2012 QB Prospects (Part 2)

From ESPN:
Jeremy Mills of ESPN Stats & Information passed along the order through the top 11, noting that a Pittsburgh victory over Kansas City in the late game Sunday would drop the Rams to third and the Seahawks to 12th. The order for NFC West teams would remain unchanged if the Chiefs won. Pending the Chiefs-Steelers outcome, the order reads this way:

•1. Indianapolis: Peyton Manning's age and injury situation would compel the Colts to strongly consider drafting a QB.

•2. St. Louis: The Rams' current leadership loves Sam Bradford. Question is, will the Rams' current leadership survive the season?

•3. Minnesota: The Vikings selected Christian Ponder with the 12th overall choice in 2011.

•4. Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert is just getting started.

•5. Carolina: Suffice to say, the Panthers are pleased with Cam Newton.

•6. Miami: The Dolphins have needed a franchise quarterback for years.

•7. Washington: Shanahan has young pass rushers and a young left tackle. He needs a quarterback.

•8. Arizona: The Cardinals made a huge financial commitment to Kevin Kolb.

•9. Philadelphia: Michael Vick's contract and presence would steer the Eagles toward other positions.

•10. Cleveland: Colt McCoy hasn't done enough to deter the Browns from considering a QB early.

•11. Seattle: The Seahawks haven't drafted a QB since using a 2009 sixth-rounder for Mike Teel.

The same article drew some interesting comparisons between the Seahawks and the Redskins:

Watching Grossman ultimately outplay Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson brought to mind strong comparisons between the Seahawks and Redskins, teams with older coaches, journeyman quarterbacks and, in some ways, similar approaches.

Carroll, like Washington's Mike Shanahan, took his current job in 2010. Neither man has drafted a quarterback. Both have used top-six draft choices for left tackles. Both have used top-15 choices to bolster their defenses. Both have sought to build their offenses around zone running schemes. And both will presumably be looking for QBs in the 2012 draft.
Carroll's players the ones going 'hormonal' - NFC West Blog - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/52586/carrolls-players-the-ones-going-hormonal)

Under the current scenario, we should have a decent shot at Barkley (if he comes out), Jones or RGIII (if he comes out).

Lots of time between now and April for all sorts of things to change, but I gotta think we end up with a QB as a top 10 pick. I don't see the Colts trading out of the top spot. Question is would Seattle try to leapfrog us and grab a QB.

I think a lot depends on who is coming out. If all the Juniors declare, we simply stay put and take Barkley, RGIII or Jones. I think I am pulling for RGIII or Jones, just not excited about Barkley, but I don't really follow college ball and am mostly going from what I have read here and from the pundits at ESPN and SI.

When I look at this scenario that JoeRedskin provided via ESPN I tend to relax a bit concerning the probability of our getting a QB in the upcoming draft.

•1. Indianapolis: Peyton Manning's age and injury situation would compel the Colts to strongly consider drafting a QB.

•2. St. Louis: The Rams' current leadership loves Sam Bradford. Question is, will the Rams' current leadership survive the season?

•3. Minnesota: The Vikings selected Christian Ponder with the 12th overall choice in 2011.

•4. Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert is just getting started.

•5. Carolina: Suffice to say, the Panthers are pleased with Cam Newton.

•6. Miami: The Dolphins have needed a franchise quarterback for years.

•7. Washington: Shanahan has young pass rushers and a young left tackle. He needs a quarterback.

•8. Arizona: The Cardinals made a huge financial commitment to Kevin Kolb.

•9. Philadelphia: Michael Vick's contract and presence would steer the Eagles toward other positions.

•10. Cleveland: Colt McCoy hasn't done enough to deter the Browns from considering a QB early.

•11. Seattle: The Seahawks haven't drafted a QB since using a 2009 sixth-rounder for Mike Teel.

One thing I haven't thought about much is this: What if Peyton Manning comes back healthy? The Colts have a ton of money invested in him, his value to the team is virtually inestimable, and they have many needs other than QB. Would they trade out of the #1 slot to pick up more pieces to put around Manning instead of taking Luck? It would have to be considered. Does anyone here know if the Colts could even afford the cap hit of having Manning and Luck on their roster?

Secondly, whether we have a shot at Luck or we go after another highly rated QB, we're probably going to have to compete with some other teams to move up in the draft in order to pick that QB. We may need to offer up more and better high draft picks to either Indy, St. Louis, or Minnesota to beat out Miami, Seattle, or even Cleveland to get that pick. Winning such a bidding war would adversely affect our upcoming draft and probably the one after that. Is that something the Skins would want to do and should they do it? For Luck? For one of Barkley, Jones, or RGIII?

I think you can see why I think that we win if all four of these players come out this year. Either the cost in draft picks to get one of them would be far less dear or we could simply wait for one of them to fall to us in the draft.

