SmootSmack
09-09-2005, 01:39 AM
Actually, it's not P. Diddy but rather some formula called P. Diff compiled by the Wall Street Journal. Below is the article (I pasted it here for those that don't have a WSJ subscription):
The Divine Dozen
September 9, 2005; Page W8
The concept is simple. An NFL team's won-lost record is related to how many points it scores and allows. But each season, a few teams experience a disconnect between the victory and points ratios that can result from a few lucky or unlucky bounces of the pigskin.
That disconnect is a reason why a team can be seen as a surprise -- or a disappointment -- in any given year. And often the next year, that team's points tally and number of wins fall back into balance, and expectations are once again satisfied.
To quantify this, we'll use P-wins, or Pythagorean wins, a concept first applied to baseball by Bill James. Doing the math requires a trip back to high-school algebra: Take the square of the number of points a team scores, then divide it by that same number added to the square of the number of points they allow. Multiply that number by the number of games the team plays, and you get P-Wins. Subtract actual wins from P-Wins, and you get P-Diff. And if that's not complicated enough, to compensate for the higher scoring in a typical NFL game, Daryl Morey, formerly of sports analysis firm Stats Inc. suggests raising them to an exponent of 2.37.
A negative P-Diff means you're playing over your head. A positive P-Diff would mean your team is better than its win-loss record would indicate. For example, the 2003 Carolina Panthers went 11-5 despite outscoring their opponents by only 21 points, for a -2.36 P-Diff. Last year, they went 7-9, despite an almost identical +16 points gap, for a +1.44 P-Diff.
Here, with P-Diff in mind, are our playoff picks for each conference (in alphabetical order).
AFC:
Buffalo Bills: The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers outscored their opponents by 121 points and went 15-1. The Bills had a scoring advantage of 111 points, but at 9-7, missed the playoffs. Their +1.98 P-Diff suggests that they could give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East.
Cincinnati Bengals: Last year's 2004 Bengals (+.05 P-Diff) had the same 8-8 record as the '03 squad, but went from scoring 38 points less than their competition to scoring two points more. Expect a wild card or better.
Indianapolis Colts: Since the arrival of Tony Dungy, architect of the fearsome Tampa Bay defense, the Colts (-.49 P-Diff) have allowed more points each year, though the offense makes up for it. This could be the year that the Colts defense steps up, and Indy takes a great leap forward.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs weren't as good as their 13-3 record in '03 -- or as bad as their 7-9 record last year, when they outscored their opponents by 48. Their +1.99 P-Diff shows that a little luck could nab them the AFC West title.
New England Patriots: Their -1.62 P-Diff seems ominous -- but it's almost a game better than their 2003 P-Diff (-2.62). Still, losing defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis could turn their quest for another AFC East title into a dogfight.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Their -3.52 P-Diff suggests they'll have their work cut out for them holding off the Bengals and Ravens (.57 P-Diff).
NFC:
Arizona Cardinals: Last year was only coach Dennis Green's second losing season, but the Cards (+.82 P-Diff) improved. In 2003, they were outscored by 227 points. In 2004, it was just 38. The difference: better defense. An uptick in quality from their Kurt Warner-led offense, and they're in the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers stumbled early last season, but won six of their last eight, posting a 1.44 P-Diff. Look for a 10-win season, as the Falcons (an NFC-worst -2.92 P-Diff) fall back to earth.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (+.24 P-Diff) are the Colts Lite: Great offense, little defense. P-wins suggests that they'll close the gap on the Green Bay Packers (-.97 P Diff).
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are fighting both their -1.51 P-Diff and history: Four of the last five Super Bowl runners up had a losing record the following year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs' 2.91 P-Diff suggests they'll slug it out with the Panthers for the division, earning at least a Wild Card.
Washington Redskins: True or False: The Redskins (1.06 P-Diff) allowed fewer defensive yards than the Patriots. If you said true, you know why Joe Gibbs's team is far better than their 6-10 record indicated.
The Divine Dozen
September 9, 2005; Page W8
The concept is simple. An NFL team's won-lost record is related to how many points it scores and allows. But each season, a few teams experience a disconnect between the victory and points ratios that can result from a few lucky or unlucky bounces of the pigskin.
That disconnect is a reason why a team can be seen as a surprise -- or a disappointment -- in any given year. And often the next year, that team's points tally and number of wins fall back into balance, and expectations are once again satisfied.
To quantify this, we'll use P-wins, or Pythagorean wins, a concept first applied to baseball by Bill James. Doing the math requires a trip back to high-school algebra: Take the square of the number of points a team scores, then divide it by that same number added to the square of the number of points they allow. Multiply that number by the number of games the team plays, and you get P-Wins. Subtract actual wins from P-Wins, and you get P-Diff. And if that's not complicated enough, to compensate for the higher scoring in a typical NFL game, Daryl Morey, formerly of sports analysis firm Stats Inc. suggests raising them to an exponent of 2.37.
A negative P-Diff means you're playing over your head. A positive P-Diff would mean your team is better than its win-loss record would indicate. For example, the 2003 Carolina Panthers went 11-5 despite outscoring their opponents by only 21 points, for a -2.36 P-Diff. Last year, they went 7-9, despite an almost identical +16 points gap, for a +1.44 P-Diff.
Here, with P-Diff in mind, are our playoff picks for each conference (in alphabetical order).
AFC:
Buffalo Bills: The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers outscored their opponents by 121 points and went 15-1. The Bills had a scoring advantage of 111 points, but at 9-7, missed the playoffs. Their +1.98 P-Diff suggests that they could give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East.
Cincinnati Bengals: Last year's 2004 Bengals (+.05 P-Diff) had the same 8-8 record as the '03 squad, but went from scoring 38 points less than their competition to scoring two points more. Expect a wild card or better.
Indianapolis Colts: Since the arrival of Tony Dungy, architect of the fearsome Tampa Bay defense, the Colts (-.49 P-Diff) have allowed more points each year, though the offense makes up for it. This could be the year that the Colts defense steps up, and Indy takes a great leap forward.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs weren't as good as their 13-3 record in '03 -- or as bad as their 7-9 record last year, when they outscored their opponents by 48. Their +1.99 P-Diff shows that a little luck could nab them the AFC West title.
New England Patriots: Their -1.62 P-Diff seems ominous -- but it's almost a game better than their 2003 P-Diff (-2.62). Still, losing defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis could turn their quest for another AFC East title into a dogfight.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Their -3.52 P-Diff suggests they'll have their work cut out for them holding off the Bengals and Ravens (.57 P-Diff).
NFC:
Arizona Cardinals: Last year was only coach Dennis Green's second losing season, but the Cards (+.82 P-Diff) improved. In 2003, they were outscored by 227 points. In 2004, it was just 38. The difference: better defense. An uptick in quality from their Kurt Warner-led offense, and they're in the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers stumbled early last season, but won six of their last eight, posting a 1.44 P-Diff. Look for a 10-win season, as the Falcons (an NFC-worst -2.92 P-Diff) fall back to earth.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (+.24 P-Diff) are the Colts Lite: Great offense, little defense. P-wins suggests that they'll close the gap on the Green Bay Packers (-.97 P Diff).
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are fighting both their -1.51 P-Diff and history: Four of the last five Super Bowl runners up had a losing record the following year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs' 2.91 P-Diff suggests they'll slug it out with the Panthers for the division, earning at least a Wild Card.
Washington Redskins: True or False: The Redskins (1.06 P-Diff) allowed fewer defensive yards than the Patriots. If you said true, you know why Joe Gibbs's team is far better than their 6-10 record indicated.