WFT's Off-Season Thread [Archive] - Page 95 - Commanders Post at The Warpath

Scalper

04-27-2021, 01:16 PM

Ereck Flowers - G - B Grade

First, what Flowers is: a mauler in the run game. Second, what Flowers isn't: a pass blocker. This despite being drafted #9 at LT. Giants FO absolute imbeciles. He simply, like Scherff, did not have the foot speed and innate quickness to play LT. Whether he could play RT is questionable. He was an absolute turnstile every time placed on edge, and he got absolutely torched so many times playing for Giants it staggers imagination, and I don't even watch that many Giants games (Skins fan baby). He is most likely brought in to play LG.

Flowers has more natural strength and athleticism than Schweitzer, by a long shot. Yet for whatever reason, that hasn't always translated into success. It did the year he played here, however. We really struggled to run the ball last year, especially up the gut against any non-losing team. This is in part because our statistical paper tiger offensive line isn't nearly as good as stats suggest, and had stats padded by beating up on suck ass teams. The first thing this tells you is that our FO is smart enough to realize this, which is good news. Whether this is the optimal fix, who knows, but with mediocrity like Fitz-Average at QB, an absence of strong running game and inability to run up gut will be kiss of death.

There are a few ways you can look at this. Flowers, if you understand what he is and isn't and actually coach and play to his strengths (i.e. competent coaching), is a young, good guard. Not a world beater, but way more than average, and above above average if coached und used properly. He's 27 and already had his birthday this year, so is in his prime. He has generally been healthy. He is probably 50% to 80% of what Scherff is, at half the price. He can Maul like Scherff, Flowers at his best, though is not as consistent or as athletic as Scherff. Like Scherff, Flowers is serviceable when he can get his hands on a pass rusher, but like Scherff if he can't it is over. They are not necessarily comparable players, but are eerily similar in this regard. Flowers is another guy that looked WAY better than he was by playing at big program stacked with talent, in college. Moreover, though the details of trade haven't been released, this appears to be a cap dump trade by Miami, meaning we probably didn't surrender a pick, but rather moved up or down with late round picks. We thus gave up very little or nothing in draft capital, acquired a player with 3 years left in his prime, with our primary cost being money. The Dolphins have very little cap space, and their cap now, with WRs and CBs and a number of good but not great players hogging cap space, is perhaps a warning story of what our cap may look like next year or year after. Flowers would have been 5th or 6th highest paid player on their roster, and he significantly underplayed his contract, this and low leverage of position made dumping his cap a no brainer. Problem is even though the $9M bonus was mostly applied last year, the non-bonus part of contract appears to be guaranteed this year, so we're on the hook for $9M (same amount as bonus not to confused) it looks like, having executed trade, and can't really cut him, as his entire salary looks to be dead cap if we do. After this year we can cut him no cost, or pay him $8M. Not positive on that, but that's what it looks like.

We are not doing too bad cap-wise, with $18M - $22M in cap space before signing rookies, depending whose numbers you believe. Next year we have $50M in cap space, another $6.5M if we cut Collins, $56.5, but probably about $40M if we resign Allen, which I think we will and should. Erring on low side with cap space estimate, don't think we pay Allen $20M a year. We could conceivably pay Scherff $18M a year and still have $20M in cap space next year. Not saying I think we will pay Scherff or should. Bottom line, keeping Scherff and Allen and Flowers is viable next year, with $20M in cap space still, though with no QB being paid. Our cap problems really start the year after and the year after, when we have enough good players end of rookie deals that resigning them all becomes really challenging. Right now basically only our 1st round picks need resigning, because our drafting has sucked so bad. Soon we have 2nd and 3rd round picks, McL, Gibson, etc., that also need new deals, and you ultimately just can't sign them all. Kind of problem you want to have, good teams have, means drafting well, and if you aren't signing 10 FAs a year, you then work comp system and start getting comp picks.

We now have $18M on Scherff, $9M on Flowers, $5M on Schweitz this year, $1M on Martin. That's $33M, or about 17% of our ADJUSTED $199M cap with $15M rollover. That is obviously ridiculous, and too high. One sixth of our salary cap is being spent on G, with no incredibly dominant player except one who is never healthy. We also have Roul at C counting $5M this year, and then $10M next year, $11M year after, $12M year after. Next year if we had Scherff at say $18M, Flowers at $8M, and Roul at $10M that is $36M on center of OL. That's with an expected cap of $192M before rollover, which would be 19% of cap on three interior OL positions. That's a lot, especially with none being elite, except Scherff who should be in the Unbreakable movie sequel. But it is not obscenely untenable.

