TSN Preseason Support Group-Redskins

At this point of the year in recent years who around the NFL knew:
-Ricky Williams would retire
-Michael Vick would break his leg
-What rookies would be in camp and who would still be holding out
-What veterans would be holding out well into the season
-How teams respond to new coaches/systems or new players fit in to existing systems
Just a few reasons why it's absurd to try to predict records until after training camp, too much can happen in the pre-season to alter a teams fortunes.

(1) Guys like Ricky Williams (age/caliber) retire once every 15 years.
(2) Guys like Mike Vick can get injured at any point in the season - such injuries don't go away once the preseason ends (in fact they occur 10 times more often in the regular season).
(3) Of our rookies, only Rogers will have an impact this year and unlike many other teams, we likely won't use him a lot until well after the season has started (Williams has been known for not introducing rookie CBs into the starting lineup early in a season).
(4) It takes more than camp for new players to get used to new coaches/systems and so I guess we shouldn't make predictions until midway through the season since new players won't get adjusted to Gibbs and his system until about Week 10.

What exactly do camps and the preseason show us? I didn't hear many people on this board or elsewhere saying after camps and the pre-season last year..."Well, we're going 6-10 and Gibbs just hasn't got this offense thing down."

INSTEAD, all I heard was "It's only camp.....It's only the preseason.....It's only week 3....etc (you get the point)." So while many people here are saying it's way too early to make any predictions before camp or the pre-season, those very same people will disregard whatever happens in camp or the pre-season as just camp or the pre-season. And for good reason.

Camp and the pre-season are more about finding depth and getting a team's engine started. They RARELY reveal how a team will fare in the regular season. Most starters only play 1-3 series in Weeks 1, 2, and 4 of the preseason. Moreover, many of the starters are held out during even those few pre-season series due to minor injury concerns. If you think you can gleam something out of a dozen series where the playbook is dumbed down (so as not to reveal too much) and the regular starters are out of 85% of the snaps, then you've got a keener football eye than I do.

So, when exactly is it Kosher to make any predictions? It only makes sense to reserve judgment about how our team will fare in 2005 if you honestly think that camp or the pre-season will reveal something significant about our team's playbook and starters. For me, they don't.

I'm really begining to hate sports writers, and the like. Steelers? last year? Chiefs last year? Chargers?

These writers suck.

The only prediction I would spend anytime listenting too or giving any credibility too is one by St. Joe, Gregg Williams, and maybe Vinnie, anybody else trying to give a detailed, crystal ball prediction and is full of it.

The only benefit of the doubt I give them is that being that they are writers, they HAVE to go with what they see on paper. People won't take too much stock in someone saying, "Well, I just have this gut feeling THIS team will do this and THAT team will do that." If writers did that, everyone on this site would be published in major newspapers across the country.

Granted 5-11 is a little crazy for me to think about right now, BUT I'll give them that benefit.

I think I'm kinda in the middle on this one. The one fatal flaw in the argument that we all know now who our starters will be, therefore it's not too early to make predictions, is that we don't know the other 13 teams we play this year as well. We have to remember that there are two teams to every game. So while we may "know" who our QB, WR, RB, etc, etc, are going to be, who here knows that same information about the Raiders, Cheifs, Bears, etc, etc.?

Now, the reason I'm in the middle is because I don't mind US throwing around predictions and looking to the schedule to guess our wins and losses. After all, what else do we have to do right now? But sports writers making predictions seems a bit rediculous this early. The main reason: it would take entirely too much effort for any writer to do an adequate amount of research into each and every team to make a valid prediction. Why? Because they would have to know every team in the NFL as well as we know the Redskins situation, sit down and disect each and every game from every week, match strengths against strenths and weaknesses against weaknesses and try to make predictions based on each individual matchup. It's not enough to look at a team's roster and say "you know, I don't think they look much better than last year, and last year they were 5-11, so I'm going with 5-11 again." Rather, a responsible sports writer would have to disect the status of each team, recognize the question marks remaining between now and the June 1st cuts, and then predict each game in the entire NFL schedule to come up with a final record. Until I see any expert's rundown of exactly which games they see us losing and which they see us winning and why, I don't put any stock in their predictions. Those are the types of things we see on this site when we talk about the skins, but I don't see such a thorough analysis from any so-called "experts" when they thow out "5-11". Furthermore, another reason any predictions are useless right now is that the real potential for injuries hasn't even started. If Peyton Manning tears an ACL in a preseason game, then anybody's May predictions are crap. Not only would it effect the record prediction for the Colts, but it would also effect the prediction for any team that plays the Colts.

Again, I don't mind us throwing stuff around because that's what these sites are for, but sports writers and "experts"? Come on, there are just WAY too many variables between now and the start of the season to even bother. It's like the mock drafts that come out the day after the super bowl when all the picks are set and then subsequently change 150 times before draft day.

Exactly. Hence the reason I say they are ONLY going on what they see on paper, which is WAY too presumptuous.

I don't care what anybody says, Gibbs will not have a worse record in his second year. It just won't happen. He will do whatever it takes to win.

