The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

I think it will be interesting to see who gets what between Jimmy and Kirk. While you know what you get with Kirk because of the large sample, you also pretty much know he has a ceiling of a good, not great somewhere around the 10th best QB in the NFL. Jimmy from what he shows so far has a very high ceiling. I must admit I have only seen a couple of his 7 games, but he doesn't seem to have the noticeable flaws that the recent flash in the pans like Kap and RG3 did.

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

So the Redskins' course of action is simple. By the end of February, make your last best and final offer. If he signs, or at least finally negotiates with you, then great. If it's still not good enough to get him to sign, mentally consider him gone. Refusal to negotiate upon presentation of a last best and final offer would be a surefire signal that he doesn't want to be a Redskin.

So let him go, and set about using your $55M in cap space to improve this team at several spots.

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

Explain how.

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

And additionally, help me with the timing. How are you ensuring that the situation is resolved before free agency opens?

Remember, you've got to know how much cap space you have to work with when free agency opens, otherwise you can't be active in that first week.

Please don't respond back: I don't know, but some capable front office should.

If you can't war game it out then this discussion isn't worthy of your response.

I think what people here are saying is a sign and trade is a possibility. Is it a slim one? I'd say yes, slim to very slim. But it is possible so therefore it's up for discussion.

But I personally think Cousins has a lot of competition and that may drive down his value. He's got 4 guys that may go the Jets, Browns, Giants and Broncos with those first few picks of the 1st. That's more of a possibility, plus there's free agent competition. All those FA guys are going to come cheaper than Cousins.

Schneed,

You had the right idea in a post a couple of weeks ago. You said the Skins should make him a solid offer now based on how much they can afford and a structure they can live with that would not adversely affect their ability to continue to build a contender. With that, you stated would come deadline for a deal to get done. I think that is the way to go at this point. There would be no offer of any form of tag.

I think that a solid deal on the table with a deadline might give the Redskins some leverage, although only Kirk and his agent could determine how much. In any event, it might get substantive talks started. If not, we'll know that Kirk doesn't want to be here.

Regardless of what happens once the offer is made and the deadline is established, the Skins can move forward with the urgent business of team building once Kirk signs or the deadline expires. The deadline must be firm for this strategy to work.

From my personal point of view, this strategy works whether or not Kirk signs a LTD because the Skins will now be able to proceed with either Plan A or Plan B. I don't much care which way it goes. With Plan A, we have our QB. With Plan B, we save up to $34M in cap space and we get a 3rd round compensatory pick. I'm good either way.

p.s. I see that you reposted your position while I was typing this post. Good.

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

I was under the impression that we couldn't get anything for Cousins, whether if he outright walks or if the 'skins slapped the transition tag on him.

"The snag with the transition tag is that, while Washington has the option to match any offer sheet Cousins receives from other teams, the team would not get any compensation if it declines to match and Cousins leaves."
If redskins don't sign Kirk Cousins to LTD, would Transition Tag be in play? (http://www.nbcsports.com/washington/washington-redskins/if-redskins-dont-sign-kirk-cousins-multi-year-deal-transition-tag-could-be-his)