PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Another advanced metric article from Football Outsiders for those football nerds out there.

This metric breaksdown incomplete passes into categories:

"Overthrows & Underthrows
While it's true that a receiver can always adjust to and catch a poorly thrown ball (for evidence of this, watch any Terry Bradshaw highlight reel), that is not the norm in the NFL. Everything tabulated here for overthrown and underthrown passes relates only to incompletions. We combine the two totals together to calculate a "Bad Pass" percentage."

Quarterback Passes Overthrown Pct. Rk Underthrown Pct. Rk Bad Throw Pct. Rk

Drew Brees 653 44 6.7% 2 25 3.8% 3 69 10.6% 1
Robert Griffin 214 14 6.5% 1 12 5.6% 20 26 12.1% 2
Matt Ryan 623 63 10.1% 7 27 4.3% 8 90 14.4% 3
Ryan Tannehill 589 70 11.9% 18 16 2.7% 1 86 14.6% 4
Ryan Fitzpatrick 311 30 9.6% 6 16 5.1% 15 46 14.8% 5
Tony Romo 434 48 11.1% 11 17 3.9% 5 65 15.0% 6
Jay Cutler 561 53 9.4% 5 32 5.7% 21 85 15.2% 7
Alex Smith 464 36 7.8% 3 35 7.5% 31 71 15.3% 8
Andrew Luck 616 73 11.9% 16 24 3.9% 4 97 15.7% 9
Aaron Rodgers 520 47 9.0% 4 36 6.9% 28 83 16.0% 10
Philip Rivers 569 63 11.1% 12 28 4.9% 13 91 16.0% 11
Ben Roethlisberger 599 62 10.4% 8 35 5.8% 23 97 16.2% 12
Derek Carr 593 65 11.0% 9 32 5.4% 18 97 16.4% 13
Teddy Bridgewater 397 55 13.9% 30 11 2.8% 2 66 16.6% 14
Russell Wilson 451 54 12.0% 19 21 4.7% 10 75 16.6% 15
Eli Manning 600 71 11.8% 15 31 5.2% 16 102 17.0% 16
Andy Dalton 481 64 13.3% 27 20 4.2% 7 84 17.5% 17
Geno Smith 366 47 12.8% 23 18 4.9% 12 65 17.8% 18
Quarterback Passes Overthrown Pct. Rk Underthrown Pct. Rk Bad Throw Pct. Rk
Mike Glennon 202 24 11.9% 17 13 6.4% 25 37 18.3% 19
Shaun Hill 229 30 13.1% 25 12 5.2% 17 42 18.3% 20
Tom Brady 582 64 11.0% 10 43 7.4% 30 107 18.4% 21
Mark Sanchez 309 42 13.6% 28 15 4.9% 11 57 18.4% 22
Peyton Manning 595 76 12.8% 22 35 5.9% 24 111 18.7% 23
Carson Palmer 224 29 12.9% 24 13 5.8% 22 42 18.8% 24
Austin Davis 282 39 13.8% 29 14 5.0% 14 53 18.8% 25
Kyle Orton 445 50 11.2% 13 36 8.1% 33 86 19.3% 26
Joe Flacco 548 72 13.1% 26 36 6.6% 27 108 19.7% 27
Matthew Stafford 599 74 12.4% 21 46 7.7% 32 120 20.0% 28
Josh McCown 323 48 14.9% 33 18 5.6% 19 66 20.4% 29
Drew Stanton 240 29 12.1% 20 21 8.8% 34 50 20.8% 30
Nick Foles 310 45 14.5% 31 20 6.5% 26 65 21.0% 31
Cam Newton 446 76 17.0% 36 18 4.0% 6 94 21.1% 32
Colin Kaepernick 478 80 16.7% 35 22 4.6% 9 102 21.3% 33
Blake Bortles 474 69 14.6% 32 33 7.0% 29 102 21.5% 34
Kirk Cousins 204 24 11.8% 14 21 10.3% 36 45 22.1% 35
Brian Hoyer 437 65 14.9% 34 42 9.6% 35 107 24.5% 36
NFL AVG - - 12.2% - - 5.8% - - 18.0% -

Their take on Griffin's # of 'bad passes'
Robert Griffin did not seem to make many good plays last season, but throwing accurate passes was not his problem. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and completed 68.7 percent of his passes. The problems were that a third of his completions were unsuccessful plays, and he struggled with sacks and turnovers behind a bad offensive line.