Last year, the writers gave the Redskins higher rankings based upon Gibbs HOF reputation. So do they write that off and think that he hasn't learned anything after a season of experience in today's NFL? Yeah, right. The situation last year did not provide the appropriate time to make the changes he needed to make to the offense. Now he will have had a full offseason to do that. The WR's arguably aren't any better? If that truely is the case, so what! Teams like the Patriots and Eagles have had plenty of success without a premiere WR (Philly did make it to the NFC championship 3 times without TO). Plus especially in close games, one play can make the difference. How many games were there last season that were lost to a BS play or call? At least two come to mind right away (the non-illegal motion vs. GB and the should-have-been offensive pass interference vs. Dallas). That would have put us at 8-8 and, considering how sorry the NFC was, in the playoff hunt. My point being that luck (or "the ball bouncing your way") has a lot to do with it, and as much homework someone does prior to making predictions, they still won't get it right a lot of the time.
And who cares if it is too early? This site is here to talk about the Redskins whether there is new news or not, and that's just what we're doing...

I'm glad I have another person pointing out that luck is something the Skins are in dire need of. Too bad you can't buy it or draft it.

Good thing is, we should hopefully be able to blow out teams so bad that one play or two will be of no consequence.

I think I'm kinda in the middle on this one. The one fatal flaw in the argument that we all know now who our starters will be, therefore it's not too early to make predictions, is that we don't know the other 13 teams we play this year as well. We have to remember that there are two teams to every game. So while we may "know" who our QB, WR, RB, etc, etc, are going to be, who here knows that same information about the Raiders, Cheifs, Bears, etc, etc.?

Now, the reason I'm in the middle is because I don't mind US throwing around predictions and looking to the schedule to guess our wins and losses. After all, what else do we have to do right now? But sports writers making predictions seems a bit rediculous this early. The main reason: it would take entirely too much effort for any writer to do an adequate amount of research into each and every team to make a valid prediction. Why? Because they would have to know every team in the NFL as well as we know the Redskins situation, sit down and disect each and every game from every week, match strengths against strenths and weaknesses against weaknesses and try to make predictions based on each individual matchup. It's not enough to look at a team's roster and say "you know, I don't think they look much better than last year, and last year they were 5-11, so I'm going with 5-11 again." Rather, a responsible sports writer would have to disect the status of each team, recognize the question marks remaining between now and the June 1st cuts, and then predict each game in the entire NFL schedule to come up with a final record. Until I see any expert's rundown of exactly which games they see us losing and which they see us winning and why, I don't put any stock in their predictions. Those are the types of things we see on this site when we talk about the skins, but I don't see such a thorough analysis from any so-called "experts" when they thow out "5-11". Furthermore, another reason any predictions are useless right now is that the real potential for injuries hasn't even started. If Peyton Manning tears an ACL in a preseason game, then anybody's May predictions are crap. Not only would it effect the record prediction for the Colts, but it would also effect the prediction for any team that plays the Colts.

Again, I don't mind us throwing stuff around because that's what these sites are for, but sports writers and "experts"? Come on, there are just WAY too many variables between now and the start of the season to even bother. It's like the mock drafts that come out the day after the super bowl when all the picks are set and then subsequently change 150 times before draft day.

Very, very good post PSU (I've just added a reputation point for you). I'm willing to admit it when I'm wrong and didn't consider everything. There are a lot of variables left to be decided (principally, in my mind at least, what other teams will be like). I didn't even consider (duh), that the Eagles might be different without TO (if he holds out), that Manning might falter or excel more than expected, or that Bledsoe could look like he did with the Bills in 03 (awesome) or crappy.

I also agree while its crazy for a reputable sports writer to make a solid prediction at this point, it's also fair game for us.

Pat yourself on the back because you just managed to change my mind (and maybe someone else's). :biggthump

Very, very good post PSU (I've just added a reputation point for you). I'm willing to admit it when I'm wrong and didn't consider everything. There are a lot of variables left to be decided (principally, in my mind at least, what other teams will be like). I didn't even consider (duh), that the Eagles might be different without TO (if he holds out), that Manning might falter or excel more than expected, or that Bledsoe could look like he did with the Bills in 03 (awesome) or crappy.

I also agree while its crazy for a reputable sports writer to make a solid prediction at this point, it's also fair game for us.

Pat yourself on the back because you just managed to change my mind (and maybe someone else's). :biggthump

:headbange
Thanks RF, glad I could contribute.

Very, very good post PSU (I've just added a reputation point for you). I'm willing to admit it when I'm wrong and didn't consider everything. There are a lot of variables left to be decided (principally, in my mind at least, what other teams will be like). I didn't even consider (duh), that the Eagles might be different without TO (if he holds out), that Manning might falter or excel more than expected, or that Bledsoe could look like he did with the Bills in 03 (awesome) or crappy.

I also agree while its crazy for a reputable sports writer to make a solid prediction at this point, it's also fair game for us.

Pat yourself on the back because you just managed to change my mind (and maybe someone else's). :biggthump


i agree with you ramseyfan, PSU made some very good points. i will still have to respectfully disagree with you when you say our starters are pretty much set. i think certain players are gonna start just like you do but i'm not gonna make predictions until i'm positive and until i've seen the skins play in pre-season. the best time to make a prediction, as to the skins record, will be after game 3 of the pre-season.
to make it clear, i'm not against you or anybody else making predictions at this time or any other time. i just feel it's best to wait until, at least, pre-season.