QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020

LT is our best bang for the buck. If Thomas is as good as they say he needs to be our first pick. Our D's main issue isnt player quality it is coaching. You saw it repeatedly yesterday where there was confusion. At the least the coach has to have the players ready for goal line stands.

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LT is our best bang for the buck. If Thomas is as good as they say he needs to be our first pick. Our D's main issue isnt player quality it is coaching. You saw it repeatedly yesterday where there was confusion. At the least the coach has to have the players ready for goal line stands.

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Yeah, the DC coaching is just terrible. In the Red Zone they leave UNCOVERED their best pass catcher: Ertnz. What was that about? That’s football 101 stuff. He should have been doubled teamed!


Earlier in the game the Eagles roasted us with a screen pass to the right. Excellent yardage. What do they do next? Same play and great gain! They ran the screen play to both sides at least 4-5 times and gained at least 6 yards or more every time. Manusky has a minimal ability to make adjustments. I consider Greg Manusky one of the WORST DC’s in the NFL. This defense would raise into the top 50% of the NFL just with a good DC.


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We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.

We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.

The higher the pick the more options you have to use it wisely.

We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.

This is patently and statistically wrong and just against common sense.

The higher the pick, the higher chance that player is a starter and/or pro bowler. Perhaps your argument is 1 1st rounder = 2 2nd rounders = 3 3r? Still, give me the 1st rounder all day, especially if its the skins picking.

The variance? Some teams draft better, some teams develop better, some teams keep the same coaching staff/system so a player drafted 4 years ago still fits the scheme.

Thats why Im not a fan of trading back .. the skins have a better chance of not screwing up.


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“Picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50 percent chance of finding a starter,” According to a study via datascopeanalytics.com, that analyzes 50 years worth of drafting. This is a big dropoff from the first 15 picks which generates starters between 80-90 percent of the time. On the other hand, “going towards the end of the third round, your chance of finding a starter falls to (about) 30 percent.”

The further down you go in rounds, the lower the percentage gets. “The data shows that finding a starter in Round 6 or 7 is only 10–20 percent.”
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2431195-the-hidden-advantage-of-being-a-high-nfl-draft-pick
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86 players in total were named Pro Bowlers. Excluding special teams players that’s 78 Pro Bowl players. How many of them were high draft picks? How many were high profile free agent signees?

2019 Pro Bowl Roster Evaluation

45 Pro Bowlers were first round picks (25 in AFC, 20 in NFC)

4 number one overall picks (Jadaveon Clowney, Eric Fisher, Myles Garrett, Jared Goff)

3 undrafted free agents (Philip Lindsay, Alejandro Villanueva, Adam Thielen) – Lindsay also became the first undrafted rookie

4 of the 6 quarterbacks were first round picks (Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers). The other 2 QBs were Tom Brady (6th) and Drew Brees (2nd)

4 of the 6 running backs were first round picks. All three NFC running backs were first round, top 10 draft picks (Ezekiell Elliot, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley). Two of the three AFC running backs began training camp as a presumed back ups (James Connor and Philip Lindsay). Melvin Gordon was the other first round pick.

There were 8 Wide Receivers selected in total only two (one from each conference) were previous first round picks – DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were both taken in the second round. Keenan Allen (3), Tyreek Hill (5), Antonio Brown (6), and Adam Thielen (undrafted) round out the receivers.

6 of the 8 Cornerbacks selected, were first round picks, and the other 2 were second round picks. First rounders – Patrick Peterson, Byron Jones, Kyle Fuller, Jalen Ramsey, Stephen Gilmore, Denzel Ward. Xavien Howard and Darius Slay were both second rounders.

All 3 AFC Defense Ends (Myles Garrett, Melvin Ingram, JJ Watt) were first round draft picks.

Out of the 8 AFC Offensive Lineman, 6 were first round picks. Out of the 8 NFC Offensive Lineman, 4 were first round picks, 1 second rounder, and three third round picks. Only 1 of the 4 Centers has not left the team that drafted them (Maurkice Pouncey in Pittsburgh)

Only 12 out of the 78 non-special teams players in the Pro Bowl are representing a team that did not draft them (they signed via free agency or were traded)

All 6 Outside Linebackers were first round picks (Von Miller, Jadaveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Khalil Mack, Ryan Kerrigan, Anthony barr)
https://mikedropsports.com/evaluating-nfl-pro-bowlers-and-the-correlation-between-draft/
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From 2000-2007:
1st R - 12.5 make pro bowl
2nd - 5.5
3rd- 2
4th - 2.3
5 - 1.6
6 - 1.5
7 - 0.75
UDFA - 4.1
https://www.battleredblog.com/2011/4/27/2137559/odds-of-getting-a-pro-bowler-by-round-years-2000-2007

Pro Bowl = watered down popularity contest.

This is patently and statistically wrong and just against common sense.

<Lots of stats and math about the entire draft>



Kudos for doing all that hard work, perhaps I should clarify. Top 5 compared to the rest of the first rounders, what's the ratio? I don't care if we pick in the top 5 or top 10, you can still find all-pros anywhere you draft in the first round. This year's MVP and last year's MVP, where were both drafted? (I'll give you a hint, not in the top 5).

If we were one player away from being a consistent playoff team then I would take that player. I think if they get a great offer to move down a few picks then I say trade down. I like more picks to help fill some of these holes. We need a LT, CB, TE or two, WR, S, RB (without knee problems), QB (backup) just to name a few. As much as I would like to have Young, we have a lot of needs we can fill with a great offer/trade down.

Pro Bowl = watered down popularity contest.

I agree for the most part. Making the All-Pro team matters more.

I would trade our top 3 pick and make a team pay dearly.. we get there number one this year.. there 2cnd rnd this year and there number 1 next year !!! I would do that hell yes!!