Now, Andrew Luck is a special case, IMO. If the Colts are willing to trade out of the #1 slot, the Skins will need to assess if Luck is likely to be the next great NFL QB. I'm talking future HOF'er. Could he do for us what Peyton Manning did for Indy? If the answer is "yes", then they should go all in. If it is "no", then the focus should either shift to one of the other top QB's or we should draft a QB later depending on how many of the top 4 QB prospects come out.

There may be some especially difficult decisions that the Skins management will need to make concerning the QB position in the upcoming draft.

I'd love Matt Flynn and a Rookie QB as well


Yeah ive been thinking about this. If we draft a QB in the top 10 whats the odds that a "big named" FA would want to sign with us? If we draft a QB in the top ten whats the odds Rex stays with us?

Does anyone know when FA starts in 2012?

When I look at this scenario that JoeRedskin provided via ESPN I tend to relax a bit concerning the probability of our getting a QB in the upcoming draft.

•1. Indianapolis: Peyton Manning's age and injury situation would compel the Colts to strongly consider drafting a QB.

•2. St. Louis: The Rams' current leadership loves Sam Bradford. Question is, will the Rams' current leadership survive the season?

•3. Minnesota: The Vikings selected Christian Ponder with the 12th overall choice in 2011.

•4. Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert is just getting started.

•5. Carolina: Suffice to say, the Panthers are pleased with Cam Newton.

•6. Miami: The Dolphins have needed a franchise quarterback for years.

•7. Washington: Shanahan has young pass rushers and a young left tackle. He needs a quarterback.

•8. Arizona: The Cardinals made a huge financial commitment to Kevin Kolb.

•9. Philadelphia: Michael Vick's contract and presence would steer the Eagles toward other positions.

•10. Cleveland: Colt McCoy hasn't done enough to deter the Browns from considering a QB early.

•11. Seattle: The Seahawks haven't drafted a QB since using a 2009 sixth-rounder for Mike Teel.

One thing I haven't thought about much is this: What if Peyton Manning comes back healthy? The Colts have a ton of money invested in him, his value to the team is virtually inestimable, and they have many needs other than QB. Would they trade out of the #1 slot to pick up more pieces to put around Manning instead of taking Luck? It would have to be considered. Does anyone here know if the Colts could even afford the cap hit of having Manning and Luck on their roster?

Secondly, whether we have a shot at Luck or we go after another highly rated QB, we're probably going to have to compete with some other teams to move up in the draft in order to pick that QB. We may need to offer up more and better high draft picks to either Indy, St. Louis, or Minnesota to beat out Miami, Seattle, or even Cleveland to get that pick. Winning such a bidding war would adversely affect our upcoming draft and probably the one after that. Is that something the Skins would want to do and should they do it? For Luck? For one of Barkley, Jones, or RGIII?

I think you can see why I think that we win if all four of these players come out this year. Either the cost in draft picks to get one of them would be far less dear or we could simply wait for one of them to fall to us in the draft.

Now, Andrew Luck is a special case, IMO. If the Colts are willing to trade out of the #1 slot, the Skins will need to assess if Luck is likely to be the next great NFL QB. I'm talking future HOF'er. Could he do for us what Peyton Manning did for Indy? If the answer is "yes", then they should go all in. If it is "no", then the focus should either shift to one of the other top QB's or we should draft a QB later depending on how many of the top 4 QB prospects come out.

There may be some especially difficult decisions that the Skins management will need to make concerning the QB position in the upcoming draft.


Here is the best breakdown I have read about the Luck vs. Manning deal.

