Who Will Be The Redskins 2011 Opening Day Starting QB?

Im sticking with my Matt Flynn prediction

Agree, not very accurate at all

God bless Lou Holtz but my god I can't understand the guy especially when he starts talking fast

Definitely dont want Jake Locker, he just went 7 and 19 in the bowl game. Luck, then Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert are the top 2 qb's in the draft and the only ones id want to draft at #10. Otherwise we need to build the rest of the roster up first and get a qb next year and bring back Sexy Rexy. The QB from Delaware would be a good pick in the 2nd round if he is available to groom under Grossman for a year.

If this kid Luck is as good as they say, we should try to trade our 1st rd this year, a second next year and Donavan McNabb to Carolina.

Luck is a stud, I don't know if you are watching the game. The guy plays like a seasoned pro in the NFL and is polished and is ready to step into the field from day 1. I would offer this years 1st and 2nd and Haynesworth an McNabb for him. Call me crazy but he just might the best prospect since Manning. This guy is a franchise QB that the skins haven't had in a long, long time. The key question is if he comes out.

Im sticking with my Matt Flynn prediction

I don't know if that's a prediction. Seems more like a want if you ask me :D

^ lol I. Mean what do we have that Car would want??

I'll have to get back on you on that one. As a Redskin fan yourself, you to are aware of the teams lack of tradeable assets.

I was crunching the numbers out of boredom. If Rex Grossman would have started every game this year his numbers would have looked a little like this. I know that it is hard to assume that he would maintain a consistent level of production throughout the season but I would take a QB with numbers anywhere close to this in a heartbeat.

CMP/ATT % YDS TD INT Rating
368/672 55% 4,480 37 21 81.1

Sure his completion % and QB rating isn't sexy but the production is there. No rookie is going to give you those numbers in his first season.

I was crunching the numbers out of boredom. If Rex Grossman would have started every game this year his numbers would have looked a little like this. I know that it is hard to assume that he would maintain a consistent level of production throughout the season but I would take a QB with numbers anywhere close to this in a heartbeat.

CMP/ATT % YDS TD INT Rating
368/672 55% 4,480 37 21 81.1

Sure his completion % and QB rating isn't sexy but the production is there. No rookie is going to give you those numbers in his first season.Eh. I understand that making everything linear makes the comparison easiest, but in doing so, we've given Grossman 672 attempts for the year, which would comfortably lead the league. Meaning, of course, that he's getting no meaningful contribution from the running game (because the last three games were about evaluating the pass, I think).

If we prorate Grossman's fumbles as well, you have an additional 21 of those. If he loses just ten of the 21, he's now personally responsible for 31 turnovers on the season. Then when you consider that even the successful passes come with high variance, you have a player who is comfortably below replacement.

It may not be the worst QB situation in the NFL, but 16 games of Grossman would be one of the three worst QB situations in the NFL, in any year. Even an 81.1 passer rating can't support a guy who turns it over 31 times. That's only "production" in the "he managed to start sixteen games" sense. Which was a given in the exercise.

As to your rookie assertion: I doubt a BAD prospect (Max Hall, for example) produces a 81.1 QB rating with 30 or fewer turnovers in his first year, but I think a promising rookie would be more productive than prorated Rex Grossman.

I think that Grossman is capable of better than 81.1. I had to stick with the data from the 3 games that he started. The game against Jax really tore his numbers up. Anyway his 81.1 is better than McScabbs 77.7. I would like to see what Rex can do through an entire season with a functioning running game.

Well, the other thing is that these three games are in no way representative of Grossman's career, which was good for the Redskins since he was much better for three games here than in Chicago. He probably wouldn't be able to hold a 5.3% TD rate through 16 games, especially in our offense. But I'm at least willing to work with the idea that the 3 game sample might be representative of a larger whole.

My contention is that even taking those three games and prorating, you still get a valueless backup, but now one who starts a lot more games. I am disagreeing with your assertion that Grossman's numbers represent productivity. McNabb, for his seemingly Grossman-esque passing numbers, fumbled 10 times in 13 games, which prorates to 12 1/2 times in 16. That's five less turnovers a year in fumbles, before you even consider the wild differences in INT rate.

I don't really believe McNabb is good enough to lead the offense into the future, but he sure is a lot closer to playing at the money level value of his contract ($12 million) than Grossman is to his ($3 million). There's still a very wide gap between the two, even if the bottom line ultimately is ineffective Redskins passer.

I think the most important thing that Grossman brings to the table is the fact that in his two games against NFC East teams he was able to play at the level we were expecting from McNabb when we acquired him from Philly. Still in looking at Grossmans numbers as well as Cutlers I can now see why Shanahan would be comfortable taking someone like Locker.

The fact of the matter is that this offense isn't a high completion offense to begin with. Elway, who's considered the best Shanahan QB had 61% as his best completion percentage in four years with Shanny as a head coach. In the other three years Elway had completion percentages of 58, 55, and 56 percent.

Plummer in his best year had a 60.7% completion rate. With a high of 62.6% in 11 games during his first year in Denver.

Schuab is probably the first truly accurate QB to ever play in the Shanahan system. Which begs the question, do we settle for the 55-61% range due to the fact that Shanahan has had success with QB's like that or do we wait it out and look for someone that will post 63% on a bad year while still throwing downfield (a la Schuab).

I think the most important thing that Grossman brings to the table is the fact that in his two games against NFC East teams he was able to play at the level we were expecting from McNabb when we acquired him from Philly. Still in looking at Grossmans numbers as well as Cutlers I can now see why Shanahan would be comfortable taking someone like Locker.

The fact of the matter is that this offense isn't a high completion offense to begin with. Elway, who's considered the best Shanahan QB had 61% as his best completion percentage in four years with Shanny as a head coach. In the other three years Elway had completion percentages of 58, 55, and 56 percent.

Plummer in his best year had a 60.7% completion rate. With a high of 62.6% in 11 games during his first year in Denver.

Schuab is probably the first truly accurate QB to ever play in the Shanahan system. Which begs the question, do we settle for the 55-61% range due to the fact that Shanahan has had success with QB's like that or do we wait it out and look for someone that will post 63% on a bad year while still throwing downfield (a la Schuab).The post-Shanahan era is just as important in determining the value of draft choices as is their value to Shanahan's team.