Their take on Cousins # of 'bad passes'
Playing in an offense similar to Griffin's in his rookie year, Brian Hoyer had the highest Bad Throw rate at 24.5 percent. He was really the anti-Brees: third-worst in overthrow rate, second-worst in underthrow rate. His reliance on deception to generate big plays was exposed as the season wore on and film and injuries accumulated. Kirk Cousins was next in line in Washington thanks to his league-high rate of underthrown passes. Guess it's pretty hard to overthrow DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Note that Griffin had the lowest rate of overthrown passes and Colt McCoy (not featured) similarly had a 6.3 percent overthrow rate.

Interesting for sure.
I am TOTALLY behind the metric measurement system if it means Robert will be successful...
If not, it's ridiculous unfounded nonsense for idiots.
HTTR

KC pushes the ball downfield. Griffin doesn't throw anything over 8 yards. It's hard to overthrow such short passes.This means very little to me.

Pushing the ball down the field doesn't do much good if you're not accurate or always throwing it to the other team.

KC pushes the ball downfield. Griffin doesn't throw anything over 8 yards. It's hard to overthrow such short passes.This means very little to me.

Griffins problem is holding onto the ball to long or bailing out of the pocket when he should have stuck in the pocket, creating a sack when one wasnt immediately there. When he actually releases the ball, it can go just about any distance. He has had plenty of long throws, including some overthrows of Desean on long passes (which is not easy to do). To say that he doesnt throw past 8 yards is like saying that Cousins makes Joe Montana and Tom Brady look like bad QB's, its just a false statement.

KC pushes the ball downfield. Griffin doesn't throw anything over 8 yards. It's hard to overthrow such short passes.This means very little to me.

The only starting QBs that averaged more yards per attempt than Griffin(according to ESPN) were Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kirk Cousins did too, but it's not a big margin: 8.38 to Griffin's 7.92.

I'm not making it a Griffin vs KC debate. I can see with my own eyes that when Griffin is in there we have an extremely conservative offense cause of his limitations in the drop back game. KC was asked to do a lot more and more was put on him in the passing game. He hit a lot of big plays and also had a few terrible quarters of football. Both were benched, both have their issues and need to get better. Hopefully one will pull away from the other and squash the QB controversy. I really don't care who wins the job, just tired of sub par QB play.

Interesting for sure.
I am TOTALLY behind the metric measurement system if it means Robert will be successful...
If not, it's ridiculous unfounded nonsense for idiots.
HTTR

Post of the day👍👍👍👊

I'm not making it a Griffin vs KC debate. I can see with my own eyes that when Griffin is in there we have an extremely conservative offense cause of his limitations in the drop back game. KC was asked to do a lot more and more was put on him in the passing game. He hit a lot of big plays and also had a few terrible quarters of football. Both were benched, both have their issues and need to get better. Hopefully one will pull away from the other and squash the QB controversy. I really don't care who wins the job, just tired of sub par QB play.

I dont think any one else was making this out to be Griffin vs Cousins. We are countering your claim that Griffin wont throw beyond 8 yards downfield. He has thrown plenty of long balls.

Agree w Hog1, statistics can "prove" anything.. But that doesn't stop discussions in a long offseason.

We've improved on paper with (1) pass blocking (Sherff, ?Long, ?MJones pass blocking), (2) ?better defense (?closer games, less passing situations / less pass rush). (3) ?better ST play (?better field position).


If the above changes translate to the field, Griffin should be more comfortable / more time to make good decisions. He had good accuracy in 2012, and maybe these stats confirm (?) that he still has that potential. We all knew Griffin needed several years to develop, but we never gave him good protection like Wilson. I'm willing to hope Griffin makes a comeback this year...