Commanders 2023 Off-Season Thread

https://www.hogshaven.com/2023/2/1/23580941/the-statistical-reality-of-drafting-for-needs-in-the-nfl

Interesting analysis of what we can expect if the Commanders draft in area of need in the rounds and the probability based on historical trends of that pick being a year 1 starter. Focused on OT, Interior O-line, LB and CB

Based on position and 16th pick in 1st round the probability (converted to percent) we get a 1st year starter if we draft a:
OT: 57%
IOL: 75%
LB: 60%
CB: 67%

After first round the odds of finding a first year starter drop dramatically at the areas of need. Perhaps at that point best player regardless of depth, trade backs for more potential picks or even use them to fill needs at FA (with Rivera's track record that might not equal to starters either)

https://www.hogshaven.com/2023/2/1/23580941/the-statistical-reality-of-drafting-for-needs-in-the-nfl

Interesting analysis of what we can expect if the Commanders draft in area of need in the rounds and the probability based on historical trends of that pick being a year 1 starter. Focused on OT, Interior O-line, LB and CB

Based on position and 16th pick in 1st round the probability (converted to percent) we get a 1st year starter if we draft a:
OT: 57%
IOL: 75%
LB: 60%
CB: 67%

After first round the odds of finding a first year starter drop dramatically at the areas of need. Perhaps at that point best player regardless of depth, trade backs for more potential picks or even use them to fill needs at FA (with Rivera's track record that might not equal to starters either)

Not sure if you mean just his FA batting avg or draft as well. But according to us fans, Ron is a draft master.

2020
- drafted rookie DPOY
-drafted a top 5, 15 million per year safety in the 7th round!! woot woot
- drafted a 1k run yards RB in 3rd
- drafted depth DE in 7th

2021
- starting OL in 2nd round
- starting outside corner in 3rd
- one of the best blocking TE in the NFL in the 4th
- Interception safety machine in 5th
- 10 year long snapper in 6th
- not one but two depth DEs in the 7th

2022
- WR1 stud in first round
- Mathis is a ?? mark
- Beast of a running back in 3rd
- Second coming of Tom fucking Brady in the 5th round

I dont think we can bash Ron et al .. while praising all these draft "hits"

If youre a Howellian .. Ron is your Moses

yeah I was referring to FA hit. If we are looking at need and probability of a second rounder being a year 1 starter is less than 50% at our areas I would think a known commodity FA that is already a starter in the league should be greater than 50% hit rate at starting for us the following season and I would prefer to use the second as a BPA.

yeah I was referring to FA hit. If we are looking at need and probability of a second rounder being a year 1 starter is less than 50% at our areas I would think a known commodity FA that is already a starter in the league should be greater than 50% hit rate at starting for us the following season and I would prefer to use the second as a BPA.

I read that Hog haven article yesterday .. I appreciate the work they put in to come up with their own formula

FA has been a mixed bag. I think Scweitzer/Leno/Lucas/Mccain/Thomas/Samuel have been good returns on investment ... those QB and WJ3 miss hurts
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Idk .. I think things would have been different if we just found a functional QB. Now we need a functional QB and some OL replacements

We fans are in limbo until Snyder sells the team. It doesn't matter to me what happens before then.

We fans are in limbo until Snyder sells the team. It doesn't matter to me what happens before then.

Agree, nothing else matters

Not sure if you mean just his FA batting avg or draft as well. But according to us fans, Ron is a draft master.

2020
- drafted rookie DPOY
-drafted a top 5, 15 million per year safety in the 7th round!! woot woot
- drafted a 1k run yards RB in 3rd
- drafted depth DE in 7th

2021
- starting OL in 2nd round
- starting outside corner in 3rd
- one of the best blocking TE in the NFL in the 4th
- Interception safety machine in 5th
- 10 year long snapper in 6th
- not one but two depth DEs in the 7th

2022
- WR1 stud in first round
- Mathis is a ?? mark
- Beast of a running back in 3rd
- Second coming of Tom fucking Brady in the 5th round

I dont think we can bash Ron et al .. while praising all these draft "hits"

If youre a Howellian .. Ron is your Moses


I wouldn’t call depth homeruns. I wouldn’t even call starters homeruns because they might just be starting by default. If FA was better maybe they aren’t starting. And how do we know a guy is a ten year starter in year 3? Lol. That list is a little fugazi.

Harris was officially hired by the Titans on Tuesday, just weeks after NBC Sports Washington reported he'd either be heading to Tennessee as the club's defensive pass game coordinator/cornerbacks coach or to Chicago as the Bears' defensive coordinator.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/commanders/titans-officially-hire-ex-commanders-defensive-backs-coach-chris-harris

Still dont understand how/why RR let this happen .. and no media is touching on whether we could have blocked this.

Its a lateral move .. or does the NFL allow it not to be bc teams create these "assistant head coach" type labels that mean nothing

Was his contract up?

Does RR have an internal policy with his guys that he would never block them if they wanted to interview?

Jags just blocked the Ravens from interviewing their OC.

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I just need a fucking simple explanation and the DC media isnt covering whether we could have blocked or not.

^ Sounds like his title as a pass game coordinator is a step up from DB coach, so RR can't block it.

And maybe he wanted to leave, no sense in blocking someone who wants to move on.

^ Sounds like his title as a pass game coordinator is a step up from DB coach, so RR can't block it.

And maybe he wanted to leave, no sense in blocking someone who wants to move on.

The title sounds a bit better (even if it's the same responsibilities) and I'm sure the salary is at least $1.00 higher, so I'm assuming they can't block it.