Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

why would manning even want to come here? i don't see him coming here. i could see him ending up on some team that no one woul even imagine like the raiders.

and as for rg3 if he falls to 6 i'd love to see us take him, otherwise fall back and stock up. i think the worst thing shanny can do is make a move that gives up draft picks. if this franchise has changed for real there needs to be patience. i dont think that shanny is sold on rg3, and if he isn't 100% he can't afford to set this team back anymore. i say take a qb in the 2nd and another one later on. i know i'm in the minority but i am totally fine with having another building year. this team has been run into the ground the past decade with draft picks treated like garbage. this past year was a great draft and i would love to see another just llike it. let's be realistic and build this team the right way, you never know what can on the feild during game time. as much as i hate it when people brag about it we did beat the giants this year and the packers last year. it doesn;t mean we were a very good team but it does mean we can wina few tough games while we build the team for the future. httr!

The day that every football fan realizes that draft picks are just another currency like the dollar or euro will be a decent day for me, barring tragic events. And of course, using them wisely also matters.

Vinny (and Joe Gibbs) treated it like it was monopoly money. :frusty:


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You're quite clear about your stance. You are willing to blow the future of a good football team for a mere chance of having a QB, even if the odds are 40% of hitting the mark. I on the other hand am not. Not at this time. Get back to me when we shore up a few holes and add some more depth.

I refer to my previous statement.

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Ah, conditional probability. How I did not expect to see you here. (nerd moment)

With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

When you calculate all those other players (that would be used to get RGIII) along with Peyton, it's a no brainer for me. Now if our team were a bit more solid, I would have no issues with giving up the picks if I thought he was that guy.

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.It's a good question, but it's probably early to ask it because the draft is a considerable distance away, and Manning's availability for the Redskins is nothing more than a rumor at this point.

If Manning is released by the Colts on March 7 and signs with the Colts for two years/$25 million (backloaded - $18 mil in year two) the next day, then he was never planning on leaving Indy to begin with. Then we're targeting someone else who (probably) doesn't adequately solve the need to draft a quarterback.

Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

There's a reason some organizations draft better than others. It's because you're not throwing names into a hat and you have an x percent chance that it wil turn out to be a good player.

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.