Report: Grossman Starting on Sunday

W T F .. that's all I can say ... W T ****ing F .. W T ****ing F .... why why why why why why why why

How does checking down inflate numbers? Completion percentage, perhaps, but if it's actually inflating TDs and yards while lowering INTs, that's called "offense."

Completion percentage without yards or TDs is meaningless, for sure, but if the defense is actually sitting on check downs, it's hella hard to complete those short passes.

I'd actually argue that McNabb has layed out more backs and receivers on ill-advised dumpoffs this year than Campbell ever did. That's the issue with checking down (when it gets your receivers killed), not when you get 7 yards on 2nd and 12.

I'd like to call on a witness that can better explain how completion percentage inflates a QB's passer rating.

NFL Passer Ratings and Completion Percentages: What Do They Really Mean? | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/342748-things-i-learned-from-passer-rating-and-completion-percentage) (Yes I know it's bleacher report).

Fatal Flaw- Completion Percentage

In addition to being now coined a QUARTERBACK rating without evaluating all the ways a quarterback can affect the game even from a tangible standpoint, let alone intangible, the biggest flaw perhaps of the passer rating system is how heavily it is attached to Completion Percentage.

Which is kind of amusing when someone points to a quarterback who doesn't have a great passer rating and cites completion percentage as corroborative evidence of the lack of effectiveness of that particular QB, when those two statistics could not be any more correlated.

There is a reason why a guy like Chad Pennington who ranks so high on the all-time list of completion percentage is also high on the list of passer rating. It's many of the same names at the top of both lists. Same for a Daunte Culpepper. Completion percentage is a misleading statistic that does not take into account routine spectacular catches/routine drops, dump off passes/throw aways, or first down scrambles. It also can be heavily skewed when the total number of pass attempts per game is not high. One to two incomplete passes a game could make all the difference between what's considered respectable and poor.

Completion Percentage In Passer Rating Formula

Completion percentage plays perhaps the biggest factor in the entire passer rating formula to the point where someone who has a not so great touchdown to interception ratio can rank near the all-time greats while someone such as McNabb who has the second best TD/INT ratio of all-time is not even in the top 15 in that category that only uses those four statistics. This is again why on the all-time passer rating list has those names that clearly don't belong above current/future HOFers.

I'd like to call on a witness that can better explain how completion percentage inflates a QB's passer rating.

NFL Passer Ratings and Completion Percentages: What Do They Really Mean? | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/342748-things-i-learned-from-passer-rating-and-completion-percentage) (Yes I know it's bleacher report).Does anyone still give a crap about passer rating? It's a monstrosity of a stat, and that comes from me.

I don't think passer rating = all numbers. If all numbers are trending upward, then the offense is improving, nothing is being inflated.

Donovan McNabb has the worst TD% of his career and the worst INT% of his career. His completion percentage is where it's always been. The reason his QB rating is down has nothing to do with his completion percentage.

If you use completion percentage, you know exactly what you are seeing. Percentage of completions over total attempts. That's easy. If you use passer rating, you have a gross performance estimate, but you have no idea what you are actually judging a QB on.

In short, completion percentage = good, while passer rating = largely useless.

Remember when the Redskins were a good football team? Ahhhhhh, those were the days. The eighties were great!

Donovan McNabb “very disappointed,” “I strongly disagree” | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/17/donovan-mcnabb-very-disappointed-i-strongly-disagree/)

The correlation between QB rating and completion percentage is well documented. The reasoning is that QBs that complete a high percentage of their passes also throw for more yards per attempt, more TDs, and (usually, though not always) fewer INTs. That's why QB rating has managed to hold mainstream for so long: because it doesn't give 100+ ratings to people who sucked. It gave 100+ ratings to guys who have dominated the defense through completions through yards and TDs.

Also, even one INT probably puts the single game QB rating under 90. Interception percentage is the least correlated with completion percentage. Which is probably the one benefit of using QB rating instead of completion percentage: completion percentage probably overrates the guys who often don't read a defense (Favre, Cutler) before going all gunslinger on us.

But completion percentage doesn't overrate those who check down without reading the defense. Those players likely don't throw for yards or points either.

I did a PFR query, and found one season in NFL history where a quarterback performed well below average, for an entire season, but his completion percentage suggested greatness. It was David Carr's one season under Gary Kubiak, in 2006 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CarrDa00.htm). Carr was released in the offseason, and his 82.1 QB rating wasn't even the best of his career. This may be the only season in NFL history that qualifies a QB who clearly completed too many meaningless passes (Houston finished 24th in passing DVOA (http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2006) that season).

/rant

Donovan McNabb “very disappointed,” “I strongly disagree” | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/17/donovan-mcnabb-very-disappointed-i-strongly-disagree/)

DM is a class guy so I definitely feel bad for him.

But in the end this marriage just isn't going to work, and as MS said anything DM would do over these last 3 games wouldn't change how he feels about how he did over the first 13 so...

Might as well see if Grossman can at least be a viable 6-8 game starter next year until a rookie is ready.

I would think more people would be happy with this, since it basically forces Shanahan to "rebuild".

DM is a class guy so I definitely feel bad for him.

But in the end this marriage just isn't going to work, and as MS said anything DM would do over these last 3 games wouldn't change how he feels about how he did over the first 13 so...

Might as well see if Grossman can at least be a viable 6-8 game starter next year until a rookie is ready.

I would think more people would be happy with this, since it basically forces Shanahan to "rebuild".

I just dont know if Shanny really wants to "Rebuild" It will be another interesting off season in DC

My take on Mike Shanahan is pretty clear... He is 100% ANTI "Superstar"... anti-"Special Treatment"

... meaning, he doesn't even entertain the idea of someone getting superstar treatment or being "grandfathered" in to leeway. Either you practice 100%, perform well, or you are sat down.

He's not going to budge at all to meet common ground or give in at all to a player.

That I can respect a little... but at the same time...

He has made some of the craziest bone-headed moves I could have imagined.

Mistake 1: 3-4 defense. If he evaluated the Skins at all last year he'd have known that we had the pieces for a 4-3... with some of our absolute best players thriving in it. And not just Haynesworth, but he, Carter, and Rak all used properly in the 4-3 may have helped us win at least 1 or 2 more games this year IMO.

Mistake 2: Benching McNabb vs Lions wasn't the mistake... it's how he handled it after that was... whoa dumb.

Mistake 3: Not going after Houshmenzadeh or R. Moss when they were available and dirt cheap. We could have had them BOTH... these guys could've help evaluate McNabb (taking away the whole "he had no weapons" excuse... imagine Santana & Randy Moss on the outside, Housh in the slot, with Cooley & F. Davis as your TEs)

Mistake 4: Benching McNabb right now. Everyone knows Grossman & Beck are not future Super Bowl winning QBs and now all we've done is ruin trade value we had for McNabb. If he's not your guy... fine... but whew... dumb.