Active HOF candidates

Take your best guesses of active players of who will eventually make the HOF. My list is organized into slam dunks (80-100% sure), probables (79-50% sure), the possibles (49-0% sure...mostly closer to zero percent).

Slam Dunks (barring no injuries) (in no particular order)
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Ben Roethlessberger
4. Phillip Rivers
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Andre Johnson
8. Julius Peppers
9. Demarcus Ware
10. Rey Lewis
11. Brian Urlacher
12. Adrian Peterson
13. Darell Revis
14. Nnamdi Asomuagh
15. Randy Moss
16. Terell Owens
17. Charles Woodson
18. Drew Brees
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
21. Darren Sharper
22. Ladanian Tomlinson
23. Jake Long
24. Joe Thomas
25. Nick Mangold
26. Patrick Willis
27. Richard Seymour
28. Champ Bailey
29. Dwight Freeney
30. Tony Gonzolez
31. Antonio Gates
32. Calvin Johnson
33. Brian Dawkins

Probables(79-50%) (in no particular order)

1. Ndamakung Suh
2. Sam Bradford
3. Haloti Ngata
4. Devin Hester
5. Chris Johnson
6. Steve Hutchinson
7. Jeff Saturday
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Clay Matthews
10. Vince Wilfork
11. Mario Williams
12. James Harrison
13. Jared Allen
14. Jason Witten
15. Eric Berry
16. Logan Mankins

Possibles (49-0%) (in no particular order)

1. Tamba Hali
2. Torrey Holt (still active)
3. Jhari Evans
4. Carl Nicks
5. Terell Suggs
6. Cameron Wake
7. Hines Ward
8. Vernon Davis
9. Jerod Mayo
10. Osi Umenyoura
11. Justin Tuck
12. Devin McCourty
13. Joe Haden
14. Roddy White
15. Tiki Barber
16. Rhonde Barber
17. Elvis Dumerville
18. Laron Landry
19. London Fletcher
20. Brian Orakpo
21. Russell Okung
22. Earl Thomas
23. Pat Williams
24. Kevin Williams
25. Gerald McCoy
26. Brian Cushing
27. Chad Ochocinco
28. Eli Manning
29. Lamaar Woodley
30. Arian Foster
31. Jamaal Charles
32. Brandon Marshall
33. Asante Samuel
33. Greg Jennings
34. BJ Raji
35. Lance Briggs
36. Donovan McNabb
37. Adrian Wilson
38. Karlos Dansby
39. Brian Waters
40. Maurice Jones-Drew
41. Steven Jackson
42. John Abraham

I need to go now, so I probably messed up by my own standards on some accounts. I'll probably edit this later, but all edits I make I will make a foot note at the bottom indicating so.

Post your own lists, in any format you want, and feel free to challenge anything I say. I love intellectual debate on this type of stuff.

This seems like a pretty aggressive list

There are a few non-slam dunks on your slam dunk list.

WAY too early to judge many of those players.

Carlos Rogers should be on your slam dunk list... just ask him. :rolleyes:

This seems like a pretty aggressive list

It looks like roughly 6 players make it each year as of recent history. The average HOF player (in my rough estimate) probably averages 14 years in the league (some more, some less). Lets drop those numbers by 1 to be conservative and say 5 players make it each year and the average hof player averages 13 years in the league. That means that there are 65 HOF players playing right now. I only listed 48 players that I thought were probably going to make it. At first glance it seems over the top and aggressive due to the massive amount of players listed, but I don't believe it to be aggressive because it corresponds with how many players will make it.

Also on a side note, I think the WR log jam is not only due to the number of WR's competing against each other trying to get it, I think part of it has to do with the numbers that WRs are putting up today. Granted it is a more pass happy league today, but in a few years, when a bunch of todays WR's pass players's numbers that just recently got elected into the hall of fame, it will be hard to say that they all can't get in as well. I think part of the log jam is that the voters are waiting to see how big the numbers are that today's WR's are going to put up before they induct WR's with potentially inferior numbers. I'm not saying that's a right mentality due to the change in the game and the inflation of numbers today, I'm just saying that politically it might cause future problems.

