Fantasy Tips

What do you do about Sidney Rice? This is my first year also, and I drafted him - had totally missed the injury stuff. So now do I waive him, or just hold him on the bench and hope?
Pick up Bernard Berrian if he's available. Or, see if you can sucker someone into a trade.

Well since this is the Fantasy Thread I just had my draft Friday, I picked 6th and this is what I ended up with. We use IDP's by the way.

QB-Aaron Rogers
Carson Palmer
RB-Cedric Benson
Darren McFadden
Jerome Harrison
Cadillac Williams
WR-Greg Jennings
Eddie Royal
Mohammad Massaquoi
TE-Tony Gonzalez
Tony Scheffler
LB-Patrick Willis
Rolando McClain
Brian Orakpo
Nick Barnett
DL-Darnell Dockett
DB-Adrian Wilson
-Roman harper
Erik Coleman
K-Nate Kaeding

Now my WR game is some doo doo after Greg Jennings. I'm gonna grab Kenny Phillips, a D-Lineman from somewhere, and Marko Mitchell out of Free Agency today (starts at 12:00 pm) and I have some trades in the works already but we can't start trading til 12 anyway. What do you all think of my team. Who would you look to dump ? Where can I improve ?

Really it all depends on how league's scoring is set up. You can't definitively say take a QB first, or take a RB first. And of course what slot you're picking in matters too. Not sure I would take someone like Brees with a really high first round pick. In most leagues he's going to be there in round 2, maybe even round 3. And if you're in a points per reception league, a RB that racks up a lot of catches is going to be a high priority.

It does, but most leagues now are 4 pts for throwing a TD, so at quarterback it groups them together easier. I feel also the first 2 rounds you gotta go with consistency, meaning I usually dont do 1 hit wonder picks or i rate players higher with longer track records than bust out players the previous year. Last year taking Matt Forte or Steve Slaton in the top ten was a pretty bad move.

The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.

I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.

There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.

Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:

- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.

- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.

- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.

- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.

- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.

Mike Williams - WR Tampa Bay

He's a rookie, but already looks like their best receiver. They've got to throw to somebody. Won't be a fantasy starter in all likelihood, but a great guy for depth who you can grab at the end of your draft.

So wait, I see that MonkFan drafted a few defensive players. I thought (by the way, I have the rules for my league tucked away, I just wanted to stop by Warpath for a primer) if you drafted a defense you had to draft an entire defense, not individual players?

Another question about drafting defensive players, do you draft guys who have the ability to score TD or produce sacks, which in turn gives you points? Is that the idea?

Damn Schneed my head just exploded, but thanks for the analysis and break-down.


Interesting point about Manning too, because I know everyone will try to take him, AP or Chris Johnson with their first pick.

Seems like most here think Moss and Portis could be good picks in the right round(s).

The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.

I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.

There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.

Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:

- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.

- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.

- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.

- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.

- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.

You might like this:
Joe Bryant - Principles of VBD (http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm)

"The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position."

1. The object of the game is not to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent. You must fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your opponent is to build a team of players that outscore their peers. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player draft example where I can't lose after drafting the 20 point WR.

2. Factors such as the specific number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen players, and scoring system for your league dramatically effect the values of each player. These factors can cause the same player in two different leagues to have dramatically different values.

So wait, I see that MonkFan drafted a few defensive players. I thought (by the way, I have the rules for my league tucked away, I just wanted to stop by Warpath for a primer) if you drafted a defense you had to draft an entire defense, not individual players?

Another question about drafting defensive players, do you draft guys who have the ability to score TD or produce sacks, which in turn gives you points? Is that the idea?

No you don't 12th. Only if your league uses Individual Defensive Players or IDP's. Generally you draft a Team Defense. Most likely you are using Team D's so you want to look for more prolific defenses. You want to make sure that you are getting points so whover get's a lot of turnovers, sacks, TD's. Check the scoring that your league is using and you can judge better off of that.

Damn Schneed my head just exploded, but thanks for the analysis and break-down.


Interesting point about Manning too, because I know everyone will try to take him, AP or Chris Johnson with their first pick.

Seems like most here think Moss and Portis could be good picks in the right round(s).

In my opinion, everyone's top 3 should be the same:

1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Maurice Jones-Drew

After that you can debate 4/5/6 between Ray Rice, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore.

7 & 8 should be Brees and Rodgers, but if you think your league is sleeping on their value then pass on them in the late first and try to get them in the high second round.

Then Andre Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson should be in the 9/10/11 conversation.