Ukraine mega thread

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 3

(Note an interesting bit is this part ".....Those indications also suggest, however, that the Russian General Staff has concluded that the forces it initially concentrated for the invasion of Ukraine will be insufficient to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.")

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3

Downer of an article but probably spot on.
"........War can produce breathtaking heroism and heartbreaking solidarity. But it primarily generates waste and suffering. Vladimir Putin has committed a grave crime against the entire world. The near certainty that he will lose this war is cold comfort, given the probability that everyone else will too."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-war-in-ukraine-looks-unwinnable-for-everyone/ar-AAUvZKl

Downer of an article but probably spot on.
"........War can produce breathtaking heroism and heartbreaking solidarity. But it primarily generates waste and suffering. Vladimir Putin has committed a grave crime against the entire world. The near certainty that he will lose this war is cold comfort, given the probability that everyone else will too."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-war-in-ukraine-looks-unwinnable-for-everyone/ar-AAUvZKl

Another good article. Big picture.

No "good" alternatives.

Keep the good articles coming nonniery. please.

Alotta the early news and social media info is pro Ukraine and it’s true the Russians struggled at first. But the Russian are changing up strategies and they called in the Chechens. It’s gonna get a lot more brutal. Sieges ala Aleppo a couple years ago is gonna be bad.

Will Ukraine move to insurgency?

We will see, but Russia is still in the drivers seat IMO.

Alotta the early news and social media info is pro Ukraine and it’s true the Russians struggled at first. But the Russian are changing up strategies and they called in the Chechens. It’s gonna get a lot more brutal. Sieges ala Aleppo a couple years ago is gonna be bad.

Will Ukraine move to insurgency?

We will see, but Russia is still in the drivers seat IMO.

Yeah .. its going to get bad. Russia is going to have to flatten Ukraine to win .. and Putin is going to win, despite losing everything.
Seems like Russia tried to march in thinking Ukraine would capitulate, itd be quick, theyd put on a huge PR blitz, ride out sanctions like when they took Crimea and the world eventually moved on.

The world is not moving on from this.

I hope President Zelensky is still alive when I hop back on here on monday.

Worst case scenario -- Putin doesnt win?

Yeah .. its going to get bad. Russia is going to have to flatten Ukraine to win .. and Putin is going to win, despite losing everything.
Seems like Russia tried to march in thinking Ukraine would capitulate, itd be quick, theyd put on a huge PR blitz, ride out sanctions like when they took Crimea and the world eventually moved on.

The world is not moving on from this.

I hope President Zelensky is still alive when I hop back on here on monday.

Worst case scenario -- Putin doesnt win?

Its like every scenario is the worst case scenario. All tied for last. All because Putin wants to live in 1990.

Ukraine has been defensive trying to hold territory ..as it should…but at this point they need to try a counteroffensive

Ukraine has been defensive trying to hold territory ..as it should…but at this point they need to try a counteroffensive

Capabilities they probably lack. The Russian army outnumbers them, has more airpower and better strategic positioning (They partially surround Ukraine). I'd love it if Ukraine could mount a counter-offensive but just doubt they can. They have been able to conduct counter attacks which is why the Russians were not able to use Hostelmel Airport as an air bridge.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-past-week/YLJBUVAIHNV53O3G34BWWCNEIY/?c_id=2&objectid=12508870&ref=rss

How about a round of applause for these FSB double agents who are helping protect Zelensky from these attempts on his life?

4 March Assessment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-initial-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment