26-27-60 QB formula

All of this over analyzing, off season testing, college completion % really doesn't mean anything. All that matters is what a guy does once he gets on a team and adjusts to the pro game. Out of all of these QB's, which one can come in and command an NFL playbook? Which one can get hit in the mouth and get up and throw a td pass? Which one is mentally tough or can maybe play through pain? We're really not going to know until they get drafted and start playing.

Thank you. I am tired of all of the speculation and opinion. Can not wait for the draft to be here and for the season to start. As usual we will all be proved wrong once the rookie QB's got on the NFL field. Who will be the next diamond in the rough Tom Brady? That is what people will notice, not the top QB's that were expected to be good.

The accuracy or predictive value of forecasting is a myth.

It leads to this type of spurious logic:


Its also a myth that comp%=accuracy.
Accuracy is about ball placement and ball placement can only be determined by watching a QB throw a tedious amount of throws.

Its also a myth that comp% is a variable that one can reasonably isolate and attribute to the QB alone without factoring in scheme, personnel i.e pass protection and receiver talent.

At the end of the day QB evaluation and football evaluation in general doesn't lend itself to evaluation through stats alone.

Locker is the weirdest prospect I've seen in terms of accuracy.


Spent early career in option-heavy system and last two seasons in pro-style offense with lousy pass protection. Has become a product of environment, as a result. Is more comfortable throwing under fire while on the run than from within the pocket. He has excellent accuracy when throwing on the run and/or outside the pocket (approximately 70-percent in 2010). Oregon State 2010 game is a good example (completed 71.4-percent of throws outside the pocket compared to 57-percent of throws inside the pocket). Looks least comfortable when he's in pocket going through progression reads. He has a long stride at times, which throws off his balance and prevents him from transferring weight from back-to-front. He appears to be thinking too much about mechanics and does not look natural unless he's throwing from on the run.

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

At the very least Lockers accuracy problems aren't nearly as black and white as some want to believe.

Also looks like I was wrong about Ponder being a third round pick.
Schefter: Dalton, Ponder both likely to go in first round | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/schefter-dalton-ponder-both-likely-to-go-in-first-round/)

No matter. Next Friday the Redskins will draft Locker at 10 and suddenly the title of Warpath Rain Man will be mine. ALL MINE!

Also looks like I was wrong about Ponder being a third round pick.
Schefter: Dalton, Ponder both likely to go in first round | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/schefter-dalton-ponder-both-likely-to-go-in-first-round/)

No matter. Next Friday the Redskins will draft Locker at 10 and suddenly the title of Warpath Rain Man will be mine. ALL MINE!

I respectfully offer that you have undervalued Ponder, our future Pro Bowl QB, all along.

I respectfully offer that you have undervalued Ponder, our future Pro Bowl QB, all along.

Well in my defense it was never me assigning him a third round grade. If I had to grade him I would say late first is where he deserves to go based on his talent.

The reason I kept on saying that he was a third round pick was based on what happened to Colt McCoy last year being pretty similar. The main difference between the two is that Colt was more accomplished but Ponder had experience in a pro style offense making the two a push. In fact I thought that Ponders injury concerns were much worse then that of Colts going into last year.

Still maybe I'm overreacting to this speculation as I've heard it before. Most notably with Chris Simms in the days leading up to the draft. So in the end maybe I'll be right in terms of where I've said he'll be drafted. However I wouldn't bat an eye if Ponder ended up as a late first round pick.

Well in my defense it was never me assigning him a third round grade. If I had to grade him I would say late first is where he deserves to go based on his talent.

The reason I kept on saying that he was a third round pick was based on what happened to Colt McCoy last year being pretty similar. The main difference between the two is that Colt was more accomplished but Ponder had experience in a pro style offense making the two a push. In fact I thought that Ponders injury concerns were much worse then that of Colts going into last year.

Still maybe I'm overreacting to this speculation as I've heard it before. Most notably with Chris Simms in the days leading up to the draft. So in the end maybe I'll be right in terms of where I've said he'll be drafted. However I wouldn't bat an eye if Ponder ended up as a late first round pick.

I think you are right on with your Colt McCoy example. We keep hearing that tons of QB's will be taken in the first round this year but McCoy's example makes that seem unlikely. Yes, there are many teams that need QB's and have no recourse to free agency, making this year different. But most of the QB's this year are not immediate starters so I still don't see a first round stampede. This is not a 1983 crop. A run on QB's in the second round, maybe, but there are too many top-quality defensive players this year which will demand first round choices.

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

I agree with you about Newton. Theisman was on the radio here in DC saying that he is shocked Carolina is talking about taking Newton #1 when he doesnt think he's even 1st round material. JT thinks Newton only has 1 year as a starter in an O where the QB runs alot plus when he does throw he has accuracy problems and that doesnt bode well for success as an NFL QB. For once I agree with JT.

Well in my defense it was never me assigning him a third round grade. If I had to grade him I would say late first is where he deserves to go based on his talent.

The reason I kept on saying that he was a third round pick was based on what happened to Colt McCoy last year being pretty similar. The main difference between the two is that Colt was more accomplished but Ponder had experience in a pro style offense making the two a push. In fact I thought that Ponders injury concerns were much worse then that of Colts going into last year.

Still maybe I'm overreacting to this speculation as I've heard it before. Most notably with Chris Simms in the days leading up to the draft. So in the end maybe I'll be right in terms of where I've said he'll be drafted. However I wouldn't bat an eye if Ponder ended up as a late first round pick.

I think you are right on with your Colt McCoy example. We keep hearing that tons of QB's will be taken in the first round this year but McCoy's example makes that seem unlikely. Yes, there are many teams that need QB's and have no recourse to free agency, making this year different. But most of the QB's this year are not immediate starters so I still don't see a first round stampede. This is not a 1983 crop. A run on QB's in the second round, maybe, but there are too many top-quality defensive players this year which will demand first round choices.

Agree with the quick consensus. We're hearing that seven different passers could go in round one. That's nominally true. But I don't think more than one or two teams are going to be able to go up into the first round to get guys they like because of the limit of what they can give up.

Then the recent history shows that: while Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen had first round draft profiles, not only did teams not trade up into the first round to get them, no team traded up at all to get them.