So what does it mean? What is FO thinking?

1. First of all, that a player that they had no way of knowing would be available, who became available, was a significant upgrade over current players (Schweitz Martin), without surrendering much or any draft capital, because a suckfest team did not know how to manage their cap. You upgrade and add talent via every and any means necessary, you have tons of holes, more than picks, so you can fill one, you do so. Even if at G, and especially with no dead money after this year if you let him walk, and potential comp pick if you do.

2. Brandon Scherff insurance. If he's hurt (when isn't he) or doesn't resign, you have some sort of succession plan at G, and at least one proven player who is more than JAG. Meaning he can't completely hold you hostage.

3. The FO must not love Martin. They have had two chances now to let him start, let Scherff walk, or not sign/trade Flowers, but did not take either.

4. Schweitz can be cut this year for $2M or next year for $1M. If we keep both Flowers Scherff next year, Schweitz toast.

5. One could also interpret this as Charles being viewed more as T, or wanting to spend time developing there with both our starting Ts being average or aging or soon FAs. There is some sense to focusing on developing him at T, RT at worst, and starting him and letting Moses or Lucas walk. You start him at G you never fully develop him at T, a much higher leverage position with much greater talent deficit now after Flowers trade especially.

6. If there is any serious consideration of keeping Scherff, Roull, and Flowers, then you have to address T through draft. There simply will not be enough money for all 3 and big money for FA T, even one of our own, especially if we don't have a rookie QB and have to pay one again next year. The FO cannot know how contract negotiations with Scherff will go, and I think this trade gets made irrespective because no real risk, no massive draft capital, and can cut after this year no dead money. If Flowers blows it up and becomes dominant again this year as he was for us previous, he's good value at $9M the year after, and if not we cut him and have lost nothing. A FO that really needs to focus on LB, S, LT, RT, QB has bigger fish to fry this year so even getting 1-2 years of solid production at half or less what Scherff costs is a win. In the best case scenario, the dream scenario, you draft a franchise LT this year, Flowers plays like 80% of Scherff and the absolute mauler in the run game he has potential to be, at half the cost, and maybe you resign Scherff, keep Flowers, keep Roull, and then start rookie T and Charles at whichever T position they are best suited for. You might then be talking a very dominant OL, starting to approach what DL is. Maybe Flowers wasn't a true first round talent, but he had some elite athletic traits that made him at least a 3rd rounder, and we just got what is essentially a 2nd-day-pick caliber player (at G) for no draft capital. You have to call that a win, but not an A, because we're still paying him a lot, we only have him under contract for 2 years meaning if he blows it up we have to pay him big or let him walk, and could very well re-bust. Or re-re-bust, depending how you view it, LOL.

The bottom line (lame pun possibly unintended or at least subconscious) is that our o-line is not nearly as good as the stats suggest and consistently got owned by better teams. We have to correct this. We can't pick and choose what talented players become available via trades or cuts, but were smart to pounce in this case. The trade has upside, but also cost, though no long-term risk and no mortgaging the future surrendering picks. It thus earns a solid B, especially because if Scherff leaves we have at least one mauler at G remaining. Long term, I still favor building through draft, and not spending piles on lower leverage positions, but we still need 20-25 players (not counting 1 year stopgaps) and have 8 draft picks. Beggars can't be choosers, you have to improve talent anyway you can, such as in this case.

Another final thought is that if we don't draft a QB that becomes franchise, we'll need to sign one next year, barring Heinecke panning out, which we'll of course never get to determine starting Fitz-Average. Quality of OL is a major factor for FA QBs, or even helping development of younger QB.

Anyhoo, bit too long, but this is a solid B grade with significant though not monumental upside, and no long-term risk or mortgaging future. We are much more talented at G today than we were yesterday, and can be MUCH more comfortable not backing up the Brinks truck for Scherff if it comes to that.