There are a few non-slam dunks on your slam dunk list.

WAY too early to judge many of those players.

Please tell me who, I would love to hear who you disagree with and why. As I said in my previous post, there will be at a minimum 65 players playing today elected into the HOF. Maybe not initially because there are old-timers still getting put in before their time expires, but one day these current players will be the old-timers and over time there will be 65 current players inducted.
You are right, it is sometimes hard to judge (shawne merriman, lavaar arrington, etc...) who will get in too early. First of all, that IMO is the fun of making this list, predicting the odds. But also I know it is a matter of odds and anything can happen, which is why I put broad percentages next to each category. Personally I wanted to be more aggressive than I was due to the amount of current players I think will make the HOF, but I know that too many people already view my list as too aggressive as is and didn't want to rock the boat even more.

Interesting thread. Looking at your list, off the top of my head I'd cut it back a bit. Here's my changes:

Slam Dunks (barring no injuries) (in no particular order)
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
8. Julius Peppers
9. Demarcus Ware
10. Rey Lewis
15. Randy Moss
16. Terell Owens
17. Charles Woodson
18. Drew Brees
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
22. Ladanian Tomlinson
28. Champ Bailey
29. Dwight Freeney
30. Tony Gonzolez
31. Antonio Gates

Probables(79-50%) (in no particular order)
27. Richard Seymour - probably, but it will take at least 5 years for him to get in.
5. Aaron Rodgers - must continue to produce for another 3-4 years at current level or win another SB.
6. Larry Fitzgerald - too early, needs to get back to Pro Bowl production level in either AZ or elsewhere.
1. Ndamakung Suh
6. Steve Hutchinson
7. Jeff Saturday
10. Vince Wilfork
12. James Harrison

Possibles -
3. Ben Roethlessberger - outside of the off-field stuff, which will be considered by voters, the guy has only been to the PB once. He didn't play well in the SB win over Seattle. He's definitely got more to put on the resume before he moves from Very Good to HoF.
32. Calvin Johnson - too early, needs 4-6 more years producing at Pro Bowl level
23. Jake Long - way too early, he need several years producing at Pro Bowl level. 50/50
24. Joe Thomas - see above 50/50
25. Nick Mangold - 50/50
26. Patrick Willis - see Jake Long
11. Brian Urlacher - borderline, needs to win something or he's 50/50
12. Adrian Peterson - must stay in run oriented offense and stay healthy 50/50
13. Darell Revis - another 4-5 years at current level, would help to win something
14. Nnamdi Asomuagh - needs to continue production at PB level for 3 more years, better than 50/50 if so.
4. Phillip Rivers - unless he wins a SB, he moves into the 50/50 category
7. Andre Johnson - too early, needs 5-6 more years producing at Pro Bowl level
3. Haloti Ngata
5. Chris Johnson - too early, needs 4-6 more Pro Bowl seasons
8. Reggie Wayne - unless Indy wins another SB, doubtful both Harrison and Wayne get in.
9. Clay Matthews - too early
11. Mario Williams - needs to continue at a PB level for several more seasons or win SB.
13. Jared Allen - 50/50
16. Logan Mankins - needs another 3-4 PB level years.

Doubtful:

5. Terell Suggs - He's a very good player, but it's not the Hall of Very Good.
2. Sam Bradford - way too early, guy has to win something or be a consistent Pro Bowler for several seasons. He's doubtful.
4. Devin Hester - doubtful, nice speed but return specialists don't make the HoF.
14. Jason Witten - needs to be part of SB win
7. Hines Ward - doubtful, not a dominant WR
10. Osi Umenyoura - doubtful
11. Justin Tuck - doubful
15. Tiki Barber - No
16. Rhonde Barber - maybe by Veteran committee
15. Eric Berry - too early
19. London Fletcher - he's under-appreciated now, maybe by veterans
23. Pat Williams - doubtful
24. Kevin Williams - doubtful
27. Chad Ochocinco - No, the guy disappears a lot.
28. Eli Manning - needs at least 1 more SB and a few PB years
33. Asante Samuel - 50/50, the dropped INT in the SB hurt.
35. Lance Briggs - doubtful
36. Donovan McNabb - If he doesn't rebound and have another good year or two, I'd say he's very borderline and maybe a veteran selection.
40. Maurice Jones-Drew - gotta win SB or have a bunch more PB years.
41. Steven Jackson - see above
42. John Abraham - winning SB would help, otherwise probably not.

Retired:
21. Darren Woodson - retired

It looks like roughly 6 players make it each year as of recent history. The average HOF player (in my rough estimate) probably averages 14 years in the league (some more, some less). Lets drop those numbers by 1 to be conservative and say 5 players make it each year and the average hof player averages 13 years in the league. That means that there are 65 HOF players playing right now. I only listed 48 players that I thought were probably going to make it. At first glance it seems over the top and aggressive due to the massive amount of players listed, but I don't believe it to be aggressive because it corresponds with how many players will make it.

Also on a side note, I think the WR log jam is not only due to the number of WR's competing against each other trying to get it, I think part of it has to do with the numbers that WRs are putting up today. Granted it is a more pass happy league today, but in a few years, when a bunch of todays WR's pass players's numbers that just recently got elected into the hall of fame, it will be hard to say that they all can't get in as well. I think part of the log jam is that the voters are waiting to see how big the numbers are that today's WR's are going to put up before they induct WR's with potentially inferior numbers. I'm not saying that's a right mentality due to the change in the game and the inflation of numbers today, I'm just saying that politically it might cause future problems.Your 65 active HOFs estimate isn't inclusive of the fact that about half of each year's hall of fame class includes players whose playing days ended 15-30 years earlier. I don't think that these players necessarily have a better case than the 40th best active player (Ben Roethlisberger, for example, on the top 100 players list), but we tend to remember the past more fondly, which means the 65 active hall of famers estimate is too high.

The other way to look at it is that 65 players, once inducted, would comprise about 13-17% of the entire hall of fame, which includes contributors such as coaches, front office types, owners, and NFL films execs. So even if you cut the 65 by just 2/3s to 43, you'd still have to count maybe a Mara, an Accorsi, a Polian, and a Belichick or Dungy in that total.

Still, I don't think that detracts from this being a really good thread idea. I'll go team by team so I can organize my thoughts as I write.

Your 65 active HOFs estimate isn't inclusive of the fact that about half of each year's hall of fame class includes players whose playing days ended 15-30 years earlier. I don't think that these players necessarily have a better case than the 40th best active player (Ben Roethlisberger, for example, on the top 100 players list), but we tend to remember the past more fondly, which means the 65 active hall of famers estimate is too high.

The other way to look at it is that 65 players, once inducted, would comprise about 13-17% of the entire hall of fame, which includes contributors such as coaches, front office types, owners, and NFL films execs. So even if you cut the 65 by just 2/3s to 43, you'd still have to count maybe a Mara, an Accorsi, a Polian, and a Belichick or Dungy in that total.

Still, I don't think that detracts from this being a really good thread idea. I'll go team by team so I can organize my thoughts as I write.

I appreciate the compliment on the thread. I actually thought about what you said before I mentioned the 65. I took a sample size of the last 5 years, and the players who got inducted were actually closer to 6 than 5 per year. I said 5 to be conservative. The non-older players that get inducted averaged at least 14 years in the league, I said 13 to be conservative once again. To your comment of players who haven't played for 30 years getting in limits the number of recent players to get in, that is semi-true but misleading. Because 30 years down the road these players will be the ones being fondly remembered and put in the hall. Its a cycle. Just because they don't get in immediately doesn't mean they won't get in their last few years they are eligible. 65 I believe to be accurate because although I am being conservative based on my numbers, I believe the amount of people let in the hall will decrease in a few years. My conservancy I believe will balance out the decrease in eventual inductees over time.

