better. All GMs should be required to use Mel Kiper's Big Board as a reference from now on.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=over the mountain;675440]thats an interesting point man. the raiders, 49ers, lions were mediocre to bad before they drafted j russell, a smith and j harrington respectively.

so, when they "busted", where did their franchise end up? mediocre to bad.

we are coming off a 4-12 season, following an 8-8 season (which ended badly).

how many times are we going to be picking 4th overall again? in another 10 years? if shanny and allen think claussen or bradford are going to be good to great (with JC = an avg qb), then i think they pull that trigger.[/quote]

The Rams are going to take Bradford, so that leaves Clausen. Is he really worth the 4th overall pick in the draft? I don't think so. Bradford is clearly the more skilled passer. IMO we should try and make a deal w/ Cleveland and trade back.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[url=http://twitter.com/Russellmania09/status/10629475078]Twitter / Chris Russell: #Redskins QB Jason Campbel ...[/url]

#Redskins QB Jason Campbell reaction to Rex: I am good. Just worrying about what I have to do to be ready. Kind of knew about it a week ago

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=Lotus;675374]Well, ok. I have a different perspective. I think that Bradford and possibly Clausen will be very good NFL QB's and therefore will be worth the risk.

How long has it been since we had an elite QB? How long has it been since we're down 3 late in a game but we can think, "It's ok, we have ______ at QB," the way that Colts and Chargers can?

I have no problem with drafting Okung since the line needs help. But I also have no problem with drafting a QB at #4.[/quote]

How long has it been? I'd say since the early to mid 70's. I know you might slam me but as I remember growing up Theismann was not elite, but he got the job done. I can remember the announcers talking about how other said QB's were better % wise but we got to the SB with him.

I don't count Shroeder, Williams, or Rypien as elite QB's even though they got the job done and we all might argue now that they are elite. But at the time they were not considered elite.

Freotte, Green, Shuller, Johnson, George, Banks, Weurfel, Matthews, Ramsey, Brunell, Campbell, Collins, Colt or Grossman I definitly would not consider elite.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=skinsfan69;675445]Grossman is terrible. End of discussion.[B] He has to be the worst QB ever to QB a team to a Super Bowl. [/B]He's just awful. I honestly would've kept Collins. Even though he's old and slow w/ a noodle arm the guy seems to do well when called upon. Grossman can't handle the center exchage, can't read a defense and throws terrible INT's. He simply played his way out of Chicago. I hope nothing happens to JC.[/quote]

I forgot about that. You're right though, worse than Trent Dilfer.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=tryfuhl;675432]but we need 2 first 2 round picks this year bro[/quote]

I would argue that if we could get a whole team of 1st round picks we need it. But it's not logical.

If Okung is not a good fit for the scheme Shanahan wants to implement and no one else is projected to be worthy of a #4 pick that are good in the zone blocking scheme then what do you do? The OL draft depth is huge. There are many players who will fit into Shanahan's scheme but not worthy of the #4 pick overall.

Trade up with the Rams get the QB we need, don't throw away draft picks though so in the second round we can get an OL. Hopefully we pick up more picks from other players we tendered and pick up more picks. Hopefully OL.

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=SBXVII;675457]How long has it been? I'd say since the early to mid 70's. I know you might slam me but as I remember growing up Theismann was not elite, but he got the job done. I can remember the announcers talking about how other said QB's were better % wise but we got to the SB with him.

I don't count Shroeder, Williams, or Rypien as elite QB's even though they got the job done and we all might argue now that they are elite. But at the time they were not considered elite.

Freotte, Green, Shuller, Johnson, George, Banks, Weurfel, Matthews, Ramsey, Brunell, Campbell, Collins, Colt or Grossman I definitly would not consider elite.[/quote]

I essentially agree. Arguably, Sonny Jurgenson was the last "elite" QB that we had. Can't we change this? Instead of watching the Mannings and Rivers of the world beat us, how about if we had one of those guys on our team for once?

Re: Redskins Sign Grossman
 

[quote=skinsfan69;675445]Grossman is terrible. End of discussion. He has to be the worst QB ever to QB a team to a Super Bowl. He's just awful. I honestly would've kept Collins. Even though he's old and slow w/ a noodle arm the guy seems to do well when called upon. [B]Grossman can't handle the center exchage, can't read a defense and throws terrible INT's. He simply played his way out of Chicago.[/B] I hope nothing happens to JC.[/quote]

Damn for a moment I thought you were refering to JC. ;)