	Commanders Post at The Warpath > Commanders Football > Locker Room Main Forum > WFT's Off-Season Thread PDA WFT's Off-Season Thread Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 [95] 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 MTK 04-27-2021, 12:09 PM PFF grades from 2020 Wes Schweitzer: overall 69.0, pass blocking 70.5, run blocking 65.7, 2 penalties, 5 sacks allowed. Ereck Flowers: overall 65.9, pass blocking 73.8, run blocking 58.1, 3 penalties, 5 sacks allowed. Not a huge difference here, should be a good competition if they go that route. If anything our depth just got better. sdskinsfan2001 04-27-2021, 12:10 PM thats why we invested a 3rd in Martin and a 4th in Charles .. and could add an IOL with one of our 2 3rds in a few days .... you dont overpay for Guards in this league .. you draft them cheap Flowers brings nothing special. Hes not flight on his feet, he doesnt kick out into open space like Scherff does, he will get beat from time to time 1 on 1 ... Martin sucks, he will probably be released if this trade goes thru. Charles was drafted to be our LT. And that still might be the case once he's able to compete. But he at least has flexibility. Scherff never should have been franchise tagged a 2nd time, but can't let that dictate the rest of the roster construction when we know he's gone next year. KI Skins Fan 04-27-2021, 12:21 PM It's possible but I doubt it. Flowers plays LG so I don't think we acquired Flowers to replace Scherff. Sweitzer would replace Sherff in his scenario. skinsfaninok 04-27-2021, 12:41 PM It is possible that we could deal BS Thursday in a package to move up.. I doubt it tho Chico23231 04-27-2021, 12:42 PM PFF grades from 2020 Wes Schweitzer: overall 69.0, pass blocking 70.5, run blocking 65.7, 2 penalties, 5 sacks allowed. Ereck Flowers: overall 65.9, pass blocking 73.8, run blocking 58.1, 3 penalties, 5 sacks allowed. Not a huge difference here, should be a good competition if they go that route. If anything our depth just got better. I’m for competition but dang..between both these guys, that’s like 14 million at LG? I can’t imagine Schreff is traded...but since he doesn’t have a long term future with team, why not see if you could grab a first? Monkeydad 04-27-2021, 12:53 PM They are showing his dead cap at 8.75M for us ... https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-football-team/ereck-flowers-16733/ I think hes a Skin this year no matter what Assuming we dont trade Scherff or Wes .. how does RR look Wes in the eyes and tell them they basically just replaced him even though he did everything RR asked of him and played well? RR made comments on how it would be unfair to Reaves to bring in Reid and have Reid start over him when Reaves has been doing what the team has been asking of him. I have to assume Scherff or Wes is on the move. Scherff to the Chiefs Scherff for Bashaud Breeland and a 3rd rounder. Hey...we've been bringing everyone else back...Fuller, Flowers...why not? SunnySide 04-27-2021, 12:54 PM Martin sucks, he will probably be released if this trade goes thru. Charles was drafted to be our LT. And that still might be the case once he's able to compete. But he at least has flexibility. Scherff never should have been franchise tagged a 2nd time, but can't let that dictate the rest of the roster construction when we know he's gone next year. Martin didnt impress and looked over matched physically. When we drafted him,seems we took him a bit early and before other IOL ranked higher than him. I think he goes the way of Christian .. just doesnt work out. But I dont hate taking IOL guys in rounds 3-5. Id take an IOL guy every year in the 3rd to 5th round. Charles - his body screams G. Weight is in the 77th percentile for OL, arm length is 28th %, height is 33%. itd be amazing if he panned out as a solid LT but everything seems to indicate G. I dont know ... Flowers isnt worth the cap money and I dont like seeing even more resources going to a position already over saturated while we are barren at LT. Chico23231 04-27-2021, 12:58 PM Wait....we didn’t get Flowers for him to return to Tackle? Awwwww hell nawwwwww SunnySide 04-27-2021, 12:59 PM I’m for competition but dang..between both these guys, that’s like 14 million at LG? I can’t imagine Schreff is traded...but since he doesn’t have a long term future with team, why not see if you could grab a first? the recent tag and trades: 2020 - Ngakoue was was tagged and traded for a 2R. 2019 - Clowney was tagged and traded for 2 players and a 3R Clark + 3R = 1R, 3r and future 2R ----------------- Seems like a 2R would be great, more likely a 3R and 4R ------------- well see .. maybe this is their way of addressing the piss poor interior run game .. but Flowers isnt really a mauler like Scherff. Hes more like Wes, decent enough but not an impact player Scalper 04-27-2021, 01:16 PM Ereck Flowers - G - B Grade First, what Flowers is: a mauler in the run game. Second, what