2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)

WTF Griffin wants to go to law school before being an NFL star?! Really?!

The real question is.............

Should the skins......."Squeeze out a turd for Robert Griffin the third????""

The hit to bust rate is about two-thirds hits to one third busts for the years 2002-2007 for first rounders that aren't also top ten picks. That's just a back of the napkin calculation that I did.

To recap: about 80% hits for top ten players
about 65% hits for 11-32.

I'm going to do a value analysis to see if the chances of getting a "big time" player in the top ten are much better than those odds.

Wasn't we linked to picking up Matt Flynn the back-up QB in gray bay, he's a FA at the end of the season.

A couple things on a study I am doing.

Between 1997-2006, a top ten overall pick was about 38% more valuable than a pick between 11-32, and about 22% more valuable than a random pick within the first round. A top five pick is about 27% more valuable than a random pick in the first round.

First overall picks come out as 55% more valuable, but that's more a sampling issue because my sample contains Peyton Manning. If you do the same thing but just from 1999-2006, first overall picks are only 14% more valuable than a random selection in the first round. Again, that's a sample size issue, which is why stat guys can't say "the first overall pick is with 'X'".

In fact, it's been harder to find a good QB in the top five picks in the last seven drafts than it has been in the rest of the first round. Again, that's a sampling issue. And the Aaron Rodgers effect.

The only metric I used was PFR's career AV. I did not take into account the value of the contract signed by draft position. Just the value of the players career to date. Obviously, this methodology underrates the value of players drafted in 2005 and 2006 vs. 1999 and 2000, but that's an evil I was willing to live with.

According to a report on Profootballtalk.com, RG3's parents are already interviewing agents.

Report: Robert Griffin III’s parents interviewing agents | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/16/report-robert-griffin-iiis-parents-interviewing-agents/)

I was thinking about this yesterday as well. One scenario that I could probably live with is Yates leading Houston deep in the playoffs, Houston deciding to go with Yates for the long haul, and trading Schaub to the Redskins to move up in the draft. The Redskins could then keep adding depth to the offensive line, drafting some linebackers or a good shut down safety. That would make a lot of sense for the Redskins, considering that Matt Schaub already knows Kyle's offense, so no learning curve - MS could be plugged in while the 'skins continue to build the team around him.

The Redskins could still draft a QB in 2013 or 2014, and give him time to hold a clip board like Aaron Rodgers. I could definitely live with this scenario.

So you're saying if the constantly underachieving with Schaub Texans go deep in the playoffs without him...then you'd be cool with trading our top pick for him?

WTF Griffin wants to go to law school before being an NFL star?! Really?!

Robert Griffin III's Parents Shopping For Agent, According To Report - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2011/12/16/2641568/robert-griffin-iii-baylor-agent-nfl-draft-pro-parents)

According to a report on Profootballtalk.com, RG3's parents are already interviewing agents.

Report: Robert Griffin III’s parents interviewing agents | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/16/report-robert-griffin-iiis-parents-interviewing-agents/)

No surprise, A guy this smart knows the famous BoB Marley lyric, strike the hammer while the iron is hot. of course Silverback and Fred Davis could know that lyric too, but not the meaning

some guys just don't want to hop in the Pros right away I guess... Oh well

speaking of that

Scouts say Oklahoma's Landry Jones shouldn't enter 2012 NFL Draft - Mocking The Draft (http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/11/6/2542797/oklahoma-landry-jones-2012-nfl-draft)