The Adam Peters Thread

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Fascinating stuff on AP handling the Eagles trade in the draft.

At first I didn't think he got as much value as the Panters and Giants did for their picks but I was mistaken.

Pick 39 trade favored Panters by 69pts.

RAMS RECEIVE:
Round 2, 2024: No. 39 (from New York Giants) -- valued at 510pts

PANTHERS RECEIVE: Trade favored Panthers by 69pts.
Round 2, 2024: No. 52; Pick traded to Colts -- V= 380
Round 5, 2024: No. 155; Pick traded to Eagles --V= 29
Round 2, 2025 V= 170


Pick 40 trade favored Redskins by 74pts

EAGLES RECEIVE:
Round 2, 2024: No. 40 (from Chicago) -- V= 500
Round 3, 2024: No. 78; Pick traded to the Texans -- V = 200
Round 5, 2024: No. 152 (from Seattle) -- WR Ainias Smith V= 23

Redskins RECEIVE: Trade favored Redskins by 74pts
Round 2, 2024: No. 50 (From New Orleans) --V = 400
Round 2, 2024: No. 53 -- V = 370
Round 5, 2024: No. 161 -- V= 27


Pick 41 trade was equal value

SAINTS RECEIVE:

Round 2, 2024: No. 41 (from New York Jets) -- V=490

PACKERS RECEIVE:
Round 2, 2024: No. 45 (from Denver) -- V= 450
Round 5, 2024: No. 168; Pick traded to Bills -- v = 25
Round 6, 2024: No. 190; Pick traded to Eagles -- v = 15

“Otherwise we will pick dude”

This is how Gen Xers will rule the world. Practical, straight forward with proper slang.Lol so true! Peters is the man. I think the NFL will be surprised how improved this team is from 2023 to 2024. Franchise transformation.

HTTC!

I don't know if anyone's done any real science on the value chart. Someone made one up and everyone's just kind of been going by it ever since (the good enough or "seems right" principal).

It wouldn't be easy to regression test either (only track rookie contract? games played? games started? bonuses for superbowl/pro bowls? value for general right of refusal on 2nd contract? how do you account for injuries or performance metrics (or do you bother?))

Just saying, the chart isn't perfect or set in stone.

I'd doubt real science is truly possible given the crapshoot nature of the draft. It's a statistical model based on known and perceived value and performance. But like the QBR calculation, its the same model applied to all, so the relative value of each position is constant regardless of which team its applied to. By the model we did well out of the deal, but the true litmus test will be the contribution by those picks for the respective teams over the next 3 years. For now all we can say is it looks good on paper.

What impressed me watching the video was Peters no nonsense approach. He just kept saying no until he got the deal he was happy with. And I also like the command and confidence he displayed. He knew he'd got a good deal on paper and had arguably out negotiated another very good GM. It bodes well.

I don't know if anyone's done any real science on the value chart. Someone made one up and everyone's just kind of been going by it ever since (the good enough or "seems right" principal).

It wouldn't be easy to regression test either (only track rookie contract? games played? games started? bonuses for superbowl/pro bowls? value for general right of refusal on 2nd contract? how do you account for injuries or performance metrics (or do you bother?))

Just saying, the chart isn't perfect or set in stone.

Teams don't even use the same chart, it's a general guide more than anything