Flowers isn't: a pass blocker. This despite being drafted #9 at LT. Giants FO absolute imbeciles. He simply, like Scherff, did not have the foot speed and innate quickness to play LT. Whether he could play RT is questionable. He was an absolute turnstile every time placed on edge, and he got absolutely torched so many times playing for Giants it staggers imagination, and I don't even watch that many Giants games (Skins fan baby). He is most likely brought in to play LG. Flowers has more natural strength and athleticism than Schweitzer, by a long shot. Yet for whatever reason, that hasn't always translated into success. It did the year he played here, however. We really struggled to run the ball last year, especially up the gut against any non-losing team. This is in part because our statistical paper tiger offensive line isn't nearly as good as stats suggest, and had stats padded by beating up on suck ass teams. The first thing this tells you is that our FO is smart enough to realize this, which is good news. Whether this is the optimal fix, who knows, but with mediocrity like Fitz-Average at QB, an absence of strong running game and inability to run up gut will be kiss of death. There are a few ways you can look at this. Flowers, if you understand what he is and isn't and actually coach and play to his strengths (i.e. competent coaching), is a young, good guard. Not a world beater, but way more than average, and above above average if coached und used properly. He's 27 and already had his birthday this year, so is in his prime. He has generally been healthy. He is probably 50% to 80% of what Scherff is, at half the price. He can Maul like Scherff, Flowers at his best, though is not as consistent or as athletic as Scherff. Like Scherff, Flowers is serviceable when he can get his hands on a pass rusher, but like Scherff if he can't it is over. They are not necessarily comparable players, but are eerily similar in this regard. Flowers is another guy that looked WAY better than he was by playing at big program stacked with talent, in college. Moreover, though the details of trade haven't been released, this appears to be a cap dump trade by Miami, meaning we probably didn't surrender a pick, but rather moved up or down with late round picks. We thus gave up very little or nothing in draft capital, acquired a player with 3 years left in his prime, with our primary cost being money. The Dolphins have very little cap space, and their cap now, with WRs and CBs and a number of good but not great players hogging cap space, is perhaps a warning story of what our cap may look like next year or year after. Flowers would have been 5th or 6th highest paid player on their roster, and he significantly underplayed his contract, this and low leverage of position made dumping his cap a no brainer. Problem is even though the $9M bonus was mostly applied last year, the non-bonus part of contract appears to be guaranteed this year, so we're on the hook for $9M (same amount as bonus not to confused) it looks like, having executed trade, and can't really cut him, as his entire salary looks to be dead cap if we do. After this year we can cut him no cost, or pay him $8M. Not positive on that, but that's what it looks like. We are not doing too bad cap-wise, with $18M - $22M in cap space before signing rookies, depending whose numbers you believe. Next year we have $50M in cap space, another $6.5M if we cut Collins, $56.5, but probably about $40M if we resign Allen, which I think we will and should. Erring on low side with cap space estimate, don't think we pay Allen $20M a year. We could conceivably pay Scherff $18M a year and still have $20M in cap space next year. Not saying I think we will pay Scherff or should. Bottom line, keeping Scherff and Allen and Flowers is viable next year, with $20M in cap space still, though with no QB being paid. Our cap problems really start the year after and the year after, when we have enough good players end of rookie deals that resigning them all becomes really challenging. Right now basically only our 1st round picks need resigning, because our drafting has sucked so bad. Soon we have 2nd and 3rd round picks, McL, Gibson, etc., that also need new deals, and you ultimately just can't sign them all. Kind of problem you want to have, good teams have, means drafting well, and if you aren't signing 10 FAs a year, you then work comp system and start getting comp picks. We now have $18M on Scherff, $9M on Flowers, $5M on Schweitz this year, $1M on Martin. That's $33M, or about 17% of our ADJUSTED $199M cap with $15M rollover. That is obviously ridiculous, and too high. One sixth of our salary cap is being spent on G, with no incredibly dominant player except one who is never healthy. We also have Roul at C counting $5M this year, and then $10M next year, $11M year after, $12M year after. Next year if we had Scherff at say $18M, Flowers at $8M, and Roul at $10M that is $36M on center of OL. That's with an expected cap of $192M before rollover, which would be 19% of cap on three interior OL positions. That's a lot, especially with none being elite, except Scherff who should be in the Unbreakable movie sequel. But it is not obscenely untenable. So what does it mean? What is FO thinking? 