Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! [Archive] - Page 2

That Guy

10-26-2005, 04:08 PM

from the article... basically saying that fumbles tend to even out, recovery is purely dumb luck, and the redskins have had bad luck recovering on both offense (2 of 6) and defense (2 of 9) so far this season.

"Fumble recoveries are random

OK, so you read the description at the top about how we adjust the raw stats. You saw the bit about strength of schedule and thought, "Hey, that makes sense." But what on earth do we mean by "adjusting to cancel out the effect of luck on fumble recovery?" Isn't turnover margin an important part of football?

Yes, it is. Turnovers are hugely important, and there is a lot of skill involved in picking off a pass or stripping the ball from an opponent. But there is virtually no skill involved in being the last person to hold the ball at the bottom of the pile when the refs get down there. If you don't believe me, ask Edgerrin James and Corey Ivy.

We wrote about this in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, using New Orleans as an example. Over the past four seasons, Aaron Brooks fumbled the ball 13, 11, 14 and 13 times. But his official count of fumbles according to the league — i.e., fumbles lost to the defense — went 2, 5, 11, and 2. The quarterback who lost only two fumbles in 2004 didn't suddenly learn to hold on to the ball. He's the same guy as the year before, just with better luck.

And this year, it reversed again. The New Orleans Saints have fumbled the ball on offense seven times this season (four by Brooks) and the defense has recovered every single one. That's just dumb luck, but it is game-changing dumb luck. Since roughly half of fumbles are recovered by the defense, that's three or four times New Orleans has turned the ball over based on random chance.

I know, some of you are saying that the Saints are just an exception, that fumble recovery is a real skill, that certain coaches teach their players to pounce on the ball. Let's look at the other offenses that led the league last year in percentage of fumbles recovered.

Last year, four offenses recovered at least 60 percent of their fumbles: the Jets, Giants, Cardinals and Chargers. This year the Giants have recovered two of seven, the Cardinals three of eight, and the Chargers one of four. Only the Jets have still recovered more fumbles than they've lost, although not for lack of trying: after fumbling just 13 times last year, the Jets have already fumbled 16 times on offense this year.

How about defenses? The Bears recovered the highest percentage of opposition fumbles in 2004, but this year they've recovered just two of six. Meanwhile the Eagles, who only recovered 29 percent of opposition fumbles last year, have recovered five of nine this year. The Broncos only recovered seven of 17 opposition fumbles last year but already have seven fumble recoveries this season with just 10 tries.

What does this mean for our ratings? It means that a team with a particularly good record of fumble recoveries could come back to earth. That brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, who after last night have stripped the ball 10 times and recovered an astonishing nine of them. That's been a big part of their 5-2 record, and there's no reason to believe it will continue. Other lucky defenses include the Panthers (8 of 9), the Giants (8 of 9) and the 49ers (5 of 5). Unlucky defenses include the Redskins (2 of 9) and Seahawks (1 of 9).

The Falcons have had strong luck on offense too, recovering five fumbles out of seven. (Let's be honest, Michael Vick doesn't have some magic ability to will the ball into the arms of Barry Stokes.) No offense has been as unlucky as New Orleans — let's be honest, this season no team has been as unlucky as New Orleans in any conceivable fashion — but other teams with poor fumble recovery luck on offense include the Patriots (1 of 5), the Steelers (1 of 5) the Eagles (1 of 5), and — here they are again — the Redskins (2 of 6)."


	Commanders Post at The Warpath > Commanders Football > Locker Room Main Forum > Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! PDA Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! Pages : 1 [2] aehs77 10-26-2005, 03:34 PM Either one beats what the wife calls me.and what might that be jgalecpa 10-26-2005, 03:53 PM and what might that be "You short, arrogant little prick". What makes me mad is I'm not that short. Jim That Guy 10-26-2005, 04:08 PM from the article... basically saying that fumbles tend to even out, recovery is purely dumb luck, and the redskins have had bad luck recovering on both offense (2 of 6) and defense (2 of 9) so far this season. "Fumble recoveries are random OK, so you read the description at the top about how we adjust the raw stats. You saw the bit about strength of schedule and thought, "Hey, that makes sense." But what on earth do we mean by "adjusting to cancel out the effect of luck on fumble recovery?" Isn't turnover margin an important part of football? Yes, it is. Turnovers are hugely important, and there is a lot of skill involved in picking off a pass or stripping the ball from an opponent. But there is virtually no skill involved in being the last person to hold the ball at the bottom of the pile when the refs get down there. If you don't believe me, ask Edgerrin James and Corey Ivy. We wrote about this in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, using New Orleans as an example. Over the past four seasons, Aaron Brooks fumbled the ball 13, 11, 14 and 13 times. But his official count of fumbles according to the league — i.e., fumbles lost to the defense — went 2, 5, 11, and 2. The quarterback who lost only two fumbles in 2004 didn't suddenly learn to hold on to the ball. He's the same guy as the year before, just with better luck. And this year, it reversed again. The New Orleans Saints have fumbled the ball on offense seven times this season (four by Brooks) and the defense has recovered every single one. That's just dumb luck, but it is game-changing dumb luck. Since roughly half of fumbles are recovered by the defense, that's three or four times New Orleans has turned the ball over based on random chance. I know, some of you are saying that the Saints are just an exception, that fumble recovery is a real skill, that certain coaches teach their players to pounce on the ball. Let's look at the other offenses that led the league last year in percentage of fumbles recovered. Last year, four offenses recovered at least 60 percent of their fumbles: the Jets, Giants, Cardinals and Chargers. This year the Giants have recovered two of seven, the Cardinals three of eight, and the Chargers one of four. Only the Jets have still recovered more fumbles than they've lost, although not for lack of trying: after fumbling just 13 times last year, the Jets have already fumbled 16 times on offense this year. How about defenses? The Bears recovered the highest percentage of opposition fumbles in 2004, but this year they've recovered just two of six. Meanwhile the Eagles, who only recovered 29 percent of opposition fumbles last year, have recovered five of nine this year. The Broncos only recovered seven of 17 opposition fumbles last year but already have seven fumble recoveries this season with just 10 tries. What does this mean for our ratings? It means that a team with a particularly good record of fumble recoveries could come back to earth. That brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, who after last night have stripped the ball 10 times and recovered an astonishing nine of them. That's been a big part of their 5-2 record, and there's no reason to believe it will continue. Other lucky defenses include the Panthers (8 of 9), the Giants (8 of 9) and the 49ers (5 of 5). Unlucky defenses include the Redskins (2 of 9) and Seahawks (1 of 9). The Falcons have had strong luck on offense too, recovering five fumbles out of seven. (Let's be honest, Michael Vick doesn't have some magic ability to will the ball into the arms of Barry Stokes.) No offense has been as unlucky as New Orleans — let's be honest, this season no team has been as unlucky as New Orleans in any conceivable fashion — but other teams with poor fumble recovery luck on offense include the Patriots (1 of 5), the Steelers (1 of 5) the Eagles (1 of 5), and — here they are again — the Redskins (2 of 6)."