What is Matt Flynn Worth to the Redskins

RGIII is a game changer plus he brings excitement back to DC.

I believe he is to. If we could look back with hindsight and say that Matt Flynn is to the Redskins what Trent Green was to the Chiefs then I would say it was all worth it.

I still would strongly prefer RGIII though even with the cost of picks to move up to acquire him.

I hope Kiper is right.

Gotcha.

I just don't see how first rounders are any sort of guarantee.

There are plenty of notable busts that show otherwise.

Mattyk, you're absolutely right. The Tim Couches, Ryan Leafs, Joey Harringtons and David Carrs, Matt Leinart, and maybe Vince Young to name a few have busted big time. But then there are others like Peyton Manning, Rex Grossman, Trent Dilfer, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers with each of these former 1st round selected QBs making it to the Super Bowl since 2004.

All QBs don't succeed and all of them don't bust either.

And here we are again, with two former 1st overall selections with Eli Manning and Alex Smith about to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and there's a good chance Joe Flacco, another first round selection possibly making it to the Super Bowl also.

All I'm saying is from the 2004 season to the 2011 season(8 seasons), there will be a first round draft pick quarterback playing in the Super Bowl. Success comes from drafting a quarterback in the first round.

Time to get testy.

You cannot argue with data; you are absolutely correct.

Here is some more data you cannot argue with. Here are first round QB picks over the last decade or so who have been "less than satisfactory":

Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Duante Culpepper (injury ended his career early)
Cade McNown
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey (fondly remembered around here...)
Byron Leftwich (not horrible but not great either)
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman (you already have a first round pick in town; why worry about getting another one)
JP Losman
Jason Campbell (Skins ditched that first round pick...)
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn


Here's another list. You can find data to support any argument. These are 1st Round QBs from the last decade or so who have been more than satisfactory.

Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers
Mike Vick
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Donovan McNabb
Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Carson Palmer
Chad Pennington
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Joe Flacco
Josh Freeman


And then if we need even more data. We can go back a bit further and find some more stellar 1st Round QBs.

John Elway
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Otto Graham
Terry Bradshaw
Doug Williams
Troy Aikman
Drew Bledsoe
Jim Kelly
Jim Plunkett
Joe Namath
Len Dawson
Phil Simms
Roman Gabriel
John Brodie
Bob Griese
Earl Morrall
Bert Jones
YA Tittle
Archie Manning

Don't you love lists?

Re: The "list war" on this page.

The 1st round QB is a dangerous minefield, but it's a relatively safer minefield than other "fields" such as FA or trade. The difference between success or bust with a first round QB comes down to scouting and evaluating the mental makeup of the prospect.

Re: The "list war" on this page.

The 1st round QB is a dangerous minefield, but it's a relatively safer minefield than other "fields" such as FA or trade. The difference between success or bust with a first round QB comes down to scouting and evaluating the mental makeup of the prospect.

I don't think most are opposed to taking a QB in the first round. It's the part about giving up 4 or more picks to move up that causes anxiety. Seems to be about a 50/50 proposition on picking the right guy.

My point was and remains that if Flynn is successful in this offense its gonna because of his physical skillset not because the schemes are 'very similar'.
Which was a point being made here:

Valuing schematic familiarity over skillset.

Here's what I said then in response to the above quote:

I was pointing out that I don't fall in love with a guy's "gifts", such as Jeff George's arm or Kyle Boller's ability to throw a football 60 yards in the air from his knees. I also pointed out that Rivers throws like a girl and Brady looked like a dufus at the combine. Had nothing to do with putting more value on scheme.

Just a couple of thoughts:

Joe Montana - 4 Super Bowl rings: 3rd round draft pick, 82nd overall pick.
Tom Brady - 3 Super Bowl rings (and can possibly add a fourth) 6th round pick, #199.
Roger Staubach - 2 Super Bowl rings - 10th round draft pick
Bart Starr - 2 Super Bowl Rings - 17th round draft pick
Brett Favre - 1 Super Bowl Ring - 2nd Round pick
Joe Theismann - 1 Super Bowl Ring - 4th Round Pick

Of the six I mentioned, four have multiple Super Bowl rings. All have had multiple Super Bowl appearances. Of the ten multiple super bowl winning quarterbacks, four of them are not 1st round picks. And out of the four quarterbacks with the most super bowl wins (3 or more), two are on this list, the other two are first rounders.

Just another tidbit, of the three quarterbacks to have played in multiple Super Bowls and lose them all, two of them are first round picks (Jim Kelly and Craig Morton.)

While no doubt quarterbacks who are first round picks for the most part are first round picks because they're pretty doggone good. But, I think there are many aspects to a quarterback being developed into that great Championship quarterback other than just them being highly recognized coming out of college.

I think a lot also depends upon how much work that quarterback puts into making himself better after he turns pro - no matter if he's a first or a 7th round pick. So, I completely believe that there are quarterbacks that aren't highly regarded coming out of college, but can obviously work hard and move themselves into an elite status. And, it also has a lot to do with who those coaches are that is present during that development stage. I think it could come down to simply having the right coaches there and the guy who's willing to put 110% into improving himself. SO, I don't know if I would say you're virtually guaranteed a great quarterback in the first round.

Good read, good post.

Question, how many teams traded up for there 1st round QB or did the QB fall to them at their pick.

I was pointing out that I don't fall in love with a guy's "gifts"I get the feeling you have no recollection of the coversation we had.
Because if you're only point was to state that you don't fall in love with a guy's 'gifts'.
Then you could have posted that as a stand alone statement and not in response to what I wrote:
I think you should care about their system and their talent because its the context in which Flynn is being evaluated.
If you're saying you like Flynn because of his physical skillset then by all means dismiss the context.
But, if you like Flynn because of his production you'd better play close attention to the system and the talent where he amassed that production.
Because rest assured you're signing/trading Flynn's physical skillset not his production.
And imo Flynn skillset suggest that he's more of the quintessential 'system' QB then he is a scheme diverse physically gifted QB.
And if you're signing a system QB you'd better be able to replicate the the pieces of that system (caoching/gameplanning/playcalling/talent (receiving corps/OL etc) if you want similar results.

BTW-I don't "fall in love with a guy's 'gifts'" either