1. First of all, that a player that they had no way of knowing would be available, who became available, was a significant upgrade over current players (Schweitz Martin), without surrendering much or any draft capital, because a suckfest team did not know how to manage their cap. You upgrade and add talent via every and any means necessary, you have tons of holes, more than picks, so you can fill one, you do so. Even if at G, and especially with no dead money after this year if you let him walk, and potential comp pick if you do. 2. Brandon Scherff insurance. If he's hurt (when isn't he) or doesn't resign, you have some sort of succession plan at G, and at least one proven player who is more than JAG. Meaning he can't completely hold you hostage. 3. The FO must not love Martin. They have had two chances now to let him start, let Scherff walk, or not sign/trade Flowers, but did not take either. 4. Schweitz can be cut this year for $2M or next year for $1M. If we keep both Flowers Scherff next year, Schweitz toast. 5. One could also interpret this as Charles being viewed more as T, or wanting to spend time developing there with both our starting Ts being average or aging or soon FAs. There is some sense to focusing on developing him at T, RT at worst, and starting him and letting Moses or Lucas walk. You start him at G you never fully develop him at T, a much higher leverage position with much greater talent deficit now after Flowers trade especially. 6. If there is any serious consideration of keeping Scherff, Roull, and Flowers, then you have to address T through draft. There simply will not be enough money for all 3 and big money for FA T, even one of our own, especially if we don't have a rookie QB and have to pay one again next year. The FO cannot know how contract negotiations with Scherff will go, and I think this trade gets made irrespective because no real risk, no massive draft capital, and can cut after this year no dead money. If Flowers blows it up and becomes dominant again this year as he was for us previous, he's good value at $9M the year after, and if not we cut him and have lost nothing. A FO that really needs to focus on LB, S, LT, RT, QB has bigger fish to fry this year so even getting 1-2 years of solid production at half or less what Scherff costs is a win. In the best case scenario, the dream scenario, you draft a franchise LT this year, Flowers plays like 80% of Scherff and the absolute mauler in the run game he has potential to be, at half the cost, and maybe you resign Scherff, keep Flowers, keep Roull, and then start rookie T and Charles at whichever T position they are best suited for. You might then be talking a very dominant OL, starting to approach what DL is. Maybe Flowers wasn't a true first round talent, but he had some elite athletic traits that made him at least a 3rd rounder, and we just got what is essentially a 2nd-day-pick caliber player (at G) for no draft capital. You have to call that a win, but not an A, because we're still paying him a lot, we only have him under contract for 2 years meaning if he blows it up we have to pay him big or let him walk, and could very well re-bust. Or re-re-bust, depending how you view it, LOL. The bottom line (lame pun possibly unintended or at least subconscious) is that our o-line is not nearly as good as the stats suggest and consistently got owned by better teams. We have to correct this. We can't pick and choose what talented players become available via trades or cuts, but were smart to pounce in this case. The trade has upside, but also cost, though no long-term risk and no mortgaging the future surrendering picks. It thus earns a solid B, especially because if Scherff leaves we have at least one mauler at G remaining. Long term, I still favor building through draft, and not spending piles on lower leverage positions, but we still need 20-25 players (not counting 1 year stopgaps) and have 8 draft picks. Beggars can't be choosers, you have to improve talent anyway you can, such as in this case. Another final thought is that if we don't draft a QB that becomes franchise, we'll need to sign one next year, barring Heinecke panning out, which we'll of course never get to determine starting Fitz-Average. Quality of OL is a major factor for FA QBs, or even helping development of younger QB. Anyhoo, bit too long, but this is a solid B grade with significant though not monumental upside, and no long-term risk or mortgaging future. We are much more talented at G today than we were yesterday, and can be MUCH more comfortable not backing up the Brinks truck for Scherff if it comes to that.