Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

Clayton's opinion isn't random. But whatever, this isn't a thread about Clayton

Don't get me wrong, I think that RGIII is dynamite and I would love to get him. But I think these factors may make him fall to #6:

1) Footwork/mechanics concerns
2) Durability concerns moving to the next level
3) There are real studs at other positions and teams may prefer to have the best player at position X rather than the second best QB
4) The trade-up price for QB hungry teams below us will be very steep, perhaps too steep to leapfrog us

Really hard to argue with these. It seems highly improbable at this exact moment but RGIII could fall to six. Stranger things have happened on many drafts.

Clayton's opinion isn't random. But whatever, this isn't a thread about Clayton

I'd rather talk about Clayton at this point than quarterbacks. :laughing-

You can go back to ES any day now. Thanks in advance.

Ouch!?

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".I wonder why actuaries use life tables. ;)

I gathered he didn't just sit around in some office scanning forums/twitter/fax/email/phone for news alerts. If he's that knowledgeable, why don't they use him as a analyst?


SO why is I've heard that NFL scouts say that guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay don't know shit?

Nobody said that folks like Clayton know everything. If people like him did, they'd be GM's, not TV reporters.

But, on the other hand, they still put out a lot of effort, so just dismissing them is as disrespectful as it is foolish.

And economics dictate that there can only be so many analysts and so many reporters.

Not waisting more then 1 draft pick on said player would put the big smile on my face if we could land one of these, but it's doubtfull. So trading back, continueing with last years fabulous draft by trading back to aquire more picks in order to not only get valuable pieces but to help build up our back up pool.

Stock piling draft picks while not a bad idea, still won't cure the Redskins most pressing need. Quarterback is the most pressing need. I disagree that it's doubtful that the Redskins can get Luck or RG3. I will admit, Luck may be out of reach. But Rg3 isn't. For one Mike Shanahan and Rams coach Jeff Fisher go back to their days with the 49ers. So, they know each other well. If Mike Shanahan is offering the Redskins 6th pick in the draft in addition to a Redskins 1st round selection in 2013, then they can agree to a trade in order for Washington to move up to 2nd in the draft. The Rams can more than likely still come away with Justin Blackmon or Matt Khali at the 6th pick. And in exchange, the Redskins can come away with RG3 with the second pick.

Back in 2004, the Giants offered San Diego a boat load of draft selections to land Eli Manning. After leading the Giants to two super Bowls, I'd say that decision to trade up was a good one for the G-men.

I think Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan know that they have quite a problem at quarterback. Both of them are great football men. I'm sure they know what important moves they must make in order to better the Redskins.

Nobody said that folks like Clayton know everything. If people like him did, they'd be GM's, not TV reporters.

But, on the other hand, they still put out a lot of effort, so just dismissing them is as disrespectful as it is foolish.

I said it more or less being a smart ass since kid has been riding my balls this whole thread. Had I known the Clayton E-knight crew was going to rush in to save the day, I would have kept my mouth shut...lol

RGIII, If I knew manning was 100% it'd be different, but I've never heard so much FUD in my life.

As for the 30gut thing earlier, I made an attempt to explain to him how he was completely misusing a statistic,You made a horrible failed attempt to make a strawman argument.

Its not misuse to quote a well known stat.

However its kinda bad form to make false assumptions and claims then turn around and claim that your false assumptions represent my point.

I don't understand how you can get this:
The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

From this:

With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.

Without thinking that people will view your posts as somewhat disingenuous.