Why Skins Will/Wont Make the Playoffs this coming Season.

Coming up on camp, rosters are generally set and offense/defense is being installed. On paper, Id say the roster has a nice collection of talent across the board. QB signed long term, we have some coaching continuity, we addressed a lot of holes, years of sticking to the draft team building has seemed to payoff....So how does this come together to make the playoffs? What needs to happen and what could go wrong.

Why the Skins will make the playoffs:

1. We finally have a Running Back/Running attack who can support the offense in the controlling the ball, support the pass game and improve the red zone.

2. We have now versatile D-Line which contribute to pass rush, but most importantly stop the run. Great coach there should have them ready.

3. Paul Richardson/Josh Doctson fill the void left as pass catchers of D Jax/Perrie Garcon. Paul is the deep threat and Doctson becomes a consistent WR...we need this to work in tandem.

4. Red zone improves because of A Smith and Run Game. More TD, less Kicking field goals, simple right? We have proven that to be not true.

Why the Skins will miss the playoffs:

1. Run game does not pan. Guice bust, Thompson hurt and Perine doesn't take next step. Ive said this from the season has ended...we don't run the ball with A Smith, double digit losses. The defense cant be on the field 60-65% of the time.

2. Brandon Schreff play diminishes/injury. Diminish play unlikely...fo sho. Questions at LG, an unproven Center, sad depth.....we need Schreff to be a rock in the middle.

3. We struggle at Corner opposite Josh Norman. We lost a lot of talent at CB...we need someone to step up here.

4. WR core struggles for the second consecutive year. Injuries, Richardson doesn't transition, Doctson busts, crowder continues to disappoint.

What you got? Im not worried as much with Alex Smith...but I (and neither did anyone here) have an issues with Cousins at QB coming in at the QB position the last couple years.

Definitely enough talent on the roster to win 10 games and compete for a wild card, at the very least.

As usual the x factor will be injuries.

I think this has the potential to be a VERY talented team. If that potential is realized, I think this is a playoff team.

The potential, however, is tricky - Smith, Doctson, Guice and Reed. If they live up to what, I believe, they can (for Reed it is a more a matter of being injury free at the right times) dominate on offense. Whatever else Gruden does, he gets guys open. Also, between Alex Smith and Guice, I think the Skins start scoring in the Red Zone. These are guys with a nose for the end zone.

On defense, again, the potential is there. If Allen, Payne, Ionaddis stay uninjured and the depth holds up, I think the interior five (those three plus Foster/Brown) FINALLY clamps down on the opposing run games. If that happens, good things will follow.

We have one of the tougher schedules from what I recall, but I just don't see that as an issue. We also have a tough division, but I think that we can be more than competitive in it.

They are building the right way. I am hopeful that the team can really step up into the double digit win category and begin doing so on a regular basis. I am cautiously optimistic that the team is going through some foundational changes that will let it take the next step to be perennial contenders rather than perennially mediocre with flashes of very good.

My optimism stems from the defensive side of the ball. I think Montae Nicholson is a very, very important player in the making. His speed and athleticism permit our corners to get more aggressive and permits Manusky to mix up his coverage schemes more.

With a healthy Allen and Zach Brown, plus the addition of Payne and Settle, it's a given that teams will find themselves in more 3rd and 6s against us, and fewer 3rd and 2s.

That's where Nicholson's range comes into play. I think we get off the field much more effectively in 2018.

Montae Nicholson is the player in the secondary that it all hinges around - he will make the difference between another iffy defense and a decent one. Pair that up with our inevitably strong offense and I'm more than optimistic that it can all come together.

If I were buying a jersey now, with the thought in mind of who will be the player we're cheering about most in January 2019, it's Montae Nicholson. I love the guy.

If the question is where does the optimism stem from, mine comes from the injuries last season. It was terrible to go through them, but it gave our depth chances to play and our coaches chances to really evaluate second line players. Assuming even a slightly better level of health, we should be able to rotate players in defense without losing a beat.

Also our offense should be very potent, people downplaying AS's accomplishments with various teams are going to see what he can do when he is the guy. We may only get 3-5 years from him, but I believe our offense will run in the top tier each year. I also think Gruden will trust him with a wide open game plan.

That said, I think our greatest obstacle will be Gruden's tendency to play conservative to quickly in games, and his game management skills late in the half and game. But even there having AS to run 2 minute drills and end of half decisions strengthens this team's intangibles.

My optimism comes from having a QB that is dedicated to the team and that without a doubt would go the extra mile to win games.

I'm excited to see the new pieces on the defense, especially the d-line. I think we have a lot of potential on that side of the ball and expect a big leap in improvement.

I just don't see us losing more than 7 games, I think this team is really set up to win those CLOSE games, Alex is a winner, the fact that he has made 6 of 7 playoff appearances in no joke. Guice will keep the Offense on the field more. Payne will help the run D with Allen and M.I coming back. Like Matt said and we all know, It's all on injuries. Week 1 comes and Trent or Alex go down and we are done. Happens for every team 90% of the time too.

Lots to be optimistic about in the upcoming year.

As to the OP's query: If you asked me to bet on whether we make the play-offs or don't make the play-offs, I would bet that we do. However, it would not be a particularly large bet.

Best case 11-5
Worst case 7-9

We're going 14-2 this year. 'nuff said.