Interesting thread. Looking at your list, off the top of my head I'd cut it back a bit. Here's my changes:

Slam Dunks (barring no injuries) (in no particular order)
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
8. Julius Peppers
9. Demarcus Ware
10. Rey Lewis
15. Randy Moss
16. Terell Owens
17. Charles Woodson
18. Drew Brees
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
22. Ladanian Tomlinson
28. Champ Bailey
29. Dwight Freeney
30. Tony Gonzolez
31. Antonio Gates

Probables(79-50%) (in no particular order)
27. Richard Seymour - probably, but it will take at least 5 years for him to get in.
5. Aaron Rodgers - must continue to produce for another 3-4 years at current level or win another SB.
6. Larry Fitzgerald - too early, needs to get back to Pro Bowl production level in either AZ or elsewhere.
1. Ndamakung Suh
6. Steve Hutchinson
7. Jeff Saturday
10. Vince Wilfork
12. James Harrison

Possibles -
3. Ben Roethlessberger - outside of the off-field stuff, which will be considered by voters, the guy has only been to the PB once. He didn't play well in the SB win over Seattle. He's definitely got more to put on the resume before he moves from Very Good to HoF.
32. Calvin Johnson - too early, needs 4-6 more years producing at Pro Bowl level
23. Jake Long - way too early, he need several years producing at Pro Bowl level. 50/50
24. Joe Thomas - see above 50/50
25. Nick Mangold - 50/50
26. Patrick Willis - see Jake Long
11. Brian Urlacher - borderline, needs to win something or he's 50/50
12. Adrian Peterson - must stay in run oriented offense and stay healthy 50/50
13. Darell Revis - another 4-5 years at current level, would help to win something
14. Nnamdi Asomuagh - needs to continue production at PB level for 3 more years, better than 50/50 if so.
4. Phillip Rivers - unless he wins a SB, he moves into the 50/50 category
7. Andre Johnson - too early, needs 5-6 more years producing at Pro Bowl level
3. Haloti Ngata
5. Chris Johnson - too early, needs 4-6 more Pro Bowl seasons
8. Reggie Wayne - unless Indy wins another SB, doubtful both Harrison and Wayne get in.
9. Clay Matthews - too early
11. Mario Williams - needs to continue at a PB level for several more seasons or win SB.
13. Jared Allen - 50/50
16. Logan Mankins - needs another 3-4 PB level years.

Doubtful:

5. Terell Suggs - He's a very good player, but it's not the Hall of Very Good.
2. Sam Bradford - way too early, guy has to win something or be a consistent Pro Bowler for several seasons. He's doubtful.
4. Devin Hester - doubtful, nice speed but return specialists don't make the HoF.
14. Jason Witten - needs to be part of SB win
7. Hines Ward - doubtful, not a dominant WR
10. Osi Umenyoura - doubtful
11. Justin Tuck - doubful
15. Tiki Barber - No
16. Rhonde Barber - maybe by Veteran committee
15. Eric Berry - too early
19. London Fletcher - he's under-appreciated now, maybe by veterans
23. Pat Williams - doubtful
24. Kevin Williams - doubtful
27. Chad Ochocinco - No, the guy disappears a lot.
28. Eli Manning - needs at least 1 more SB and a few PB years
33. Asante Samuel - 50/50, the dropped INT in the SB hurt.
35. Lance Briggs - doubtful
36. Donovan McNabb - If he doesn't rebound and have another good year or two, I'd say he's very borderline and maybe a veteran selection.
40. Maurice Jones-Drew - gotta win SB or have a bunch more PB years.
41. Steven Jackson - see above
42. John Abraham - winning SB would help, otherwise probably not.

Retired:
21. Darren Woodson - retired

For the record, I meant to say darren sharper. He could very realistically retire as the leader in interceptions returned for touchdowns (he is one away for being tied for first).

By my standards I would only put the players in my slam dunk list and only most of the players on my probable list in the HOF if I were voting. But I'm not, and the statistics (that I explained in my previous post), say that roughly 65 players that are currently playing will at one time or another be inducted in the hall. Most of them will get in many years down the road after they retire. We say its the hall of the great, not the very good, but being consistently very good has proven to guys in. Its easier to say they were great 25 years after they retired when people don't remember as well, but in reality, alot of the "very good" will get in.