Can Manning and Luck live happily ever after, together?
The cogent points you need to know about Peyton Manning's contract, and how it impacts the 2012 draft plans of the Indianapolis Colts:
1. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, together, would count $21.2 million against the 2012 salary cap, which is not prohibitive. The 2012 cap number for each team will be approximately $121 million.
You can substitute any player for Luck if you choose, because since the new CBA came out, the first-round picks are paid sanely. Manning's number will be $17 million if the Colts exercise his contract option after the season. The first pick in the draft will have a cap number of about $4.2 million (Cam Newton's in 2011 was $4 million) in a total deal of four years and about $23 million.
This means the Colts, who have to make hard decisions on veteran producers who will be unrestricted free agents next March -- like Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis and Jeff Saturday (combined 2011 cap number: $17.94 million) -- will certainly be able to clear the money to keep Manning and draft his heir. In case you doubt the Colts' willingness to clear the decks, keep this in mind: In 2006, then-GM Bill Polian ignored the fan howlings and let Edgerrin James walk in free agency; he drafted Joseph Addai in the first round the next year, and the Colts won their only Super Bowl of the Manning Era that season.
Maybe the Colts try to get Saturday back for a year to smooth the transition, but they won't blink about losing very good veterans, such as the 33-year-old Wayne, if history is a judge.
2. The Colts can't trade Manning before his huge $28 million option bonus is due. The bonus is payable several days before the start of the 2012 league year, traditionally around March 1. Trades can't be made until the league year begins. So if Manning and his agent, Tom Condon, don't agree to extend the deadline for payment of the option, the Colts will have to let him go for nothing or exercise the option and pay him huge money ... and perhaps not know for sure if he's going to be whole with his neck injury for 2012.
3. There is some logical financial pressure on the Colts to make the Manning decision before the option is due. In terms of cash paid to Manning in 2012, if the Colts hold onto him for the 2012 season, the number is $35.4 million (the $28 million bonus and $7.4 million salary). For a franchise like Indianapolis, which is not among the leaders in revenue production, a $35.4 million cash outlay for a guy who may not last a full season is a pretty big risk.
4. It's complicated, and I won't bore you, but the Colts would save $6.6 million on the cap next year by jettisoning Manning before the option bonus is due. Cap number in 2012 if they keep Manning is $17 million. Cap number if they sever ties before the league year begins: $10.4 million.
5. Luck's a ridiculous bargain, whoever gets him. Just think: Manning will make $28 million in late February if the Colts exercise his option, with no guarantee that he'll play one play for them. Luck will make $23 million for the next four years, max. And Manning, if kept and active in 2012, will make $12 million more in 2012 than Luck makes in four years.
6. If the Colts draft Luck and cut Manning, it would be cheaper on the cap than if they keep Manning. Combined cap hit for cutting Manning and first-year cap number for Luck: $14.6 million, some $2.4 million less than keeping Manning and trading the first overall pick. Of course, that depends how far down in the draft Indianapolis goes -- and what the cap hits are of the picks they get if they make a deal.
Bottom line: The cap hit for keeping Manning and drafting Luck would be quite tolerable, but there's significant motivation for the Colts to have hard proof that Manning can play by February. It's almost inconceivable to think if he were still struggling physically come early February that the Colts would shell out $35 million to keep a 36-year-old player whose health they aren't sure about.

Read more: Aaron Rodgers vs. Matthew Stafford kicks off an action-packed Thanksgiving trio of games - Peter King - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/11/21/Week11/index.html#ixzz1f17rzOXN)

Yeah ive been thinking about this. If we draft a QB in the top 10 whats the odds that a "big named" FA would want to sign with us? If we draft a QB in the top ten whats the odds Rex stays with us?

Does anyone know when FA starts in 2012?

March 3 if I recall correctly, or maybe it was the 13th. Pretty sure it's the 3rd though

I'm just going to put this out there. Browns apparently really want Barkley. Like they realllly want him.

Could be that they'd be willing to trade their 2 1st round picks to move up to get him.

So...say we have a shot to get Barkley...or we have a shot to trade down and get say a Landry Jones and a nother first round pick. Or maybe we get two 1st round non QBs and someone like a Nick Foles (as an example) at the top of the 2nd.

What do you do?

Or... We trade Franchise Tag Landry, Trade him to NE or GB for Flynn or Hoyer! Then trade back in the draft for the Browns 1st rounders....

Profit!

If the skins have a chance at Barkley they should get him, I don't care if the Browns offer 2 #1's.

I'm just going to put this out there. Browns apparently really want Barkley. Like they realllly want him.

Could be that they'd be willing to trade their 2 1st round picks to move up to get him.

So...say we have a shot to get Barkley...or we have a shot to trade down and get say a Landry Jones and a nother first round pick. Or maybe we get two 1st round non QBs and someone like a Nick Foles (as an example) at the top of the 2nd.

What do you do?

You have to strongly consider it, but its a little early and a ton could happen between now and then. But if there is QB at our position who Shanny and Kyle strongly believe in whether its Barkley, Jones, or RG3, we should take the QB at the pick. I got this strange feeling Shanny and Kyle wont like those 3 for some reason.

I'm just going to put this out there. Browns apparently really want Barkley. Like they realllly want him.

Could be that they'd be willing to trade their 2 1st round picks to move up to get him.

So...say we have a shot to get Barkley...or we have a shot to trade down and get say a Landry Jones and a nother first round pick. Or maybe we get two 1st round non QBs and someone like a Nick Foles (as an example) at the top of the 2nd.

What do you do?I think Barkley is better than anyone we could get down the board, but holy crap, two first round picks? I'd get either Landry Jones or Nick Foles with the first pick and hope they can throw Colt McCoy into the deal as well, and then we still have a full slate of picks to address the issue.

With that said, I imagine that Cleveland will have to move up into the top 4 picks to get Matt Barkley. And we won't pick in the top four unless we lose the final five games of the season. Which we will not.