V. Jackson "Prepared to Sit out season"

Unless we just want to have a bunch of quality players to try and resign during the possible up coming lockout.

That would be DM, Jamaal B, and VJ.

That is alot of cake to try and write out in one offseason.

When I think of guys who make the most of their opportunities, I think of guys like Vincent Jackson, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Randy Moss, and Miles Austin.

When I think of guys who do the least with their opportunities, I think of Brandon Marshall, Santana Moss, and Roy Williams.

Not that those aren't all good players. They are, in their own different ways.

Bullpuckey.

Santana Moss has been the best receiver we could have imagined for what we gave up, to get him. He has great stats and has is a true team player. So bash someone else.

^ agree 100%! Moss is a beast

^ moss is steve smith without the mouth

Only 1 year...03. I don't think I need to explain that was 7 years ago. I'm not saying Boldin sucks...just not top 10. Top 20! ;)
Actually top 15 more than likely.

He did have 100 receptions in 2005 also. Boldin is a legitimate number 1 WR, Not a 2 masking as a 1

^ moss is steve smith without the mouth

Moss is good but let's not get carried away here.

Telling me that I'm incorrect or that I misremember or whatever doesn't make me less correct. I was just stating facts, re: the Broncos offense. That's how they played it, straight from both game film (first hand -- what I studied, and second hand -- what others study). It's not a disagreement, if you didn't already know this, you're overselling what you know of last year's Broncos offense.

Clearly though, you've seen Marshall's 12.3 YPC average, and thinking that that makes him the next Terrell Owens (14.9 career, 14.5 SF), or Randy Moss (15.6), or Vincent Jackson (17.2) or Jimmy Smith (14.3) or Greg Jennings (16.1). Maybe some day, he will catch Anquan Boldin (12.8).

Marshall is probably top thirty. At least, statistically he is one of the thirty most explosive receivers in football. He ranked 24th, 42nd, and 30th in DYAR the last three years (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16433/brandon-marshall). He ranked 14th in expected points per play last year (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=WR), but that was mostly due to a high # of targets -- he ranked 32nd in the same category per play. He ranked 19th in 2007 and 37th in 2008.

But for a guy who has never ranked in the top ten in any value statistic in any one season of his career, I'm not sure how anyone can put him in their top ten. For a guy who is at the top of his craft in catches, you'd like him to match those catch totals in something more meaningful. But for Marshall, either he's just not being used properly (by two coaches, including our own), or there's just not much else there.

I think I'd rather have Brandon Marshall on this team than Joey Galloway, because he's a better receiver. But I wouldn't ever give Brandon Marshall more than a one year contract: only fools would hitch themselves to that wagon. He's one of the most immature athletes I've ever seen.

Per Football Outsider's website (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods):

DVOA is still far away from the point where we can use it to represent the value of a player separate from the performance of his ten teammates that are also involved in each play. That means that when we say, "Larry Johnson has a DVOA of 27.6%," what we are really saying is "Larry Johnson, playing in the Kansas City offensive system with the Kansas City offensive line blocking for him and Damon Huard selling the fake when necessary, has a DVOA of 27.6%."

Case in point, Andre Johnson has had only one season with a top 10 DYAR ranking (#1 in 2008) and with his career average of 13.5 he's no match for Vincent "The Invincible" Jackson.

Per Football Outsider's website (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods):



Case in point, Andre Johnson has had only one season with a top 10 DYAR ranking (#1 in 2008) and with his career average of 13.5 he's no match for Vincent "The Invincible" Jackson.Right, and correctly addressed, but that one season in 2008 isn't meaningless. I don't think Johnson is quite as dominant year-to-year as others do, but he was the best receiver in football in 2008, and if I remember correctly, he was pretty highly rated in 2004 as well.

But EVERY year, Johnson rates above Brandon Marshall. This is because he's better in every way, shape, and form. Like Marshall, he sees a crap ton of targets. And he does a lot more with them.

So I don't think he's less great because he sometimes rates lower in some years. I think Marshall is mediocre because he's very consistently in the middle of the pack despite having the most opportunities. There is no longer any question who Brandon Marshall is.

If you want to directly argue that Brandon Marshall is within 1.3 yards per catch of Andre Johnson, who I rated as the second best receiver in football, I think that's defensible. But when you multiply that over an entire season, you're now looking at 160-230 yards difference (and multiple TDs) over the exact same opportunities. That's probably close to a win/year difference between Johnson and Marshall. And only a handful of wide receivers are worth as much as a win per year. Johnson is likely one.

So, I think, is Vincent Jackson. I think that if we added him, you could add up to a prorated win to our prediction if/when we had him.